Iran Nation or Cause

“Iran-Israel news: ’Heavy cyberattacks’ hit nuclear facilities; pagers and walkie-talkies BANNED on Iranian flights,” Livemint, 10-12-24.

The Wall Street Journal broke this story after Oct. 7, but others wouldn’t or couldn’t confirm.  Now, after a year, the NYT follows.  “Iran was aware of Hamas’s plan to launch October 7 attack – NYT,” Iran International, 10-12-24.  “Documents seized by the Israeli military and verified by The New York Times show senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya discussed the plan with IRGC commander Mohammed Said Izadi in July 2023.”  The story does not say what the documents are, how they were obtained, or why it took so long for the NYT to report its findings.

Similar reporting, “Hamas wanted Iran to join in Oct 7 attack, secret minutes reveal,” Telegraph, 10-12-24.  “Hamas tried to convince Iran to join in the Oct 7 terrorist attacks on Israel, minutes of secret meetings have revealed. The terror group’s leader Yahya Sinwar attempted to persuade Iran and Hezbollah to join the assault or the broader conflict with Israel after the raid, documents seized by the Israeli military show. The minutes, which were obtained and reported by the New York Times, show Hamas first plotted to carry out the attack in autumn 2022. Documents from 10 secret meetings of political and military leaders before the attack on Oct 7 2023, reveal that the terrorists delayed the plan, which they codenamed  “the big project”, amid efforts to convince Iran and Hezbollah to take part. … The green light for the Oct 7 attack was also given because Hamas wanted to disrupt efforts to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.”

A country-based groundswell can have an effect.  “Iran overturns death sentence of labor activist Sharifeh Mohammadi,” VOA, 10-12-24.

Iranian military and energy infrastructure.  Nuclear facilities?  “U.S. officials say Israel has narrowed down its targets for strike on Iran,” NBC, 10-12-24.

“Iran’s parliament speaker meets with Hezbollah officials, Lebanese PM,” Times of Israel, AFP, 10-12-24.

“US slaps sanctions on Iran’s ‘ghost fleet’ of oil tankers, citing attacks on Israel,” Times of Israel, 10-12-24.

More cooperation.  “Iran sends satellites to Russia for rocket launch, Tasnim reports,” Reuters, 10-12-24.

“Iran has a hit list of former Trump aides. The U.S. is scrambling to protect them,” Politico, 10-11-24.  For those media outlets and individuals complaining that Pres. Trump is not threatened, they ignore what the FBI says, and they ignore stories like this from the left-leaning Politico about the efforts by Iran to apparently kill as many as 50 former Trump administration officials.  ““This is extraordinarily serious,” said Matt Olsen, the Justice Department’s assistant attorney general for national security. “Iran has made it very clear that they are determined to seek retaliation against former officials in connection with the Soleimani strike.”  …  “Some of those officials are now spending hundreds of thousands of dollars each year on security for themselves and their families.”  …  “Those who ordered the murder of General Soleimani as well as those who carried this out should be punished,” Khamenei posted on his social media account nearly a year later, in December 2020. “This revenge will certainly happen at the right time.”  …  “This is historic, and different and new,” said a former senior Trump administration official with knowledge of the Soleimani killing. “We’ve never had former senior national security officials, a Cabinet member, that have had this risk profile from a foreign adversary.”  …  Four people who spoke with POLITICO cited the example of Salman Rushdie, the Nobel Prize winning author. Thirty-four years after Iran’s supreme leader ordered Rushdie’s killing over a novel he claimed insulted Islam, a would-be assassin stabbed Rushie 15 times onstage at an event in New York. “When they put these fatwas out, they’re like for life,” said the first senior national security official.  …  In addition to Trump, who receives Secret Service protection as the former president, at least seven former generals, diplomats and civilian policy advisers from his White House receive a 24/7 government security detail, according to the people who spoke to POLITICO. Sometimes a single security detail includes roughly a half-dozen people.  The list is dominated by those with direct ties to the Soleimani killing or high-up in the Trump administration: Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense; Mark Milley, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Paul Nakasone, head of NSA and U.S. Cyber Command; Kenneth McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command; Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State; and Brian Hook, the State Department’s Special Representative for Iran.  …  This July the FBI arrested an Iranian operative who had entered the U.S. in an effort to arrange the assassination of “a political person” in retaliation for Soleimani’s death, the Justice Department has said. The individual, a Pakistani national, even remotely scouted a Trump rally.”

Iran Air is still at it.  Israel will have to decide how to ground these planes.  “Iran’s national airliner accused of flying weapons to Beirut airport for terror proxy Hezbollah: Report,” Fox News, 10-11-24.

“Putin owes Iran – he may be about to find out how much,” Telegraph, 10-11-24.  Pezeshkian and Putin met in Turkmenistan.

“Iran threatens to target US allies in Mideast if Israel allowed to use their military bases, airspace,” WSJ, 10-11-24.

“Moscow and Tehran share ‘very close’ worldview, says Putin as he meets Iran’s president,” Politico, 10-11-24.

“The Nasrallah killing is upending Iran’s security strategy. Here’s what to expect next,” Iran Source, 10-11-24.

“Iran and the collapsing axis,” Asia Times, 10-10-24.  “Iran faces big decisions after Israel targeted Axis of Resistance allies’ leading figures, fighters and resources.”

“Iran general’s whereabouts in question after Israeli strikes on Hezbollah,” Guardian, 10-10-24.  Produce his body.

“Iranian general who vowed to ‘see dead bodies of Americans all over the Middle East’ possibly killed in Israeli airstrike,” NYPost, 10-6-24.  Produce his body.

“‘Quds Force chief suffers heart attack in Iranian detention’,” JNS, 10-10-24.  Produce his body.

“Qaani is alive and is currently being interrogated in Iran, sources claim – report,” JPost, 10-10-24.  Produce his body.

“Exclusive: Esmail Qaani under guard and questioned as Iran probes Nasrallah killing,” MEE, 10-10-24.  Produce his body.

“Autocrats United: How Russia and Iran Defy the U.S.-Led Global Order,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10-10-24.

Blackmail?  Certainly a threat.  “Exclusive: Gulf states must not allow use of airspace against Iran, Iranian official says,” Reuters, 10-9-24.

“Iran warns of potential change in nuclear doctrine if Israel targets facilities,” Financial Times, 10-9-24.  Keep in mind that Israel’s actions do not force Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.  No country threatens Iran to need them.  Iran has all the oil and gas they need to be a modern and strong country.

“A Weakened Iran Still Has a Major Deterrent: the Nuclear Option,” WSJ, 10-8-24.  “In late September, a former head of Iran’s atomic agency, Fereydoun Abbasi, suggested that Tehran could start producing 90% enriched, weapons-grade uranium. U.S. officials have said it would take Iran less than two weeks to convert its current 60% nuclear-fuel stockpile into weapons-grade material. … While it claims its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes, Iran is the only nonnuclear weapons power that produces highly enriched uranium. It currently has enough near-weapons-grade fuel for almost four nuclear weapons, according to the most recent data from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran also has been conducting experiments with uranium metal, a key component of a nuclear weapon, and has cut back much of the international oversight granted by the nuclear deal.”

Again the NYT gets the story wrong.  Trump was right to back out of such a bad deal, an agreement that would actually lead to Iran having a nuclear program that produced a nuclear weapon.  Think of it this way—just because the U.S. backed out doesn’t mean that Iran had to decide to move toward weapons.  That is the definition of blackmail.  Or think of it this way—the Obama Administration believed in paying ransoms.  That the Trump Administration said no more ransoms was not a bad thing.  Or think of it like this—Obama’s JCPOA didn’t restrict Iran’s missiles, the same missiles it has used against the Middle East countries, against U.S. troops, and now against Israel.  And hey NYT, anytime you rely on Ben Rhodes for foreign policy advice, you’ve got a problem.  See “Iran Crisis Ignites New Debate About Trump’s Nuclear Deal Exit,” NYT, 10-8-24.

“Ex-soldier on trial accused of spying for Iran,” BBC, 10-8-24.

Notice the lack of evidence.  Only the word of a person who has probably been commanded what to say.  I wonder what this person, Quds Force deputy commander Iraj Masjedi, is thinking.  First, the U.S. eliminate his powerful predecessor Qassem Soleimani, then Israel eliminated the partner of the Quds Force, head of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah.  Is Masjedi next?  Don’t take that promotion.  And stay out of Lebanon.  I suppose the ultimate evidence of Esmail Qaani’s life will be a public appearance.  In the meantime, “The Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that a message from Qaani was conveyed to a conference in solidarity with Palestinian children held on Monday in Tehran, adding that the commander could not attend “due to his being in another important meeting.””  I wonder where that important meeting was?  If underground, is it now on one of Dante’s levels?  “Commander of Iran’s Quds Force is ‘in good health’, force’s deputy commander says,” Reuters, 10-7-24.

“Iran president set to meet Putin for first time as clash with Israel escalates,” Times of Israel, 10-7-24.

“Iran is increasingly desperate, retired US general says,” Politico, 10-6-24.  And the former CENTCOM commander Frank McKenzie “said he found it entirely believable that Iran’s leaders, driven by “desperation” as they seek to stay in power, could be targeting former President Donald Trump as he seeks to regain the presidency. “They view the election of President Trump as a direct threat to that regime preservation,” he said.”

“Iran’s Quds Force leader missing after Israeli strike in Beirut: Reports,” India Today, 10-6-24.  “According to reports, the Israeli airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburb Dahiyeh were targeted at Hashem Safieddine, the successor to slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Esmail Qaani was also reportedly present in Dahiyeh at the time.”  This begs the question—Why in the world would the Leader allow Quds Force leader Qaani to be in a place where Israel would attack?  That is very poor military judgment.  See also “Iran’s Quds Force chief out of contact since Beirut strikes, Iranian officials say,” Reuters, 10-6-24.

“Iran’s Khamenei decorates commander for Israel attack,” AFP, VOA, 10-6-24.

“Murder for hire: Inside Iran’s proxy war with Israel in the West,” USA Today, 10-6-24.  “Since 2020, there have been at least 33 assassination or abduction attempts in the West in which local or Israeli authorities allege an Iran link, Reuters found in an examination of court documents and public statements by government officials.”

Almost makes your head spin—then you realize this is Iran, tying two (it has many) of its important proxies together, in a confused but real effort to release Sinwar and figure out how to replace Nasrallah.  “Iran open to cease-fire efforts in Lebanon — if Israel stops bombing Gaza,” Politico, 10-5-24.  BTW, this story carries the rare example of an exception within an exception to the international law humanitarian standard for not attacking non-military targets—the IDF struck Hezbollah operatives at a command center inside a mosque in southern Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil, within the Martyr Salah Ghandour Hospital compound.  What’s next for Hamas or Hezbollah to violate under the laws of war?  Maybe a Red Crescent office within a school within a mosque within a hospital?

“Benny Gantz: What the World Needs to Understand About Iran,” NYT, 10-5-24.  “Iran’s religious leadership is devoted to exporting its fundamentalist ideology, driven by the pursuit of hegemony and captivated by the thought of its opponents’ violent subjugation. I ask that other nations not make the same mistake we made and underestimate this component of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s calculus.”

He really is fortunate that Israel didn’t time his appearance while he was outside.  The Supreme Leader also said nothing about most of his ballistic missiles being shot down, nor that they were destroyed by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United States, United Kingdom, and France.  “In Rare Appearance, Khamenei Says Iran ‘Won’t Back Down’ As Israel Strikes In Beirut,” Iran International, 10-4-24.

But give the Leader some credit for his approx. 300 missile attacks on civilians and military sites, about 30 missiles got through.  “Iranian missiles hit Israeli military sites, visuals show,” WPost, 10-4-24.

What about China, and its cover for Iran?  This slows Iran from changing its behavior.  “China Buys Nearly All of Iran’s Oil Exports, but Has Options if Israel Attacks,” NYT, 10-4-24.

This would be a great move, and to pressure Iran to change its actions long-term—stop supporting proxies!  Real governments don’t use proxies!  Normal countries have allies, which means the other country is a sovereign state and not under the control of another.  “Scoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah’s weakness to elect new Lebanese president,” Axios, 10-4-24.

This limited success (no serious damage at the base nor planes lost, but over 30 missiles landed) will embolden Iran.  And BTW, the anniversary of Oct. 7 is coming.  “Iranian Missiles Overwhelmed Israeli Defenses at Some Sites, Analysts Say,” WSJ, 10-4-24.  “Unlike April 13, when Iran fired a large number of slower cruise missiles and drones, Tuesday’s barrage was made up exclusively of some 180 much faster ballistic missiles, one of the largest such strikes in the history of warfare. Analysts say that most of these projectiles were Iran’s most modern ballistic missiles, the Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan. “The faster the missile, the harder it is to intercept it, that’s simple physics,” said Ulrich Kühn, head of research for arms control at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, Germany. “It’s certainly much harder to defend against ballistic missiles, and even more so if there is a bulk of them coming in on a certain target, because then you have the ability to overwhelm the antimissile defenses—which is exactly what happened in Israel.” Satellite images of a target on Tuesday—the Nevatim air base in southern Israel, home to its F-35 jet fighters—show that as many as 32 Iranian missiles managed to land within the base’s perimeter, according to analysis by professor Jeffrey Lewis, at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, Calif.”

Will this change Iran’s behavior?  In other words, if SA and Israel normalize, will Iran deradicalize?  No.  Iran’s creation in 1979 and its constitution and laws and then military set-up and bureaucracy, etc., etc. resulting in a governmental political culture is to spread the Shia revolution, and spread it in a violent, intimidating way.  Although the masses disagree, they don’t hold the bicycle chains and the guns.  The Supreme Leader has no reason to change even if the Crown Prince of SArabia sees what is the better path forward for his (Sunni Muslim) country and the region.  See “Kushner has held talks with MBS on US-Saudi diplomacy, Israel normalization,” Times of Israel, 10-4-24.  The other big news in this story is, implicitly, that NSA Jake Sullivan has okayed these talks between Jared Kushner and MBS.

“Iran’s supreme leader warns it ‘won’t back down’ in Israel fight,” USA Today, 10-4-24.

“Iranian supreme leader praises missile attack on Israel, saying Iran will do it again if necessary,” AP, 10-4-24.

Iran has blocked a Lebanese president (and some semblance of democracy) for too long.  “Scoop: U.S. wants to use Hezbollah’s weakness to elect new Lebanese president,” Axios, 10-4-24.

“Clutching a rifle, Khamenei delivers rare public sermon in Arabic,” I24, 10-4-24.

“Missile attack on Israel lays bare deep divisions among Iranians,” BBC, 10-3-24.

“Iran warns of ‘unconventional response’ in case of new Israeli attack,” Al Jazeera, 10-3-24.

“Map shows possible Israeli targets in Iran,” CNN, 10-3-24.

“Why Israel Is Worried About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions,” WSJ, 10-3-24.