Iran Nation or Cause

“USS Abraham Lincoln carrier not yet in CENTCOM amid Iran drone threat warnings – report,” I-24, 1-26-26.  What will happen here, finally, is that when swarming is suspected, those small cigar ships will be blown out of the water pre-emptively.  They will have already had a warning to stay away.  Under these conditions, Iran has gone past the swarming circle of acceptability, here they are a danger and have gone on too long.  But here’s the update later on 1-26, “U.S. Carrier Lincoln Arrives in Middle East Amid Iran Tensions,” WSJ, 1-26-26.  For some reason, it really does feel like the Supreme Leader’s time has come.

Notice what Amnesty says, “January 2026 marks the deadliest period of repression by the Iranian authorities in decades of Amnesty’s research. Impunity for the repeated commission of crimes under international law committed by the Iranian authorities during previous protest crackdowns has fuelled [sic.] this latest round of violence.”  Amnesty International itself implicitly blames a lack of force in response as empowering the Regime in past crackdowns.  See “What happened at the protests in Iran?,” Amnesty International, 1-26-26.

Iran International carries this story, “After the crackdown: is there a way back for Iran’s rulers?”, and it does not appear so.  1-26-26.  A “breakdown in political legitimacy, elite cohesion, and state capacity” seems to be the situation now.

Another billboard paid for with funds that could help everyday Iranians.  “Iranian authorities unveil new billboard in Tehran warning US against taking military action,” Euronews, 1-26-26.

“Iran detaining protesters being treated in hospitals as part of crackdown, says UN expert,” Retuers, 1-26-26.

“Iran’s shadow fleet is fueling the Myanmar junta’s air war,” AP, 1-26-26.  Incredible reporting.  “Iran has secretly shipped vast amounts of jet fuel to Myanmar’s military. As the junta ramps up bombing raids against civilian targets, Iran is now the military’s primary supplier of jet fuel and urea, which is an ingredient in Myanmar’s munitions. The deliveries violate Western sanctions on both countries.”

“Iran’s biggest centres of protest are also experiencing extreme pollution and water shortages,” The Conversation, 1-26-26.

“Iran regime reportedly issued nationwide shoot-to-kill orders as protest death toll surges,” Fox, 1-26-26.

“US weighs ‘precision strikes’ on Iranian officials as military build-up surges, sources say,” MEE, 1-26-26.

“After mass killings, bodies of Iran’s slain leveraged to quash dissent,” Iran International, 1-26-26.

“Hizbullah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has been humbled,” Economist, 1-26-26.

“Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen threaten new attacks as US aircraft carrier arrives,” AP, 1-26-26.

“New Iran videos show bodies piled in hospital and snipers on roofs,” BBC, 1-26-26.

Over 30,000!  Terrible.  And this is per the Ministry of Health, the Regime itself.  The Supreme Leader must be incensed the numbers have been leaked. “Iran health officials say death toll far exceeds official figures during protests – report,” I24, 1-25-26.

“More than 36,500 Iranians were killed by security forces during the January 8-9 crackdown on nationwide protests, making it the deadliest two-day protest massacre in history. … [In addition] Images released from morgues leave little doubt that some wounded citizens were shot in the head while hospitalized and undergoing medical treatment.”  These were “finishing shots.”  See “Over 36,500 killed in Iran’s deadliest massacre, documents reveal,” Iran International, 1-25-26.  This is perhaps the most shocking entry of my writing this blog since 2018.  It may also represent the “finishing shot” for the Islamic Republic of Iran Regime.

“Why Turkey and Qatar need the Iranian regime to survive,” Ekathimerini, 1-25-26.

Remember, she should never have been at Emory in the first place.  Larijani has been a leader in the Regime and Parliament for years, and unless we hear otherwise she and other relatives are not opposing what happens in Iran, they are simply living here in safety and abundance.  This is not a question of academic freedom, etc.  “US university fires top Iran official Ali Larijani’s daughter amid Washington-Tehran tensions,” New Arab, 1-25-26.

That’s the spirit.  “Iran judicial chief says protest instigators to receive no leniency,” Times of Israel, AFP, 1-25-26.  Uh, but he made a mistake, he implicated the IRGC and other Regime actors when he said, “justice entails judging and punishing without the slightest leniency the criminals who took up arms and killed people, or committed arson, destruction and massacres.”  But I bet no Iranian agents will be prosecuted, only persons they shot or beat or burned or assaulted or massacred.

“U.S. Central Command Head to Coordinate With Israeli Defense Chiefs Ahead of Possible Iran Strike,” Haaertz, 1-24-26.

Actually, he’s been underground for weeks.  “Iran’s Khamenei moved to fortified Tehran bunker amid US strike fears,” Ynet, 1-24-26.  See also “Report: Khamenei moved to underground bunker in Tehran,” I-24, 1-24-26.  I-24 cited Iran International with “the supreme leader’s third son Masoud Khamenei has taken over day-to-day management of the leader’s office, functioning as the de facto main channel for coordination vis-à-vis the executive branches of the government and the security forces.”  I would imagine son and father are not talking via phone or other electronic device fearful their messages can be intercepted but also traced to a location in the tunnels, so messenger is carrying information..

“‘Change is inevitable’: What is next for Iran?,” Al Jazeera, 1-24-26.

“Iran Update, January 24, 2026,” 1-24-26.

“Trump says US still ‘watching Iran‘ as ‘massive’ fleet heads to Gulf region,” Al Jazeera, 1-23-26.

Sick.  The Ayatollah is being cursed for his forcing people to dig through corpses to find their loved ones he ordered shot.  I’m not making this up.  “The Final Indignities Inflicted on Iran’s Protest Victims,” NYT, 1-23-26.  Quote of the Day—“The word hatred is not strong enough to signify what people are feeling. It’s over.”

“The night Iran went dark: Witness accounts and video reveal violence inflicted during Iran’s internet blackout,” CNN, 1-23-26.

“UN rights chief says Iranian security forces followed wounded protesters into hospitals,” I24, 1-23-26.

“Video Emerges Of Bodies In Rasht After Crackdown By Iranian Security Forces,” RFE/RL, 1-23-26.

“All of a sudden, Putin is willing to throw Iran under the bus,” FDD, 1-23-26.

“Iran deployed militarized crackdown to hide protest killings – Amnesty,” Iran International, 1-23-26.

“An exiled crown prince says he can lead Iran to democracy, but Trump hasn’t endorsed him,” NBC, 1-23-26.

The headline is the general view among many persons, and is the main theory on timelines for despotic regimes.  However, the article explores the two routes a coup would follow after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is “disappeared” suddenly from the scene.  “How the Iranian Regime Breaks: Elite Fracture Will Come Gradually and Then Suddenly,” Foreign Affairs, 1-22-26.  Another way of saying this is non-normal countries have little prediction of a way forward for their people, thus little benefits to understand.  A battle of power occurs whenever there is a (made) vacuum.

“Hope for the future of Iran,” George W. Bush Center, 1-22-26.  “People now see that equal rights can only be achieved if the Islamic Republic is not there. … Right now, Iranians are really looking to the outside world because they feel that it is their only hope for change. They feel they cannot do it by themselves anymore. And I feel the world is not even doing the bare minimum. For example, Europe has exhausted all options of diplomacy…statements and condemnations – and it is clearly not enough. They have tried diplomacy for decades. The same is true for the United States. I think what the public needs to understand is that this is not only about Iran. It is about the Middle East. It is about a region that could be more peaceful, where people could live more equally and peacefully, without external forces telling them that one ideology or one group of people is superior to another. And the thing is that the Islamic Republic – not Iran – the Islamic Republic defines itself in part by being an enemy of the United States and an enemy of Israel. Imagine that this country could instead become an ally under a different kind of government.”

Oh great.  Remember, freedom of speech doesn’t mean you have to pay (or host) for it.  “Yale hosts controversial speaker Trita Parsi accused of promoting Iranian regime interests,” Fox, 1-22-26.

Much worse than the Parsi story, this is a Putin story.  It looks like he helped Iran keep quiet the news of the killings.  “Putin’s ‘Kill Switch’—Russian Tech Shuts Down Starlink In Iran,” Forbes, 1-22-26.

Military buildup.  “Inside the US military’s massive buildup ahead of possible Iran strike,” JNS, 1-22-26.

Ah, tell that to the protesters.  Or make suggestions to help them.  “Trump Has Options in Iran. None Are Likely to Help Protesters Much,” WSJ, 1-22-26.

“… the distinct possibility that Iran’s ethnics might secede, chiefly the larger ones with kin across borders.”  Good point.  … in reality nobody outside is actually or substantially helping defend the populace against the regime’s onslaught. … For Russia, Iran helps bottle up Central Asia geographically, its trade and pipelines etc, thereby leaving a vast landmass dependent on Moscow’s stranglehold. Also Tehran supplies Shahed drones for use in Ukraine. In short, Putin is not about to let democracy take over in Iran.”  See “Defending A Much-Hated Opinion About The Benefits Of A Fractured Iran,” Forbes, 1-22-26.

“[M]any of the victims’ injuries were so severe they could not be identified.”  This was due to sniper shots to the head and machine gun fire also directed at the upper torso and head.  And to beatings.  See “Photos leaked to BBC show faces of hundreds killed in Iran’s brutal protest crackdown,” BBC, 1-21-26.

“Iran’s Protests Have Been Completely Squashed, Government Says,” NYT, 1-21-26.

Next to the Abraham Accords, this type of movement is not what the “un”normal Regime supports, group movement toward peace in the Middle East.  It will be interesting to see what public statement Iran makes.  “8 Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, announce joint decision to join Board of Peace,” Times of Israel, 1-21-26.

“Iran vows mass retaliation to attack, taunts Europe over US Greenland push,” Times of Israel, 1-21-26.

There are several casualty numbers, maybe from a dozen sources, with the Regime’s 3,117 being the lowest (no surprise), to perhaps 25,000 killed.  And well over a quarter million injured, astounding.  “Iran offers first government-issued death toll from protest crackdown, one far lower than activists’ number,” NBC, 1-21-26.

Not like SA to complain before.  They are feeling the heat of how the ISI treats its people who protest.  “South Africa raised concerns with China over Iran’s participation in naval drills,” AA, 1-21-26.

“Media blackout in Iran: at least one media outlet suspended, silence from the country’s other independent newsrooms,” Reporters Without Borders, 1-21-26.

“Iran accused of sex assaults on teenage prisoners, while families charged to recover remains of loved ones,” Fox, 1-21-26.

“Iran shuts 40,000 Starlink stations to block internet access,” MEMO, 1-21-26.

“Witkoff: US Not Currently Negotiating With Iran,” RFE/RL 1-21-26.

“An American Aircraft Carrier Is Still on the Way to Iran,” National Interest, 1-21-26.

“Iran Is Still Offline. Will Access To The Global Internet Ever Be Restored?,” RFE/RL, 1-20-26.  “Iranians are living through one of the longest Internet shutdowns in history, with the authorities imposing a digital blackout since launching a bloody crackdown on antiestablishment protesters on January 8. … Filterbaan, an Iranian digital rights organization affiliated with the Texas-based Miaan Group, says the Islamic republic’s Internet policy has crossed into “absolute blockage,” with disconnection now the default and access granted only selectively. … A government official vowed on January 19 that Internet access would return to “normal” by the end of the week. But the news website IranWire reported on January 15 that government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access would not be available until at least the Persian New Year in March.”  Sound like it would be advisable for the U.S., the UN, anything that starts with the letter U, or anyone to demand that Iran allow the internet freely or there is a consequence.

Just as the Regime did not learn (and change) from the disastrous 12-day June War, the Regime is not learning from the latest serious civil unrest.  Instead it doubles down.  “Iran ‘just getting started’ on punishing ‘rioters’ arrested during protests,” Al Jazeera, 1-20-26.

“Iranian parliament warns of jihad if Supreme Leader is attacked, ISNA,” Reuters, 1-20-26.  Wait a minute.  Didn’t the Supreme Leader y say Jihad is not part of the Five Pillars?

And in response.  “Trump says Iran would be ‘wiped the off face of this earth’ if something happens to him,” The Hill, 1-20-26.

“Khamenei has systematically eliminated or neutralized every figure within the system who showed signs of independent authority or reformist ambition.”  It just occurred to me, the following persons are ending their life in hiding in tunnels—Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Khamenei.  Bad way to go, and a sign of poor leadership.  See “Iran’s coming reckoning: Regime collapse is likely — democracy is not,” Middle East Institute, 1-20-26.

Not sure why the WSJ would volunteer its pages for the ISI FM who supported killing protesters (he says they are rioters; regardless their sentence was self-selected).  For “waging war against Allah” the punishment the government meted out was death.  See “Iran’s Government Defends Its Crackdown,” WSJ, 1-20-26.  Quote of the Day—Iran FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi, “Unlike the restraint Iran showed in June 2025, our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack.”

“Cracks Are Emerging in Iran’s Once-Resilient Oil Sector,” RFE/RL, OilPrice.com, 1-20-26.

“Sudden deadly fusillade on Iran protesters culminated in Rasht bazaar inferno,” Iran International, 1-20-26.

“Trump Seeks ‘Decisive’ Options for Iran as Assets Move Into Middle East,” WSJ, 1-20-26.

“Iran’s president warns US attack on supreme leader would mean ‘full-scale war’,” Times of Israel, 1-19-26.  “A Sunday Times report, based on information from doctors in Iran, said more than 16,500 people were killed and more than 330,000 injured during the unrest. An Iranian official said authorities had verified at least 5,000 people had been killed in protests, including about 500 security personnel. … The first high-level meeting on a potential military response was chaired by US Vice President JD Vance on January 9, reported Axios. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi contacted top Trump envoy Steve Witkoff that same weekend to open a de-escalation channel. Trump chaired his first meeting on the protests on January 13, and was presented with several options for strikes, including from US naval ships and submarines. According to Axios, Trump chose his favorite option and ordered preparations to be completed. According to a US official, a strike plan was ready that day but not approved.”

“Can the US end the communication blackout in Iran?,” ABC, 1-19-26.  “Activists are lobbying for direct-to-cell service in Iran.”

“Hackers target Iran state TV satellite transmission to broadcast exiled crown prince,” AP 1-19-26.

“Iran Mulls Return Of Internet As Extent Of Deadly Crackdown Slowly Leaks Out,” RFE/RL’s Radio Farda, 1-19-26.

“Why mass protest alone has not toppled Iran’s rulers,” Iran International, 1-19-26

An important piece.  Let’s shut down the financial lifeline.  “In a report last October, the Treasury Department gave an address for the problem, stating that “companies based in the U.A.E. (99 percent of which were located in the Emirate of Dubai) transacted the highest volume of [Iran’s] potential shadow banking funds . . . and received more funds than any other jurisdiction.” This system keeps the Iranian regime alive with Dubai serving as its economic lung. … How much money is involved? United Against Nuclear Iran, the leading tracker of Iranian oil exports, estimates that Iran sold 609 million barrels of oil to China in 2025. At $50 a barrel (a conservative estimate), those sales would have generated $30.45 billion. Iran’s shadow banking system has been operating in its current form since 2019, when the first Trump administration designated Iran’s central bank as a terrorist entity, forcing Iran to externalize its financial operations. It’s how the Islamic Republic survives sanctions, pays its security services, and underwrites the lavish lifestyle of its elite while ordinary Iranians absorb the cost of economic collapse.”  See “Hit Iran in Its Shadow Bank Accounts,” WSJ, 1-19-26.

“After Iran’s massacres, tensions grow inside the regime,” Economist, 1-19-26.

“Iran protests stretch into fourth week as blackout, security pressure persist,” Iran International, 1-19-26.

“Analysts warn that the Iran crisis carries potential nuclear risks. Here’s what to know,” PBS, 1-19-26.

This story is wrong on so many levels.  “Iran gives “young people who became unwittingly involved” in protests 3 days to surrender, for “leniency”,” CBS, 1-19-26.  Where are the protesters and critics in the U.S. who have complained about various issues?  They need to decry these truly serious events in Iran.

“UN representative says Iran’s death toll is rising and there could be investigations into ‘crimes against humanity’,” ABC, 1-19-26.

“Videos Emerge Showing Brutal Tactics Of Iranian Security Forces,” RFE/RL, 1-19-26.

“Killed, blinded, stranded: dispatches from Iran’s bloody crackdown,” Iran International, 1-19-26.

“Iran’s Spiritual Revolution,” Times of Israel, 1-19-26.

“Iran crackdown left 16,500 dead, 330,000 injured – Sunday Times,” Iran International, 1-18-26.  Horrible.  Don’t read the following if you are squeamish.  “The doctors’ report said most deaths occurred over two days during what it described as the most violent phase of the crackdown in the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history, with most victims believed to be under 30. Professor Amir Parasta, an Iranian-German eye surgeon and medical director of Munich MED, told The Sunday Times the data was gathered through doctors communicating via smuggled Starlink satellite terminals after internet access was cut on January 8. “This time they are using military-grade weapons,” Parasta was quoted as saying, adding that doctors were seeing gunshot and shrapnel wounds to the head, neck and chest. He said at least 700 to 1,000 people had lost an eye. Figures compiled from eight major eye hospitals and 16 emergency departments cited in the report put the number of injured between 330,000 and 360,000. One Tehran eye hospital, Noor Clinic, documented around 7,000 eye injuries alone, according to the report. An ophthalmologist quoted by The Sunday Times said the volume of pellet-related eye injuries had overwhelmed hospitals. Another witness cited said more than 800 eye removals were performed in a single night in Tehran. Medical sources said some patients died due to blood shortages, with one surgeon quoted as saying security forces had at times prevented blood transfusions. Witnesses who spoke to The Sunday Times described security forces firing live ammunition at protesters, including shots aimed at heads, and deploying snipers on rooftops. Accounts also described the use of Kalashnikov rifles and machineguns mounted on vehicles.”

“Senior Iranian UN diplomat in Geneva defects, seeks asylum in Switzerland,” I24, 1-18-26.  “According to the report, several other Iranian diplomats have discreetly contacted European authorities in recent weeks to explore the possibility of seeking asylum.”

“’All options on the table’: US boosts presence in Middle East as Iran strike remains possibility,” JPost, 1-18-26.

Credit the Ayatollah and his desire for control.  “Why Iran’s regime, facing internal and external threats, has no clear leader in waiting,” NBC, 1-18-26.

“World Economic Forum invites Iranian foreign minister to Davos after regime slaughter of Iranian civilians,” Fox, 1-18-26.

“United Against Nuclear Iran says WEF ignored letter urging exclusion of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi,” Fox, 1-18-26.

“Trump halted Iran strikes amid ally concerns, logistical hurdles, diplomatic breakthrough: Report,” MEMO, 1-18-26.

“Fears grow that Iran’s internet blackout may turn permanent to weaken dissent,” NYPost, 1-18-26.

Don’t do it solely on his request.  “Exiled crown prince urges world to help protesters topple Iran’s government,” BBC, 1-17-26.

“Iran’s supreme leader acknowledges thousands killed as pressure builds on clerical rule,” NPR, 1-17-26.

The internet blackout continues.  “Iran enters uneasy calm after deadly anti-regime protests,” AP, AFP, 1-17-26.

“Protests in Iran appear to have slowed as Khamenei claims Trump personally ‘encouraged’ unrest,” NBC, 1-17-26.