On this story, and headline (which is the theme of this blog), The Atlantic is correct.  “Iran Is Not a ‘Normal’ Country,” The Atlantic, 2-2-24.  “Iran’s break with the West should not be surprising: It is the culmination of a trajectory that began even before the Islamic Revolution. The antipathy of Iranian Islamists toward the United States, Israel, and the core principles of Western liberalism was clear in 1979, when radicals seized the U.S. embassy and held its personnel hostage for 444 days. It was clear when the Islamic Republic established Lebanese Hezbollah to destroy Israel soon after. And it was in full evidence in 1989, when Iran’s then–supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, issued a global call for the assassination of the writer Salman Rushdie, on the grounds that his novel offended Islam.”

Tricky.  How the Regime manipulated the International Crisis Group and the Iran Experts Initiative for its own purposes, and to mask its progress on the nuclear program.  “How Iran used its ties to a top global NGO,” Semafor, 2-2-24.

Harakat al-Nujaba, not Kataib Hezbollah.  “Iran-backed proxy group threatens more attacks on US troops,” Fox, 2-2-24.

“Report to Congress on Iran and U.S. Policy,” USNI News, 2-2-24.  This is the 1-26-24 CRS report, “Iran: Background and U.S. Policy.”

“Iran claims it discovered ‘dozens’ of Israeli spies around the world,” JPost, 2-2-24.

Considering that for years Iran would not admit that its IRGC officers were in Syria, maybe Reuters should be brave and ask when they arrived.  Also, Iran is pulling these officers because they can’t protect them.  “Exclusive: Iran’s Guards pull officers from Syria after Israeli strikes,” Reuters, 2-1-24.

The USG has telegraphed “a series of strikes over a number of days against targets — including Iranian personnel and facilities — inside Iraq and Syria.”  See “Plans for U.S. strikes on Iranian personnel and facilities in Iraq, Syria approved after Jordan drone attack,” CBS, 2-1-24.

“Exclusive: Iran’s Guards pull officers from Syria after Israeli strikes,” Reuters, 2-1-24.

“Iran Faces US Lawsuits Over Role In October 7 Atrocities,” Iran International, 2-1-24.

“US intelligence officials estimate Tehran does not have full control of its proxy groups,” Politico, 2-1-24.

The NYT is reaching, especially due to the article (about the four nuclear plants) immediately following in this blog.  Sanger can do better.  He writes, “The move suggests that Tehran may be trying to ease tensions with the United States.”  See “Iran Slows Production of Enriched Uranium, the U.N.’s Nuclear Watchdog Says,” NYT, 2-1-24.

“Iran begins building 4 more nuclear power plants,” AP, 2-1-24.  This was admonished by the IAEA.

“Iran-backed Houthi launch three attacks in Red Sea, Gulf of Aden as tensions escalate; US military responds,” Fox, 2-1-24.

“Exclusive: US believes drone that killed soldiers was Iranian-made, sources say,” Reuters, 2-1-24.

“Iran Executes At Least 28 People In Ten Days As Executions Continue,” Iran International, 2-1-24.

Great article about the balancing of Iran—when should it attack, when should it not.  The article is also a reminder of why Hezbollah hasn’t fully attacked Israel yet after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.  Nasrallah doesn’t want Israel to invade Lebanon and openly war against Hezbollah, and Nasrallah doesn’t want to die.  “Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Faces Moment of Truth After Attacks on Israel, U.S. Base,” WSJ, 1-30-24.

If KH did the attack on Tower 22, this is an attempt to beg for a ceasefire.  “Powerful Iran-backed militia in Iraq to suspend military ops against US forces in region,” CNN, 1-30-24.  “[T]he most powerful Iran-backed militia in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, announced on Tuesday the suspension of its military operations against US forces in the region two days after a drone attack killed three US service members and wounded dozens of others.”

“Iran Update,” Institute for the Study of War, 1-30-24.

“Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah says it suspends attacks on US forces,” Reuters, 1-30-24.

Despite the best efforts of Iran to sow discord through its proxies in the region and by its Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Saudi Arabia just met with Egypt, Jordan, and the PA to emphasize “moving forward with normalization of diplomatic ties with Israel.”  See “Saudis, Egypt, Jordan, and PA meet in secret to discuss future of Gaza – report,” Jerusalem Post, 1-29-24.

“U.S. troops killed, wounded in Jordan attack blamed on Iranian proxies,” WPost, 1-29-24.

The King is concerned that Iran will attack Jordan in a variety of ways.  This story is an appeal for missile defense, for Patriots from the U.S.  “Reuters: Jordan alerts Washington to bolster its defences against Iranian-backed militias,” Ammon News, 1-29-24.

“’Erase his head from his torso’: Iran targets defector on US soil, DOJ says,” USA Today, 1-29-24.  “An Iranian and two Canadian nationals were indicted over an alleged plot to murder an Iranian defector and another Maryland resident on U.S. soil, the Justice Department announced Monday. The three alleged conspirators were part of a criminal network targeting Iranian dissidents at Tehran’s direction, according to the department. One defendant, Damion Patrick John Ryan, is a “full-patch member” of the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club, the department said. The plot unfolded from about December, 2020 to March, 2021, according to an indictment filed in Minnesota federal court.

“The United States and United Kingdom Target Iranian Transnational Assassinations Network,” U.S. Department of Treasury, 1-29-24.

“Iranian intelligence used narco trafficker to recruit Hells Angel for planned assassination,” The Record, 1-29-24.

Iran really wants to be attacked on its own soil.  “Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan, more than 30 injured,” CNN, 1-28-24.  “Three US Army soldiers were killed and more than 30 service members were injured in a drone attack overnight on a small US outpost in Jordan, US officials told CNN, marking the first time US troops have been killed by enemy fire in the Middle East since the beginning of the Gaza war. “We shall respond,” President Joe Biden said while speaking in South Carolina on Sunday. The killing of three Americans at Tower 22 in Jordan near the border with Syria [near the al-Tanf base on the Syrian side] is a significant escalation of an already-precarious situation in the Middle East. Officials said the drone was fired by Iran-backed militants and appeared to come from Syria. It is still being determined which militia group specifically is responsible. US Central Command confirmed in a statement Sunday that three service members were killed and at least 34 injured in a one-way drone attack that “impacted at a base in northeast Jordan.””

“‘We shall respond’: Biden warns militants after 3 US troops killed in Jordan,” Politico, 1-28-24.

“Iran Seizes Vessel Carrying ‘Smuggled Fuel’,” RFE/RL, Radio Farda, 1-28-24.

“Iran launches 3 satellites into space as tensions rise,” NPR, 1-28-24.

“Iran To Equip Hovercrafts With Long-Range Missiles,” Eurasia Review, 1-28-24.

“Houthis and Iran are hurting China’s Red Sea trade,” Asia Times, 1-28-24.

“Iran’s Parliament Triples Budget for State Broadcasting, Sparks Controversy,” Iran News Update, 1-27-24.

“Iran-Backed Houthis Continue Red Sea Attacks Hitting Oil Tanker,” Iran International, 1-27-24.

“Iran dismisses European condemnation of satellite launch,” Reuters, 1-27-24.

“Iran’s Parliament Triples Budget for State Broadcasting, Sparks Controversy,” Iran News Update, 1-27-24.

“Iran-Backed Houthis Continue Red Sea Attacks Hitting Oil Tanker,” Iran International, 1-27-24.

“Iran dismisses European condemnation of satellite launch,” Reuters, 1-27-24.

“Iran Update, January 27, 2024,” Critical Threats, 1-27-24.

This is a decision for world order and against the chaos that the Iranian Regime pushes, just as they pushed South Africa and tried to push world opinion against justice and peace.  “World Court Rejects Demand for Gaza Cease-Fire,” WSJ, 1-26-24.  “The Gaza order stands in contrast to another Genocide Convention case, when in March 2022 the ICJ instructed Russia to cease its military operations in Ukrainian territory. In that order, approved by a similar 13-2 vote, the world court gave no credit to Russia’s claims to have invaded Ukraine in self-defense. In both the Gaza and Ukraine cases, the ICJ’s overwhelming votes appeared to reflect much of world opinion: distress about the human cost of Israel’s Gaza operation while recognizing Israel’s right of self-defense, but outright rejection of Moscow’s pretexts for invading Ukraine. Judges voting for the court’s full order came from countries that have supported Israel, including Australia, France and Germany, as well as from Arab and developing nations aligned with Palestinian cause, such as Brazil, Lebanon, Morocco and Somalia. Judges from America’s rival superpowers, China and Russia, joined the majority, as did the temporary judge South Africa appointed to sit on the case. … Only the Ugandan judge, Julia Sebutinde, dissented across the board. … The U.S. and other Western nations have dismissed the genocide charge against Israel as unwarranted. Speaking earlier this month in Tel Aviv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the accusation “particularly galling, given that those who are attacking Israel—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, as well as their supporter, Iran—continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”

These two stories reveal the differences between a normal country and one not.  And they also demonstrate the underlying principles of the U.S., that even with an enemy a message was relayed by the USG to value life.  Of course, one can take the position that it is in the interests of the U.S. to be seen in a good light.  But I would argue that we didn’t do this to look like a good guy, but that if it helps our relationship with the Iran government than fine, but the Biden Administration did this because at its base this was the right thing to do.  (and we warn multiple other countries of things often BTW).  See “U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack,” WSJ, 1-26-24.  So, who do we believe, the U.S. or Iran?  When I’ve asked this question over the years, one country has over time on any difference come out as conveying accurate information.  “Iran denies receiving warning from US ahead of ISIS bombings which killed 95 people,” Times of Israel, 1-26-24.  Despite the olive branch warning, you’ll recall that even the IRGC head Salami and other high-ranking Iranian officials claimed that Great Satan U.S. and Little Satan Israel were responsible for the ISIS attacks.

“Iran officials told the Chinese that they weren’t in control of the group and that turmoil in the region would end if Israel agreed to a cease-fire, the Iranians said.”  Think about it—Iran says they can’t control the groups, but Iran knows how they act.  Hmm.  See, “Houthis Attack U.S. Warship as China Urges Iran to Rein In Rebels,” WSJ, 1-26-24.

“France, Germany, UK condemn Iran’s launch of Soraya satellite,” Reuters, JPost, 1-26-24.

“Iran Update, January 26, 2024,” Critical Threats, 1-26-24.

“Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah: The Danger From Iran And How To Stop It,” Forbes, 1-26-24.

“After UAV attack, IDF hits Hezbollah airstrip said built by Iran to launch drones,” Times of Israel, 1-25-24.

“Exclusive-China Presses Iran to Rein in Houthi Attacks in Red Sea, Sources Say,” Reuters, USNews, 1-25-24.

“Iran Ignored US Warnings Of Impending ISIS Attack,” Iran International, 1-25-24.  “The US passed the warning to Iran more than one week before the Kerman attack” … “of the warning that Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, planned to commit the attacks at the commemoration ceremony of slain Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani.”

“Iran: Rouhani’s ban from key assembly unveils power struggle among political elite,” MEE, 1-25-24.

“Iran, Niger sign 2 cooperation agreements,” Xinhua, 1-25-24.

“Iranian Drones Become Latest Proxy Tool in Sudan’s Civil War,” Bloomberg, 1-24-24.  This follows the recent story about Iran recognizing South Sudan.  Iran isn’t acting with clean hands.

This is a telling set of stories about lack of accountability and who gets the power in Iran.  There aren’t very many “moderates” in at the highest levels of  Iranian authority.  But there are types of political Shia conservatives.  Rouhani is not seen as a hardliner because he was willing to (secretly at first) negotiate with the U.S.  But here he is being kept out of future discussions and who can run for the legislature.  “Iran bans ex-president Rouhani from running for elite assembly,” Reuters, January 24, 2024.  “Iran’s hardline Guardian Council has banned former pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani from standing again in an election in March for the Assembly of Experts, which appoints and can dismiss the supreme leader, state media said on Wednesday.  The 88-member assembly, founded in 1982, supervises the most powerful authority but has rarely intervened directly in policy-making.  Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 84, so the new assembly is expected to play a significant role in choosing his successor since its members are only elected every eight years.  Close to moderates, Rouhani was elected president in a landslide in 2013 and 2017 on a promise to reduce Iran’s diplomatic isolation.  But the mid-ranking cleric angered political hardliners who opposed any rapprochement with the U.S. “Great Satan” after reaching a 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers.  The deal unravelled in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the agreement and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy. Efforts to revive the pact have failed.  “There was no reason given for the Guardian Council’s decision,” a source close to Rouhani told Reuters, adding that “no decision has been made yet for an appeal” as Rouhani has three days to object.  “Rouhani has been a member of the assembly since 1999 for three terms … It will be interesting to see what the reason for his disqualification was.”  The 12-member Guardian Council, which oversees elections and legislation, disqualified 80% of candidates running for the assembly in its last election in 2016.  Moderate politicians have accused the Guardian Council of disqualifying rivals, and said that excluding candidates from the race undermines the vote’s legitimacy.  A low turnout for the upcoming elections is expected, with Rouhani saying last week that the majority of people do not want to vote and that this will favour the ruling minority which relies on low turnout.  With Rouhani’s disqualification, the Guardian Council had made it clear that hardliners intended to keep moderates away from the assembly, a pro-reform insider said.  The Guardian Council has also disqualified hundreds of hopefuls running for the parliamentary election also to be held on March 1. State media reported that only 30 mid-ranking moderate candidates have been qualified to stand for the 290-seat parliament. Around 12,000 hopefuls will run for parliament, state media reported.”

“Iranian leader heads to Turkey to talk Gaza war with Erdogan,” Times of Israel, 1-24-24.  The Regime wants Turkey to cut trade and relations with Israel.

“Deciphering the shadow war between Iran, Israel,” Hindustan Times, 1-24-24.

“US Navy shoots down missiles targeting American cargo ship,” USA Today, 1-24-24.

“U.S. Issues $15 Million Bounty Targeting Alleged Iran Drone Middleman,” WSJ, 1-24-24.

“Turkey, Iran agree on need for regional stability amid Israel’s war on Gaza,” Al Jazeera, 1-24-24.

“Iran drones become latest proxy tool in Sudan’s civil war,” Al Arabiya, 1-24-24.

“Iran’s State TV Aims For Hefty Election Campaign Profits,” Iran International, 1-24-24.