We’ll let News.AZ have a turn appearing in the blog, but you can find this story everywhere about the head of the IRGC who has been in hiding since the end of February.  Well, really before that, too.  His own people want him gone.  Here’s the story, a reminder from Ahmad Vahdi that for the rest of the Regime’s life it will not be a moderating or normal country.  “IRGC chief vows revenge for Supreme Leader Khamenei’s killing,” News.AZ, 7-10-26.

“Live updates: Iran reportedly plotted to target Trump; independent election board Dems fired,” The Hill, 7-10-26.  “It comes as reporting indicates a security threat reportedly prompted the Secret Service to have Trump depart Turkey on an older Air Force One, which is believed to have more defensive measures than the newer, Qatari-gifted one.”  The Qatari jet doesn’t have some of the missile defense abilities as the previous Air Force One, and the Iranians know this.  See also “Israel warns US of new Iranian plot to assassinate Trump as tensions in region grow – report,” JPost, 7-10-26.

“U.S. demands Iran affirm Strait of Hormuz is fully open after exchange of strikes, officials say,” The Hill, 7-10-26.  Under the MOU, Iran is supposed to leave Hormuz open.  Let it be known that we all see this serious violation.

Another MOU violation, if true.  “CNN Exclusive: New satellite imagery reveals Iran may be rebuilding suspected nuclear facilities,” CNN, 7-10-26.

Bad news, but not unexpected.  “US sees Iran nuclear deal as increasingly unlikely – WSJ,” Iran International, 7-10-26.  “The Trump administration believes the chances of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran are diminishing. … US officials said that if Iran cannot abide by the interim agreement which provided Tehran with financial benefits in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, there is little hope of reaching a far more complex nuclear deal.”

An update on the possible futher progress of the Abraham Accords, which Iran is doing everything it can to scuttle, including backing the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas against Israel.  See “Saudi Arabia’s Challenge to the Abraham Accords,” JINSA, 7-10-26.  “This [current] Saudi assessment of Israel and Iran as equally destabilizing forces is politically powerful, but it rests on a false equivalence. Iran is revisionist in its regional purpose: it seeks to reorder the Arab world through proxies, missiles, nuclear threat, and coercive control of maritime chokepoints. Israel, after October 7, became revisionist in its operational method: it no longer accepts prior constraints on the use of force against threats it judges existential. The Saudi strategy rests on collapsing these into a single category.”

“Iran Hatched Fresh Plot to Kill Trump, Israel Told U.S.,” WSJ, 7-9-26.

“Ali Khamenei buried as US signals Iran talks may continue,” Iran International, 7-9-26.  Pres. Trump did not let the heightened threats derail the negotiations.

“Live updates: Trump says Iran ceasefire is ‘over’ after new attacks, but negotiations can continue,” NBC, 7-8-26.

“Explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr area in southern Iran – Iranian media | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 7-8-26.

“Tehran targets Bahrain and Kuwait after U.S. strikes,” AP, 7-8-26.

“Iranian official issues warning to Trump over new threats: ‘We have no red lines’,” The Hill, 7-8-26.

“Iran’s environmental catastrophe has also wrecked its economy,” Times of Israel, 7-8-26.

“Mass Mournings In Qom, Where Khamenei Ruled Supreme Over Iran’s Clerics,” NYT, 7-7-26.  About 20% of citizens support the Ayatollah, as reported elsewhere on this blog.

“Resistance and revenge – Iran wanted to send a message with its farewell to Khamenei,” BBC, 7-7-26.

“Trump says U.S. will win Iran war “one way or the other” as Tehran holds funeral for supreme leader,” CBS, 7-7-26.

Al Jazeera shows in this article its irresponsible reporting at times.  Here it repeats a Tehran analyst that there are mines near Oman, and does not rely on other reporting that the way is clear, and that other ships have transited it, leaving readers with the distinct impression that warning shots were not heeded by the two tankers, and that the IRGC actually saved them from destruction.  What a farce.  See “Saudi, Qatari tankers hit as Strait of Hormuz risks worsen,” Al Jazeera, 7-7-26.

This is the best newspiece I’ve seen today on the Supreme Leader’s funeral, an interview by NPR of Kian Tajbakhsh (teaches IR at NYU).  “Iranian-American scholar discusses ayatollah’s funeral and country’s future,” NPR, 6-6-26.  There is little consent in what we are seeing, that maybe only 20% of the country supports the Regime; 60% don’t support the government.  And the last time we saw so many in the streets they were brutaly suppressed.  The message of “Death to America” (in English) is real.  The Regime has not learned its lesson, will refuse to join the community of nations, and will use the Hormuz Strait against the world.  They will continue to aim for death, pressure, terror, and revenge.  They want long-term Iranian domination in the region.  The cease-fire negotiations will continue to struggle.

Iran International remains a great source.  Here are several articles from today.  Iran International, 7-6-26.  “ANALYSIS:  The end of one-man rule? Iran tests life after Khamenei,” “As Iran adjusts to life after Ali Khamenei, a question once considered unthinkable is moving into the open: is the role of Supreme Leader itself being redefined? For nearly half a century, the Islamic Republic has rested on one central principle: the Supreme Leader has the final word. … [Now] Vice President for Executive Affairs Mohammad-Jafar Ghaempanah argued that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s views were subject to institutional review rather than automatic implementation.”  And “Qatari LNG tanker among ships hit near Strait of Hormuz – WSJ.”  And “Iran’s costly farewell for supreme leader draws backlash.”  And “Nearly a third of Hormuz vessels take Oman route – CNN.”  And “Pezeshkian greeted with ‘death to compromiser’ chants at Khamenei funeral.”  And “Iraq’s top Shia cleric [Sistani] unable to lead Khamenei funeral prayer due to ill health.”  And “Ghalibaf says Khamenei’s killers will be punished.”  It is this last article that I draw your attention.  “Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said those responsible for the killing of Ali Khamenei would be punished, adding that the “final step of revenge” would be realized through the “liberation of Jerusalem.”  In a message marking Khamenei’s funeral procession in Tehran, Ghalibaf said Iranians had spent the past four months chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” and demanding revenge against what he called “the killers of our martyred imam.”  So, terror continues, attacks against the U.S. will continue, and the aim is to capture Jerusalem.

“Iran resumes attacks in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. says,” Axios, 7-6-26.  “Iran’s military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night.”  About 30% of pre-war shipping is getting through daily now.

You ask “What is going on with Iran attacking ships unprovoked?  They are moving through Hormuz on the Oman side, refusing to set a precedent and later fee to Iran for passing through an international strait.  So Iran is letting them have it.  It is blackmail, pure and simple.  Pass through on my side (and pay me) or I will shoot you.  See “US strikes Iran in retaliation for targeting three commercial vessels in Hormuz | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-6-26.  Wisely, “US revokes a general license that allowed Iranian oil sales, after calling Iran’s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz ‘wholly unacceptable’.”

“Israel fortifies border with Jordan as Iran seeks new terror path,” Fox, 7-6-26.  Quote of the day, despite the IRGC’s efforts.  “We have the same agenda as Jordan: To keep the border peaceful.”

“Iran’s Most Favored Strait of Hormuz Nation Is China,” WSJ, 7-6-26.  Very concerning that “Beijing will receive a friends-and-family deal in transiting the waterway.”  “Speaking in Beijing on Saturday, Iran’s Ambassador to China said his regime “will definitely charge service fees” to transit the Strait. But China and other Iranian friends may receive “special considerations” regarding the level and type of fee. Iranian foreign policy will be the determining factor for global energy flows.”  Here are my thoughts, again—the strait has to be open or blackmail and piracy overtake international affairs.  We see that smart vessels are taking the Oman route, turning off transponders, using U-turns, and relying on U.S. protection.  Look at this statement from the WSJ—“Iran’s grant of favored passage to China underscores that the axis of U.S. adversaries continues to work together to the detriment of U.S. interests.  Tehran depends on Beijing to buy its oil and reconstitute its missile program.  Moscow sends military hardware and intelligence in exchange for mass-produced Iranian drones and munitions.  An Iranian-owned Strait could well grant free passage—for them.”

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.  “Cargo vessel in Red Sea reports coming under attack, UK maritime body says,” CNBC, 7-5-26.

“Khamenei’s other sons appear at his funeral in Iran as new supreme leader remains in hiding,” AP, 7-5-26.

“Eulogist at Khamenei funeral in Iran calls for death of Donald Trump,” Euronews, 7-5-26.

I certainly have nothing in common with the hardliners.  (BTW, Happy July 4).  But note that some of them and I are continuing to say “Show yourself.”  This story today from the Times of Israel indicates the continuing split among those who say he is alive and in control and by others who say he is dead or being used by those immediately around him.  This is so mysterious—Who is calling the shots for the Regime?  Who is physically with him?  The FM and Parliament head certainly are not going in and out and seeing him and getting directions, as they are publicly negotiating with the U.S. and can by seen physically by others.  They are not disappearing to some underground hospital room.  Here is the story, “Iran said to bar Mojtaba Khamenei from father’s funeral, fearing Israel could kill him,” Times of Israel, 7-4-26.  “Officials nixed supreme leader’s request to perform burial rites for his father and predecessor Ali Khamenei, as Mojtaba’s public absence fuels conservative infighting, NYT says.”  Think about that—someone is telling the Supreme Leader what to do?  I don’t think so.

“Khamenei funeral processions begin in absence of world leaders, his sons,” Iran International, 7-4-26.

Like out of a comic strip.  “Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthi officials attend funeral ceremonies for Iran’s Khamenei,” France 24, 7-4-26.

“Yemen’s Houthis threaten Saudi targets over Iran flight to Sanaa,” Reuters, 7-3-26.

“Iran war updates: Day one of Khamenei funeral ends, Israel bombs Lebanon,” Al Jazeera, 7-3-26.

This blog will continue to mention here not just the need for Iran to move toward being a normal country, but roadblocks and countries creating difficulties.  Hence this story.  Yes, at the first of the Feb. War the leadership was targeted.  But at some point, and as we reported, the U.S. created a short protected list of Iranian negotiators.  This list was shared by Pakistan.  It is important for Israel to not kneecap negotiating abilities of Iran.  See “U.S. Officials Believed Israel Was Plotting to Kill Iranian Negotiators,” NYT, 7-2-26.

“Iran Has Another Path To The Bomb. Trump Needs To Close It Off,” Forbes, 7-2-26.  “Now, after three decades of operation, Bushehr has generated a substantial stockpile of spent nuclear fuel. Henry Sokolski, a leading nuclear expert who runs the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, has estimated that today Iran “probably has roughly 2,100 kilograms of weapons-usable plutonium” at Bushehr, which is enough material “to make more than 200 bombs.” The Iranian regime, moreover, is exceedingly capable of doing so. As Sokolski explains, the technical steps needed to convert plutonium into bomb cores are not fundamentally more difficult than those involved in weaponizing uranium. Both involve turning the material into metal, casting it, and machining it into a usable core. The key difference lies in the process for converting the fissile material to be bomb usable (chemical reprocessing in the case of plutonium, rather than enrichment, which can be done covertly and in small batches). Moreover, the timeline for doing all this is roughly analogous as well – a matter of weeks, once the fissile material is in hand. … Iran’s plutonium stockpile is situated in spent-fuel pools at Bushehr.”

“Iran warns oil tankers to use approved routes in Strait of Hormuz or face a ‘forceful response’,” PBS, 7-2-26.

“Iran’s flex in Strait of Hormuz puts Trump on back foot,” The Hill, 7-1-26.

“June 30, 2026 – Witkoff, Kushner meet Qatari PM, Oman delivers Strait of Hormuz proposal,” CNN, 7-1-26.