Iran tries to assassinate another official. “Israeli commander placed under security after Iran-backed assassination plot,” Iran International, 11-4-24.
“High-powered warheads: Iran planning more aggressive attack on Israel, officials say – WSJ,” JPost, 11-4-24.
“Iran wants to hold region hostage with ‘retaliation op’ – analysis,” JPost, 11-4-24. Frantzman writes another great article.
$1.2 Billion is the bar which the Biden Administration set. “U.S. says Iranian-American journalist held in Iran as tensions grow after Israeli attack on country,” The Hindu, 11-3-24. Iran detained Reza Valizadeh, a former employee for U.S. government-funded broadcaster “Radio Farda, an outlet under Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that’s overseen by the U.S. Agency for Global Media. In February 2024, he wrote on the social platform X that his family members had been detained in an effort to see him return to Iran.” … “Since the 1979 U.S. Embassy crisis, which saw dozens of hostages released after 444 days in captivity, Iran has used prisoners with Western ties as bargaining chips in negotiations with the world. In September 2023, five Americans detained for years in Iran were freed in exchange for five Iranians in U.S. custody and for $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets to be released by South Korea.”
“After a member of the Basij allegedly assaulted her, attempting to tear off her clothes, the student began to protest by stripping down to her underwear and walking around the Islamic Azad University’s Science and Research Branch.” See “Iranian forces abduct woman over protest against harassment,” Medya News, 11-3-24.
It turns out that Reza Valizadeh has been held for months. “US-Iranian journalist believed to have been detained in Iran,” Guardian, 11-3-24.
“US blames Assad’s reliance on Russia, Iran for loss of Aleppo control,” Ynet, 11-3-24.
Hezbollah keeps shooting missiles, since Oct. 7, 2023, into Israel at Iran’s bidding. “Back-to-back deadly rocket attacks hit Israel: Projectiles from Lebanon crashed into an agricultural area in Metula, Israel’s northernmost town, killing four foreign workers and an Israeli farmer, local officials said Thursday. Hours later, the Israeli military reported another volley of some 25 rockets from Lebanon, striking an olive grove in a suburb of the northern Israeli port city of Haifa. That strike killed a 30-year-old man and 60-year-old woman while wounding two others, said Magen David Adom, Israel’s main emergency medical organization. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are backed by Iran, Israel’s regional adversary. Hezbollah did not immediately claim responsibility for Thursday’s rocket fire. Israel’s military said 90 projectiles were fired from Lebanon on Thursday. Hezbollah has been firing thousands of rockets, drones and missiles into Israel —and drawing fierce Israeli retaliatory strikes — over the past year since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of the Gaza Strip triggered Israel’s devastating war in the Palestinian enclave.” See “Rocket fire from Lebanon kills 7 in Israel as US officials try to push for cease-fires,” AP, 11-1-24.
Can Baghdad really reel in Iran’s proxies? ““Iraq trying to reel in Iran-backed groups to prevent confrontation with Israel,” Times of Israel, Reuters, 11-1-24.
“Iran adviser hints at expansion of missile range, nuclear doctrine review after Israel strikes,” Reuters, 11-1-24.
The world needs to again challenge, no condemn, Iran’s declaration. Forever it seems that the IRI has said they were not working toward nuclear weapons. And the Supreme Leader has repeatedly said he issued a fatwa (he has never displayed it) that it is against Shia Islam for Iran to have or use nuclear weapons. “Iran says it has the capacity to make nuclear weapons; supreme leader threatens U.S. and Israel,” NBC, 11-1-24. “Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Khamenei, said Iran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons and is prepared to change its policies on using them if faced with an existential threat, as the the country engages in a high-stakes tit for tat with Israel. Kharrazi also said the country is likely to increase the range of its ballistic missiles. “If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine. We have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard,” Kharrazi told the Lebanese broadcaster Al Mayadeen on Friday. Kharrazi added that “the only thing currently prohibiting this is the leader’s fatwa.” Khamenei issued a fatwa, or religious ruling, against nuclear weapons in 2003.”
“Iran adviser hints at expansion of missile range, nuclear doctrine review after Israel strikes,” Reuters, 11-1-24.
The world needs to again challenge, no condemn, Iran’s declaration. Forever it seems that the IRI has said they were not working toward nuclear weapons. And the Supreme Leader has repeatedly said he issued a fatwa (he has never displayed it) that it is against Shia Islam for Iran to have or use nuclear weapons. “Iran says it has the capacity to make nuclear weapons; supreme leader threatens U.S. and Israel,” NBC, 11-1-24. “Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Khamenei, said Iran has the capacity to produce nuclear weapons and is prepared to change its policies on using them if faced with an existential threat, as the the country engages in a high-stakes tit for tat with Israel. Kharrazi also said the country is likely to increase the range of its ballistic missiles. “If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine. We have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard,” Kharrazi told the Lebanese broadcaster Al Mayadeen on Friday. Kharrazi added that “the only thing currently prohibiting this is the leader’s fatwa.” Khamenei issued a fatwa, or religious ruling, against nuclear weapons in 2003.”
“Iranian leader Khamenei said to order reprisal attack on Israeli military sites,” Times of Israel, AFP, 10-31-24. “NYT says decision made after briefing on extent of damage caused by Israel retaliatory strike; separate report claims Iraqi militias will fire drones, missiles for Tehran.”
Remember, Iran attacked with 180 ballistics. Then Israel retaliated against S-300s and missile solid fuel machines. Now, if Iran attacks again it can’t be in retaliation as they may claim; it will be a new round of violence. See “Iran preparing major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, Israeli intel suggests,” Axios, 10-31-24.
We will see how Tehran reacts. “Israel took out primary Iranian air defenses, left it ‘essentially naked’ – report,” Times of Israel, 10-30-24. “Sources tell Fox News airstrikes destroyed remaining three S-300 batteries; Israeli official says ‘majority of Iran’s air defense was taken out’. … The four Russian-made S-300 air defense systems that Israel has reportedly destroyed in strikes on Iran this year — one in April, and three this past weekend — had been the only such systems possessed by the Islamic Republic as of the beginning of this year. … The tally matched that of a Wall Street Journal report on Sunday that said all of Iran’s S-300s are now out of action. … US President Joe Biden’s senior Mideast adviser Amos Hochstein was also cited as saying on an internal call that “Iran is essentially naked” and vulnerable to potential future aerial attacks. Israel has previously been reported to have also taken out other air defenses surrounding key energy facilities, as well as hitting drone-production sites and key long-range missile-production facilities containing solid fuel mixers that will take at least a year to replace, hampering Iran’s ability to repeat its two missile attacks on Israel this year. However, Iran has attempted to downplay the damage caused by the airstrikes, and on Wednesday local media cited Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh as saying missile production has not been disrupted. “The enemy has sought to hurt both our defensive and offensive systems but was not very successful because we had made arrangements and were in the know,” he said. … Two American researchers told Reuters last week that Israeli airstrikes hit buildings that Iran used for mixing solid fuel for ballistic missiles and that this “may have significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles.” The attacks on the air defenses caused “deep alarm” in Iran, The New York Times has reported, citing three unnamed Iranian officials — one from the country’s oil ministry — since it rendered defenseless Khuzestan Province’s Abadan oil refinery, Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex and an adjacent major port, as well as the Tange Bijar gas field in the Ilam Province. The S-300 has a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) and the capability to track down and strike multiple targets simultaneously. It is considered one of the most potent air defense weapons in the world and can be used to shoot down missiles as well as aircraft. Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities came weeks after an October 1 attack in which Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, sending most of the population rushing to bomb shelters and safe rooms. It caused relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas, and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank. The Iranian attack came days after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime Hezbollah leader. Iran said the missiles were also a response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an explosion in Tehran in July widely attributed to Israel.”
“Corruption on Earth” is the catch-all. “Iran executes German-Iranian dissident,” BBC, 10-30-24.
“How Israel Could Be Changing Iran’s Nuclear Calculus,” The Atlantic, 10-30-24.
“Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base,” AP, 10-29-24. Israel’s brilliant retaliation strikes are showing the significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities. Iran appears to be naked to air attack, and unable to add to its solid fuel missile stock.
“Iran plans to increase military budget by 200 percent,” Al Jazeera, 10-29-24. Iran’s military spending in 2023 was $10 billion.
“What we know about Israel’s attack on Iran,” BBC, 10-29-24. Targets comprised Iran’s air defences, missile and drone production, and launch facilities. Two researchers, analysing satellite imagery, told Reuters news agency that Israel had struck buildings in Parchin, a military complex near Tehran, and may have “significantly hampered Iran’s ability to mass produce missiles”. So, who’s telling the truth? (there is a long track of history on this)—“Iran has largely played down the impact of the strikes – which hit sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces – saying most missiles were intercepted and those that were not caused “limited damage”.”
Iran has selected another proxy and short-term Hezbollah leader. “Hezbollah names Naim Qassem as new leader, Israel says he won’t last long,” Reuters, 10-29-24.
“Satellite Images Suggest Israel Struck a Major Iranian Missile Plant,” NYT, 10-29-24. Analysts said the Shahroud Space Center was likely used to produce intermediate-range ballistic missiles that could be used to target Israel. “Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who has been tracking that site since 2017, said it was used to build solid-propellant rocket motors that can be used in space technology, but which are also commonly used for ballistic missiles. … Solid propellant is useful for weapons systems because it can be stored longer, and because rockets that use it can be launched more quickly than ones that rely on liquid propellant.”
“Iran officially denies upcoming delivery of Su-35 fighters,” BulgarianMilitary.com, 10-29-24.
“Iran plans to raise military budget by around 200%, government spokesperson says,” Reuters, 10-29-24.
“North Korea Is a Surprisingly Valuable Wartime Ally to Russia and Iran,” Newsweek, 10-29-24.
“Elon Musk’s X blocks Khamenei’s account after Iran supreme leader’s message in Hebrew,” NYPost, 10-29-24.
“Germany recalls ambassador from Iran, protesting execution of Iranian-German prisoner,” AP, 10-29-24.
“The Covert War for American Minds: How Russia, China, and Iran Seek to Spread Disinformation and Chaos in the United States,” Foreign Affairs, 10-29-24.
“[D]egraded Iranian air defenses and weapons facilities.” See “Israel met ‘all its objectives’ in strike; Iran vows response,” WPost, 10-27-24
Actually, Iran shouldn’t respond. Iran attacked first, Israel retaliated. “Analysis: Iran faces tough choices in deciding how to respond to Israeli strikes,” AP, 10-27-24.
“Israel’s strikes on Iran reportedly hit air defence systems protecting energy sites,” Guardian, 10-27-24.
“Right?” Like, self-defense? “Iran’s Leaders Stress Their Right to Respond to Israel’s Strikes,” NYT, 10-27-24.
“Live updates: Israel says it has completed strikes on Iran; Tehran says damage is limited,” NBC, 10-26-24. NBC should contrast the 200 Iranian ballistic missiles versus the targeted airstrikes by Israel–which country is acting more in line with international law and within the requests by the international community–to first ask will this become a larger regional war (apparently not thanks to Israel’s actions) but more importantly whether the instigator (Iran) will curb its revolutionary ways. Iran still has time to act more like a normal state, but the Supreme Leader and the 40-plus year system created will have difficulty backing down.
“Israel attacks Iran military targets, Tehran says damage ‘limited’,” Reuters, 10-26-24.
What normal countries do, well extraordinary countries do. Iran can take note. “Israel structured Iran strike so that Tehran could deny damage done – report,” JPost, 10-26-24.
“Israel strike crippled Iran’s missile production, sources say,” Axios, 10-26-24. “Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran took out a critical component in Iran’s ballistic missile program, according to three Israeli sources. Why it matters: The destruction of the equipment severely damages Iran’s ability to renew its missile stockpile and could deter Iran from further massive missile strikes against Israel, the sources said. The sources said Israel hit 12 “planetary mixers” used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles, which make up the bulk of Iran’s missile arsenal. A senior U.S. official confirmed that the strike cripples Iran’s missile production capability. Between the lines: The Israeli sources said the mixers are highly sophisticated equipment that Iran cannot produce on its own and must purchase from China. Remanufacturing the mixers could take at least a year, the sources said. While Iran still has a big stockpile of ballistic missiles, Israeli sources say the fact that Iran can’t produce new ballistic missiles would also limit its ability to replenish the ballistic missile stockpiles of its proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Driving the news: Israeli sources said the attack also hit four S-300 air defense batteries that were in strategic locations and protected Tehran and nuclear and energy facilities in Iran. The Iranian military said in a statement that the Israeli strike was conducted from Iraqi air space and added that several radar systems suffered limited damages that are in the process of being repaired. … Israeli sources confirmed the strikes were conducted from Syrian and Iraqi air space, some of them close to the Iraqi border with Iran. The sources said the Israeli air force attacked a factory for the production of drones and conducted a “symbolic” strike on a facility in the city of Parchin that was used in the past for the research and development of nuclear weapons.”
“Israel launches attacks on Iranian military targets,” Politico, 10-25-24. “Israel has launched a series of airstrikes on military targets inside Iran in the latest exchange in the escalating conflict between the two countries. The airstrikes, announced by the Israel Defense Forces as they were still taking place early Saturday local time, came in response to an Oct. 1 Iranian attack on Israel with around 200 ballistic missiles that struck military bases and civilian infrastructure this month. The IDF said in a statement that its strikes are “in response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel.”
