This lets us ask the age old question again, Why are there Iranian soldiers in Syria?  If you answer that correctly, you know what is the largest problem in the Middle East at present.  “IRGC colonel reportedly dies after wounded in alleged Israeli strike in Syria,” i24, 8-15-24.

“Woman shot by Iran police over hijab paralyzed, family told to stay silent,” Iran International, 8-15-24.

“Israel Wants to Trap Iran’s ‘Ghost Fleet,’ the Oil Tankers Financing Its Axis Under the Radar,” Haaretz, 8-15-24.  “A Haaretz investigation found that the Iranian tankers are registered by straw companies around the world and turn off their transponders to conceal their operations.”  …  “Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has issued seizure orders for 18 Iranian oil tankers affiliated with the Iranian regime that are used to finance operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Quds Force and Hezbollah.”

“The Real Reason Iran Hasn’t Retaliated Against Israel,” OilPrice.com, 8-15-24.  “Analysts said the idea Iran is delaying its retaliation because it is relishing the psychological impact it is having is more of an excuse than a proper strategy. They agreed intense domestic debates, the complexity of coordinating with proxies, and assessing the risks associated with an attack have all contributed to Iran’s hesitation. Zimmt [Raz Zimmt, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv] said Iran is “facing a major dilemma” because while Khamenei and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) want to restore Iran’s deterrence vis-a-vis Israel, there are elements in Iran that worry a large-scale attack could drag Iran into a war with Israel and maybe even the United States.”

“US says Iran attack may come soon and with no warning, but no definitive info,” Times of Israel, 8-15-24.

Claiming that God is on your side, or that God talks to you, is quite questionable.  And dangerous.  “Khamenei warns of ‘divine wrath’ if Iran backs down amid Israel tensions,” Iran International, 8-14-24.

“Internal strife: Iran’s delayed retaliation to Israel sparks rift within terror proxies – report,” JPost, 8-14-24.  It is just too bad these actors don’t get along—“Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, various Iraqi factions, and the Houthis.”  But note that (they are unnamed) “[d]uring the meeting, the Hamas representative demanded the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in retaliation for Haniyeh’s death, warning that Hamas would not support the Iranian proposal otherwise, al Jarida noted.”  But Note to Hamas:  The Israeli PM heads up a state; Haniyeh and Sinwar head up terror organizations.

“Iran’s mixed signals leave some allies in the dark and set region on edge,” CNN, 8-14-24.  The Leader appears to be worried about another 99% loss such as what happened in April when Iran sent 300 weapons at Israel.

“Google confirms Iran-linked hackers targeted Trump, Biden campaigns,” Politico, 8-14-24.  “The Google Threat Analysis Group wrote Wednesday that APT42, a hacking group associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, had targeted “the personal email accounts of roughly a dozen individuals affiliated with President Biden and with former President Trump.” These included current and former U.S. government officials and people working on the campaign.”

“Projectiles Fired by Iran-Aligned Militia Miss U.S. Base Near Syrian Gas Field,” OilPrice.com, 8-14-24.

I tend to look at articles like this (I post articles on both sides of the Iran debate) and ask the authors why their view of Iran and other bad actors represents about one out of 50.  That is the ratio I’d guess among IR observers.  Certainly those who follow realism.  And seemingly reflected in an overwhelming way by the evidence the international and domestic media report on of agreements, military movements, trade, support at international organizations, drug trade, proliferation (nuclear and conventional arms), the list is long of cooperation and bad acts, from Asia and the China Sea to the Middle East to Eastern Europe to South America to Central America.  Am I missing something?  “The ‘Axis of Evil’ Is Overhyped,” FP, 8-14-24.

“Google says Iranian efforts to hack US presidential campaigns are ongoing and wide-ranging,” CNN, 8-14-24.

Triggers.  “Iran advancing research on nuclear bomb detonators, nuke expert tells ‘Post’,” JPost, 8-14-24.

Finally.  “The U.S. Is Working to Curb Iran’s Oil Exports,” OilPrice.com, 8-14-24.

“US eyes Iranian oil exports as threat of Israel attack grows,” Politico, 8-13-24.

“Iran dismisses European restraint calls as contradicting international law,” Al Jazeera, 8-13-24.

“A ship in the Red Sea is attacked 3 times by suspected Yemeni rebels, including with a drone boat,” AP, 8-13-24.

“Iran ‘will bear responsibility’ for attacking Israel, warn UK, France and Germany,” Politico, 8-12-24.

Dem. candidate and VP Harris needs to be careful and wait for the facts to come out in the Iran-Hamas War v. Israel, which is good way to oppose Iran.  “Israel-Iran latest: Kamala Harris condemns Israeli strike on Gaza school saying ‘far too many civilians have died – yet again’,” AOL, 8-11-24.  I24 is reporting no women or children present in the targeted attack, which only was on the second story of the school.  “Amid global criticism, Israel names 19 it says it killed in terror HQ at Gaza school,” Times of Israel, 8-10-24.

Amazing.  And Instructive.  This is the first (?) time that Israel has forced Iran and the Supreme Leader to back off, even if for a short while.  Power against Terrorism, and Advanced Technology, and Other Factors have resulted thus.  “Report: Khamenei agrees to postpone attack on Israel; US opens hotline,” I24, 8-11-24.  Also, the article claims “New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian convinced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to delay his attack on Israel until his new government is sworn in, according to a Kuwaiti report.”

Iran has spoken.  “Hamas says it won’t take part in Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal talks,” Axios, 8-11-24.

“IDF, Shin Bet confirm 31 terrorists killed in Taba’een school in Gaza,” I24, 8-11-24.  Waiting for a Correction Statement from VP Harrison.

“Israeli intelligence believes Iran has decided to attack Israel, says Axios,” Reuters, 8-11-24.

“Iran on verge of launching direct attack on Israel: Reports,” Iran International, 8-11-24.

“Iran’s president taps nuclear negotiator as foreign minister, woman for housing post,” Reuters, Times of Israel, 8-11-24.

The pressure put on other countries by Iran is evident in this story.  Jordan has to have two narratives.  “Report: Jordan to allow Israel to use its airspace against Iran,” I24, 8-10-24.

“Order by Iran’s Khamenei to ‘punish’ Israel will be implemented: IRGC,” Al Jazeera, 8-9-24.

“Iranian hackers target U.S. presidential campaign official, Microsoft says,” Axios, 8-9-24.

“Iran Is Better Positioned to Launch Nuclear-Weapons Program, New U.S. Intelligence Assessment Says,” WSJ, 8-9-24.

“Iran’s new president battles revolutionary guard to stop all-out war with Israel,” Yahoo, 8-9-24.

“Iran set to carry out leader’s order to ‘harshly punish’ Israel, Guards deputy chief says,” Reuters, 8-9-24.

“Head of Syrian army secretly visited Iran, acting without Assad’s knowledge – report,” I24, 8-8-24.  I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a story like this.  “Syria’s Chief of Staff, General Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim, visited Iran without informing President Bashar Al-Assad, according to the Saudi channel Al-Hadath on Thursday.  The report said that “the Syrian Chief of Staff made decisions that established a connection with Iran.” This allegedly has led to Israeli attacks on Syrian, non-Iranian sites. Sources revealed that “it is believed that the Syrian Chief of Staff agreed to transfer weapons from the army to Hezbollah.” The sources added that Ibrahim “approved operations against Israel from Syria without the knowledge of the Syrian president.” According to sources, he also “agreed to launch drones from Syria towards Israel in mid-July,” indicating that Ibrahim “secretly visited Tehran to solidify the relationship with Iran.” The sources mentioned that “Ibrahim poses a threat to the stability of Syria and harms its vital infrastructure.”  Ibrahim may not be long for this world.

“Iran keeps region guessing as it mulls revenge attack,” BBC, 8-8-24.

“Why Iran Will Escalate,” CSIS, 8-8-24.  Keep an important point in mind, that not many openly make.  Israel took action in response to Hezbollah and Hamas bad actions/actors.  Action and Reaction in physics terms.  So, if Iran responds and attacks Israel, that technically is a new round of (serious) Tit for Tat.  Country leaders and the Press need to recognize this and repeatedly call out Iran for continuing (and restarting) the conflict.

“Iran mulls scrapping plans to take revenge on Israel in exchange for a Gaza ceasefire,” CNN, 8-8-24.  Feint.  The centrifuges spin.

“Iran’s frightening new playbook for war,” Economist, 8-8-24.

“Ahead of imminent attack on Israel, Iran blocks its airspace for ‘military activities’,” Firstpost, 8-8-24.

“Israel said to believe Hezbollah will respond before Iran to deaths of terror chiefs,” Times of Israel, 8-8-24.

“As Biden-Harris Admin Calls for De-Escalation, Iran Threatens To ‘Wipe Out’ American Military Bases Across the Middle East,” Free Beacon, 8-8-24.

Friction behind the scenes.  The Leader is not supposed to have a president lobbying him against force.  “Iranian president pleads with Khamenei to prevent war with Israel – report,” I24, 8-7-24.  The report is not generated by Israeli news sources but by the Saudi Arabian-affiliated Iran International.  Also, remember the real issue—will Iran begin to turn away from violence and toward being a normal country?  They need to start somewhere.

“US offers $10 million for info on Iranian leaders behind CyberAv3ngers water utility attacks,” The Record, 8-7-24.  Protected by the IRGC.

“Putin Urges Iran to Exercise Restraint,” FDD, 8-7-24.

In the word(s) of Pres. Joe Biden, “Don’t.”  “Belarus’ Air Force chief meets Iranian commanders to discuss defense ties,” IRNA, 8-7-24.

“Iran executes 29 day after protester’s hanging: rights group,” VOA, 8-7-24.

Hiring a hitman is a favorite tactic of Quds.  Plotting revenge for the elimination of General Soleimani is also a favorite activity of Quds.  “US charges Iran-linked Pakistani over political assassination plot,” Al Jazeera, 8-7-24.  Remember that in these cases, the past several years have shown us, the U.S. collects evidences and announces charges, then Iran denies.  That is always the pattern.  Iran never addresses the allegations.

The longer this goes on and on (three weeks?), Iran looks weaker.  And if they do attack in a large way, that is what it is, the opening salvo (not in responding to terror) but in a war.  “Iran might be second-guessing its Israel attack,” Politico, 8-7-24.

“Iran could rethink Israel attack amid strong diplomatic pressure from US – report,” Times of Israel, 8-7-24.  “Show of US military strength could play role in Tehran lessening its threat, report claims, alongside Iran’s understanding that bomb that killed Hamas leader detonated remotely.”

“Hamas: Yahya Sinwar will replace Ismail Haniyeh as political head,” JPost, 8-6-24.  The great influence and direction of Iran remains on Hamas.