“NYT: Satellite imagery shows Iran repaired ballistic missiles sites hit in 12-day war,” i24, 2-6-26.  But the NYT’s satellite analysis is 7 months after the June strikes by the U.S.  Instead, almost daily intelligence has been watching, and not reported.  But the NYT does say “Experts say that despite some visible work, Iran’s three main enrichment facilities — Isfahan, Natanz and Fordo — appear inoperative.”  See “Iran Is at Work on Missile and Nuclear Sites, Satellite Images Show,” NYT, 2-6-26.

“Iranian spokesperson says U.S.-Iran talks over ‘for now’ | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 2-26.

Calculated, rational, but still wrong.  See “Why Tehran sees war as a survival strategy,” Iran International, 2-6-26.  In part—“Iran’s leadership is edging toward a war scenario not because diplomacy is necessarily collapsing, but because confrontation is increasingly seen as the least damaging option for a ruling system under intense internal and external pressure. While Iran’s foreign minister is right now visiting Oman for bilateral talks with the United States, in Tehran’s calculus, negotiations now promise steady erosion. War, by contrast, offers a chance – however risky – to reset the balance. This marks a shift from the Islamic Republic’s long-standing view of war as an existential threat. Today, senior decision-makers appear to believe that controlled confrontation may preserve the system in ways diplomacy no longer can. That belief explains why war is no longer unthinkable in Tehran, but increasingly framed as a viable instrument of rule. At the core of this shift lies a stark assessment: the negotiating table has become a losing field. This is not because an agreement with Washington is impossible. It is because the framework imposed by the United States and its allies has turned diplomacy into a process of cumulative concession. When nuclear limits, missile restrictions, regional influence, and even domestic conduct are treated as interlinked files, Iranian leaders see talks not as pressure relief, but as strategic retreat without credible guarantees of survival. From Tehran’s perspective, diplomacy no longer buys time. It entrenches vulnerability. In that context, confrontation begins to look less like recklessness and more like a way out of a narrowing corridor.”

“Iran Refuses to End Nuclear Enrichment in Talks With U.S.,” WSJ, 2-6-26.

“Trump calls U.S. and Iran talks in Oman ‘very good’ and says there will be another meeting,” NBC, 2-6-26.

The question is will the U.S. allow this to happen.  “Iran Returns to Its Negotiating Stall,” WSJ, 2-6-26.

“Rubio confirms Iran demanded venue change for nuclear talks,” Fox, 2-4-26.

“Iran and the U.S. will hold nuclear talks Friday in Oman as tensions remain high,” NBC, 2-4-26

“After crushing protests, Iran’s supreme leader now tries to avert a US attack,” 2-4-26.

“Iran signals major nuclear concessions in bid to ease tensions,” i24, 2-3-26.

“Iranian gunboats try to stop a US-flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 2-3-26.  Also of note, this story reports what we have observed seemingly forever, the Iranians say one thing day, another the next, then a third thing.  Delay, delay, delay to stay in power.  “Iranian officials reportedly threatened to withdraw from talks with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, scheduled for Friday in Turkey, according to people familiar with the matter.”

“Iran’s President Backs ‘Fair’ Talks With U.S. as Confrontation Looms,” NYT, 2-3-26.  Thank you U.S. Navy.  “A Navy fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone on Tuesday after it aggressively approached a U.S. aircraft carrier that was transiting the Arabian Sea, about 500 miles from Iran’s southern coast.”

“U.S.-Iran nuclear talks planned for Friday amid military buildup,” Axios, 2-2-26.  “White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul together with representatives of several Arab and Muslim countries to discuss a possible nuclear deal, according to two sources with knowledge and a U.S. official.”

Well put.  Regime change is the order of the day.  “The ‘Deal’ in Iran Is Regime Change,” WSJ, 2-2-26.  Does the Leader want to stay, probably for most of the rest of his life, underground?  He can’t go out in public, they will stone him.  (How ironic).

“After US warning, Iran says no plans to carry out live-fire exercises in Strait of Hormuz,” Times of Israel, 2-1-26.  This is the result of standing firm on the cargo ship and the approaching drone.

“Iranian-US nuclear negotiations expected to take place on Friday in Istanbul | LIVE BLOG,” Times of Israel, 2-1-26.

“Iran’s Gen Z Helped Propel the Protests. They Paid With Their Lives,” WSJ, 2-1-26.  I hope they remain engaged with Iran’s future.

“Iran’s Khamenei appears on video amid rising US Tensions,” Roya News, 1-31-26.  Iranian news “broadcast images and video of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Saturday, marking his first public appearance in several weeks. The visit to the mausoleum of his predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, coincided with the 47th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.”  A proof of life video!  In contrast with the proof of life videos shot by Hamas of Israeli hostages inside tunnels in Gaza.  Also attending were President Pezeshkian and Hasan Khomeni, grandson of late leader (the first leader) Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.  See “Khamenei makes first public appearance in weeks as Iran makes new threats against US, Israel,” Times of Israel, 1-31-26.

MBS is 40 years old.  AK is 86.  That’s one of analyzing this report.  “Report: Saudi defense minister tells US not striking Iran would ’embolden’ regime,” Times of Israel, 1-31-26.

This is not military action by the U.S. or Israel based on picture, fire chief reports, who was killed and injured.  Just a gas leak.  “Blast rips through building in Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, state media says,” CNN, 1-31-26.

“History of Iran Part 2 – American Minute with Bill Federer,” 1-31-26.

“US, Iran signal talks to avert military conflict amid tensions in the Gulf,” Al Jazeera, 1-31-26.  This whole episode may turn out to be peace through strength, we’ll see.  But I did see this quote.  “Any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near US forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization,” CENTCOM said in a statement.”

“Iran Says It Won’t Negotiate With the U.S. While Under Threat,” NYT, 1-30-26.  Again, the Regime through its FM under orders from the Leader flips and says something new.  And keep in mind that how Iran defines “threats” is really, at its core, that the U.S. exists, not whether the Lincoln strike force is now present or that the U.S. has bases in the region (which can’t be picked up and quickly moved away obviously).  Here’s the key–that the question is not what will the U.S. do, or anyone else.  The question solely is what will Iran do?  That has always been the focus of this blog and rightfully so.  The reason we watch Iran is because the Regime’s for 45 years has brought our eye to them.  They are responsible for their actions, not Iraq or Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan.  The U.S. didn’t make Iran do anything, nor Turkey or Israel or the UK or the UAE.  You get the picture.  For weeks the question is centering for some persons, will Trump or Israel attack?  But that is the wrong question, and all those other questions are really predicated on will the Islamic Republic decide to act as a normal country?

“Intense Saudi Moves in Washington to De-escalate Tensions with Iran,” Alhurra, 1-30-26.  “Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman held a series of meetings on Friday in the U.S. capital with senior officials in the Trump administration. His meetings included Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.”

“U.S. Approves $15.7 Billion in Potential Arms Sales for Saudi Arabia, Israel,” WSJ, 1-30-26.  “The arms deals would need congressional approval and could take years for the weapons to be delivered.”  See also “US approves $6.7 billion arms sale to Israel, $9 billion Patriot missile deal for Saudis,” Times of Israel, 1-31-26.  “The Saudi sale is for 730 Patriot missiles and related equipment that “will support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by improving the security of a Major non-NATO Ally that is a force for political stability and economic progress in the Gulf Region.”

“Iran History – Part 1 – American Minute with Bill Federer,” 1-30-26.

It should not be a surprise to anyone that the Ayatollah and the Regime have not made concessions nor real negotiations here at the last minute.  Historically, he always digs in his wheels, but not just with the U.S. or his regional neighbors or the UN or you name the entity, with the Iranian people.  There is no brook, no dissension allowed.  This is so much of his downfall and that of the Regime.  Perhaps it will become a military state.  A thugocracy is a real possibility.  Theocracy?  No, the people have had enough of a Shia Revolution.  Will the country break into two or three parts?  See “Trump weighs major new strike on Iran as nuclear discussions show no progress,” CNN, 1-29-26.

Finally.  Took a lot of death in Iran to get this over the finish line in Brussels.  “EU designates Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terror group,” DW, 1-29-26.  Last thing to mention on this—the persons blacklisted by the EU for their actions during Jan. 8-9 had better watch their back, the U.S. knows who they are also.  The story listed some of them:  “Among those on the list of 15 individuals sanctioned on Thursday were Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, Iran’s prosecutor general Mohammad Movahedi-Azad, General Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi, who is head of Iran’s joint command headquarters, and Iman Afshari, a presiding judge.”  See also “EU adds Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to terrorist list,” BBC, 1-29-26.

“Israel, Saudi officials visit Washington to discuss possible U.S. strikes on Iran, sources say,” Reuters, 1-29-26.  This story could be accurate, or it could be a ruse.

“What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios,” BBC, 1-29-26.  Reasonable list.  But it is complex situation, with so many ways this could end up, even over the short-term.  Just compare how the U.S. is handling Venezuela, and almost the “model” situation there.

“How a month of protests and threats brought Trump to Iran strike decision point,” Iran International, 1-29-26.  “Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder met senior officials at the Pentagon, the CIA and the White House on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to US officials and other sources familiar with the discussions, as Israel shared intelligence it says could inform potential targets inside Iran, Axios reported on Thursday. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman was expected in Washington on Thursday and Friday for meetings at the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House, including with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US special envoy Steve Witkoff, sources said.”

A comprehensive yet basic location list of U.S. assets.  The Iranians and Russians and others know this, also.  But this article does make you think, though, why doesn’t the NYT run the same information about Iran?  Its motto is “All the news that’s fit to print.”  See “Where the U.S. Is Building Up Military Force Near Iran,” NYT, 1-29-26.

Maybe it should.  Time is drawing short.  The U.S. has communicated its position.  Will the Regime tell us its response?  “Iran says it did not request negotiations with the U.S.” Reuters, 1-28-26.

I think the BBC knows the answer to its question.  “Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?,” BBC, 1-28-26.  The real question is what happens next.

Perhaps you know of the Long War Journal.  Really good.  And, correct, it is a long view that we have to take to operate properly.  “Iran and its proxies threaten retaliation against US and Israel amid US military buildup,” FDD Long War Journal, 1-28-26.

Texas Sen. John Cornyn asked Sec. Rubio what step the Supreme Leader may take next.  “Cornyn Questions Sec. Rubio on Potential Fall of Iranian Regime, Middle East Posture,” YouTube, 1-28-26.  The thousands of UAVs and short-range ballistic missiles are a real threat to the 8-9 U.S. bases in the Middle East.

“Iran in collective shock after bloody crackdown,” LeMonde, 1-28-26.

This really is a good opportunity for the reporter or news outlet to challenge the statements being made by the Regime operatives.  If they truly have complete control, how does this IRGC commander explain the two U.S. warships sitting in the strait?  If these outlets won’t ask, then they shouldn’t run with these stories, or should include in the stories the reality of the situation.  See “Iran says it has ‘complete control’ of Strait of Hormuz as threat of war with US looms,” MEMO, 1-28-26.

“How Iran Crushed an Uprising,” NYT, 1-27-26.  It would be good if the NYT paired up with Iran International, which is leading the stories.  But we will give credit to the Times for providing its large readership with “We learned from Iranian officials familiar with security matters that on Jan. 9, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered the Supreme National Security Council to crush the protests by any means necessary. … Within four days, the protests had largely been crushed. … But we can say that the government responded to these protests with more lethal force than we’ve seen in many decades. That tells us something about how it views the stakes of the protests, which called for the downfall of Khamenei and his regime. … The Islamic Republic is at its most fragile geopolitical moment in years, and perhaps ever.”

“US renews nuclear and missile demands on Iran as ‘armada’ arrives,” Iran International, 1-27-26.  Here’s the public list of demands.  “Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, must stop its nuclear escalations, its ballistic missile program, and its support for its terrorist proxies,” the spokesperson said. … Separately, Axios quoted US officials as saying any potential agreement with Tehran would require the removal of all highly enriched uranium from Iran, strict limits on the country’s long-range missile stockpile, a change in Iran’s policy of supporting regional proxy groups, and a ban on independent uranium enrichment inside the country.”  I would think the U.S. is also requiring the Supreme Leader to leave, and would allow him to go to Moscow.   It is surprising that some are asking will Pres. Trump do something in response to the unparalleled slaughter  because he does have a record of doing what he says, but also because Iranians are begging for help.  And it is in the national interest to see those punished for the largest two-day protest killings in human history, and, I would add, because it is in the U.S. national interest to end the Regime which has so vexed the Middle East and the U.S. since 1979.  Where is the world?  Where is the Security Council?  For those who ask (or even criticize) if the U.S. should do something, are they willing to do something, to just observe?  Scared to open a wider war in the Middle East?  The other strikes by the U.S., against Qasem Soleimani or the June 2025 nuclear program hits, did not start a war.  Why do people say something needs to be done but aren’t willing to do it themselves?  Where are the other countries?

“Activists say Iran’s crackdown has killed at least 6,159 people, as the country’s currency plunges,” AP, 1-27-26.  The rial fell to a record low of 1.5 million to $1 U.S. dollar.

Thank you Masih Alinejad.  See “The Cost of Inaction Over Iran: ‘We Are Left With Graveyards’,” NYT, 1-27-26.  “I’m in constant contact with Iranians inside the country, and what I hear from activists who witnessed killings, and mothers who are now mourning their children, is that we need the world to act. Iranian officials sent assassins to kill me on U.S. soil three times. I was saved only by the vigilance of U.S. law enforcement agencies. My dream, and the dream of millions of my compatriots, is to see Mr. Khamenei held accountable, and be tried for the crime of killing so many Iranians. … “I’m no military planner, but it’s clear that attacks on the infrastructure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Basij militia that it controls would damage the Islamic Republic’s protest-crushing machinery. The goal should be to disrupt the regime’s ability to shoot, jail and terrorize. The strike could also encourage fence-sitters inside the security services to stand down, if not actually join the protesters. … Europeans should designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization, something they have yet to do despite a mountain of evidence about the violence it has perpetrated. While they are at it, they should expel Iranian diplomats and close the country’s consulates.”

“Iran’s repeated use of 3,117 fuels doubts about official statistics,” Iran International, 1-27-26.

“Iran’s President Pezeshkian warns of regional instability amid US threats,” Al Jazeera, 1-27-26.