This is a decision for world order and against the chaos that the Iranian Regime pushes, just as they pushed South Africa and tried to push world opinion against justice and peace.  “World Court Rejects Demand for Gaza Cease-Fire,” WSJ, 1-26-24.  “The Gaza order stands in contrast to another Genocide Convention case, when in March 2022 the ICJ instructed Russia to cease its military operations in Ukrainian territory. In that order, approved by a similar 13-2 vote, the world court gave no credit to Russia’s claims to have invaded Ukraine in self-defense. In both the Gaza and Ukraine cases, the ICJ’s overwhelming votes appeared to reflect much of world opinion: distress about the human cost of Israel’s Gaza operation while recognizing Israel’s right of self-defense, but outright rejection of Moscow’s pretexts for invading Ukraine. Judges voting for the court’s full order came from countries that have supported Israel, including Australia, France and Germany, as well as from Arab and developing nations aligned with Palestinian cause, such as Brazil, Lebanon, Morocco and Somalia. Judges from America’s rival superpowers, China and Russia, joined the majority, as did the temporary judge South Africa appointed to sit on the case. … Only the Ugandan judge, Julia Sebutinde, dissented across the board. … The U.S. and other Western nations have dismissed the genocide charge against Israel as unwarranted. Speaking earlier this month in Tel Aviv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the accusation “particularly galling, given that those who are attacking Israel—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, as well as their supporter, Iran—continue to openly call for the annihilation of Israel and the mass murder of Jews.”

These two stories reveal the differences between a normal country and one not.  And they also demonstrate the underlying principles of the U.S., that even with an enemy a message was relayed by the USG to value life.  Of course, one can take the position that it is in the interests of the U.S. to be seen in a good light.  But I would argue that we didn’t do this to look like a good guy, but that if it helps our relationship with the Iran government than fine, but the Biden Administration did this because at its base this was the right thing to do.  (and we warn multiple other countries of things often BTW).  See “U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack,” WSJ, 1-26-24.  So, who do we believe, the U.S. or Iran?  When I’ve asked this question over the years, one country has over time on any difference come out as conveying accurate information.  “Iran denies receiving warning from US ahead of ISIS bombings which killed 95 people,” Times of Israel, 1-26-24.  Despite the olive branch warning, you’ll recall that even the IRGC head Salami and other high-ranking Iranian officials claimed that Great Satan U.S. and Little Satan Israel were responsible for the ISIS attacks.

“Iran officials told the Chinese that they weren’t in control of the group and that turmoil in the region would end if Israel agreed to a cease-fire, the Iranians said.”  Think about it—Iran says they can’t control the groups, but Iran knows how they act.  Hmm.  See, “Houthis Attack U.S. Warship as China Urges Iran to Rein In Rebels,” WSJ, 1-26-24.

“France, Germany, UK condemn Iran’s launch of Soraya satellite,” Reuters, JPost, 1-26-24.

“Iran Update, January 26, 2024,” Critical Threats, 1-26-24.

“Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah: The Danger From Iran And How To Stop It,” Forbes, 1-26-24.

“After UAV attack, IDF hits Hezbollah airstrip said built by Iran to launch drones,” Times of Israel, 1-25-24.

“Exclusive-China Presses Iran to Rein in Houthi Attacks in Red Sea, Sources Say,” Reuters, USNews, 1-25-24.

“Iran Ignored US Warnings Of Impending ISIS Attack,” Iran International, 1-25-24.  “The US passed the warning to Iran more than one week before the Kerman attack” … “of the warning that Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, known as ISIS-K, planned to commit the attacks at the commemoration ceremony of slain Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani.”

“Iran: Rouhani’s ban from key assembly unveils power struggle among political elite,” MEE, 1-25-24.

“Iran, Niger sign 2 cooperation agreements,” Xinhua, 1-25-24.

“Iranian Drones Become Latest Proxy Tool in Sudan’s Civil War,” Bloomberg, 1-24-24.  This follows the recent story about Iran recognizing South Sudan.  Iran isn’t acting with clean hands.

This is a telling set of stories about lack of accountability and who gets the power in Iran.  There aren’t very many “moderates” in at the highest levels of  Iranian authority.  But there are types of political Shia conservatives.  Rouhani is not seen as a hardliner because he was willing to (secretly at first) negotiate with the U.S.  But here he is being kept out of future discussions and who can run for the legislature.  “Iran bans ex-president Rouhani from running for elite assembly,” Reuters, January 24, 2024.  “Iran’s hardline Guardian Council has banned former pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani from standing again in an election in March for the Assembly of Experts, which appoints and can dismiss the supreme leader, state media said on Wednesday.  The 88-member assembly, founded in 1982, supervises the most powerful authority but has rarely intervened directly in policy-making.  Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is 84, so the new assembly is expected to play a significant role in choosing his successor since its members are only elected every eight years.  Close to moderates, Rouhani was elected president in a landslide in 2013 and 2017 on a promise to reduce Iran’s diplomatic isolation.  But the mid-ranking cleric angered political hardliners who opposed any rapprochement with the U.S. “Great Satan” after reaching a 2015 nuclear pact with six major powers.  The deal unravelled in 2018 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the agreement and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy. Efforts to revive the pact have failed.  “There was no reason given for the Guardian Council’s decision,” a source close to Rouhani told Reuters, adding that “no decision has been made yet for an appeal” as Rouhani has three days to object.  “Rouhani has been a member of the assembly since 1999 for three terms … It will be interesting to see what the reason for his disqualification was.”  The 12-member Guardian Council, which oversees elections and legislation, disqualified 80% of candidates running for the assembly in its last election in 2016.  Moderate politicians have accused the Guardian Council of disqualifying rivals, and said that excluding candidates from the race undermines the vote’s legitimacy.  A low turnout for the upcoming elections is expected, with Rouhani saying last week that the majority of people do not want to vote and that this will favour the ruling minority which relies on low turnout.  With Rouhani’s disqualification, the Guardian Council had made it clear that hardliners intended to keep moderates away from the assembly, a pro-reform insider said.  The Guardian Council has also disqualified hundreds of hopefuls running for the parliamentary election also to be held on March 1. State media reported that only 30 mid-ranking moderate candidates have been qualified to stand for the 290-seat parliament. Around 12,000 hopefuls will run for parliament, state media reported.”

“Iranian leader heads to Turkey to talk Gaza war with Erdogan,” Times of Israel, 1-24-24.  The Regime wants Turkey to cut trade and relations with Israel.

“Deciphering the shadow war between Iran, Israel,” Hindustan Times, 1-24-24.

“US Navy shoots down missiles targeting American cargo ship,” USA Today, 1-24-24.

“U.S. Issues $15 Million Bounty Targeting Alleged Iran Drone Middleman,” WSJ, 1-24-24.

“Turkey, Iran agree on need for regional stability amid Israel’s war on Gaza,” Al Jazeera, 1-24-24.

“Iran drones become latest proxy tool in Sudan’s civil war,” Al Arabiya, 1-24-24.

“Iran’s State TV Aims For Hefty Election Campaign Profits,” Iran International, 1-24-24.

“Kurdish Political Prisoner Executed In Iran,” Iran International, 1-23-24.

“The security forces killed hundreds of protesters and arrested thousands. Many of the detained were accused of “moharebeh,” a broad term that means waging a war on God and is typically punishable with death.”  See “Iran Executes 23-Year-Old Man in Further Crackdown on Protests,” NYT, 1-23-24.

““US stages retaliatory airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, officials say,” ABC, 1-23-24.

“The rise of Iran as a Middle East superpower,” The Straits Times, 1-23-24.

“Mohammad Ghobadlou: Iran executes protester with mental health condition,” BBC, 1-23-24.

“Since November, the Iranian-backed Houthis have launched at least 34 attacks on shipping through the waterways leading up to Egypt’s Suez Canal.”  See “US Navy’s Mideast chief says Iran ‘very directly involved’ in Houthi attacks on ships,” 1-23-24.

It is IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah who are aiding the Houthis in Yemen.  But for …  “Iranian Military Technology and Advisers Aid Houthi Attacks in Red Sea, Officials Say,” WSJ, 1-24-24.  “Among other high-end gear, Iran has provided the Houthis with drone jammers and parts for long-range rockets and missiles. The Iranians and their Lebanese Hezbollah allies have sent advisers to Yemen to help the Houthis plan and launch their attacks. … Iran’s assistance to the Houthis is handled by some of the most elite officers in the Revolutionary Guard. The head of Tehran’s operations in the country is Abdolreza Shahlai, who once oversaw attacks on U.S. soldiers in Iraq, the Western security advisers and officials said. He is now wanted by Washington with a $15 million bounty. The Western security advisers and officials said that the transfer of ballistic-missile technologies and training is overseen by Unit 340, which trained Houthi personnel in Iran and Lebanon and is led by Hamid Fazeli, a former head of Iran’s space-rocket program.”

This story is not about China.  It’s about Iran’s refusal to give a red light to the Houthis.  “US asks China to urge Iran to curb Red Sea attacks by Houthis -FT,” Reuters, 1-23-24.

“Iran: 2 Detainees Executed, 11 Await Imminent Execution,” Human Rights Watch, 1-23-24.

Controlling access to the ballot, along with who is on the ballot, is a mark of dictatorship.  “Iran’s Regime Effectively Ends Election Weeks Before Voting Day,” Iran International, 1-23-24.  “Iran’s ruling hardliners have crushed the election hopes of reformists and moderates in the parliamentary vote on March 1 by disqualifying nearly all their candidates.”

Iran has allowed women and children to be targeted, in multiple places and times.  And the Navy doesn’t fabricate Iran smuggling.  “Iran’s top diplomat says risk of war in the Middle East ‘has gone up,’ blames US,” ABC, 1-23-24.  FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian says, “We consider Hamas a Palestinian liberation group that is standing against occupation,” Amir-Abdollahian said. “Of course, we never approved the killing of women and children, civilians anywhere in the world. We never support it.” He also says regarding the evidence provided over the years and currently from the Pentagon of Iran weapons smuggling is a fabrication.  “Mostly, this is a TV show,” he asserted, even though the United Nations and other foreign governments have documented similar arms transfers from Iran.”  The families of the SEALs know differently.

Russia gets extraction in the Caspian plus access to some airfields and ports.  Iran gets increased military cooperation and trade, plus a 20 year agreement compatible with its 25 year agreement with China.  See “Russia And Iran Finalize 20-Year Deal That Will Change The Middle East Forever,” OilPrice.com, 1-22-24.

Mismanagement and Corruption.  “A thirsty reality: Iran’s dire water situation,” Atlantic Council, 1-22-24.

“Iran World’s Top Executioner With Three Hanged Daily,” Iran International, 1-22-24.

“In a complete collapse of judicial process, Ghobadlou’s defense was informed of the decision to hang him with half a day’s notice. Attorney Amir Raisian published the notice on his X account, saying that the execution would amount to “murder”, since the initial verdict had been overturned and his client had a right to appeal.”  See “Iran Hangs Protester Whose Sentence Was Overturned,” Iran International, 1-22-24.

“US Announces New Sanctions Against Iran-Backed Entities Including Hamas,” Algemeiner, 1-22-24.

BTW, the spy ship helping the Houthis has moved out of the Red Sea to avoid being attacked by the U.S. and the UK.  “Iranian Spy Ship Helps Houthis Direct Attacks on Red Sea Vessels,” WSJ, 1-22-24.

“The ship’s 14 crew members were detained.”  For intelligence.  “Military ends rescue search for Navy SEALs lost in raid on ship with Iranian weapons,” Politico, AP, 1-21-24.

“Houthis seek more Iranian weapons to step up Red Sea attacks, intel shows,” Politico, 1-21-24.  “The shipments are a sign that Tehran is playing a direct role in fueling the crisis in the Red Sea …. “In addition to escalating against America in Iraq and Syria via militia groups to put pressure on America to end Israel’s war against Hamas, Iran also has a more localized logic at play,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “It is trying to create a cycle of violence that leads to the eviction of U.S. forces from the region, beginning with Iraq.” … As of Friday, Iran-backed militia groups had attacked U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria 140 times since October, according to the Pentagon. The attacks have typically been small-scale, using a combination of drones and rockets and causing little damage to infrastructure. But on Saturday, militants in Western Iraq launched a major attack on al Asad airbase, injuring a number of U.S. personnel. … Still, officials and experts maintain that Iran does not seek open war with the West. It’s significant that neither Iran nor Lebanese Hezbollah, a more sophisticated militant group than the Houthis also funded by Tehran, has gotten more involved in the fight in Gaza, said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the head of all U.S. forces in the Middle East until 2022. Tehran’s three objectives are: preservation of the regime, destruction of Israel, and ending the U.S. presence in the region, McKenzie said. “Based on that, they do not seek large-scale war with the United States because they know the regime would be threatened by it,” he said.”

“Iranian Soldier Kills 5 Comrades Where IS Attack Killed Dozens,” AP, VOA, 1-21-24.

“Iran appears to spread misinformation to justify attacks on Erbil,” Rudaw, 1-21-24.

Red Alert.  “Iran has almost enough uranium for nuclear bomb, US expert reports,” Jerusalem Post, 1-21-24.

“Iran launches satellite that is part of a Western-criticized program as regional tensions spike,” AP, 1-20-24.  “The United States has previously said Iran’s satellite launches defy a U.N. Security Council resolution and called on Tehran to undertake no activity involving ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. U.N. sanctions related to Iran’s ballistic missile program expired last October. … The U.S. intelligence community’s 2023 worldwide threat assessment said the development of satellite launch vehicles “shortens the timeline” for Iran to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology. Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly has warned. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes.”

“Iranian and Hezbollah commanders help direct Houthi attacks in Yemen,” Reuters, 1-20-24.

“U.S. personnel wounded in missile attack on Iraq airbase by Iranian-backed rebels,” CBS, 1-20-24.

We scratch our heads at what the UN allows.  “Iran to take Presidency of UN Conference on Disarmament,” Jerusalem Post, 1-20-24.

“Iran launches ‘Sorayya’ satellite into 750 km orbit, its highest yet,” India Today, 1-20-24

This relationship has been scary in the past.  “Sudan, Iran to reopen embassies following diplomatic rapprochement,” Sudan Tribune, 1-20-24.

“Iran’s overarching strategy in attacking targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan,” NPR, 1-19-24.

“Pakistan, Iran agree to ‘de-escalate’ tensions after tit-for-tat attacks,” Al Jazeera, 1-19-24.

And the drive for radical Shia revolution beyond its borders, part of its constitution.  “Why Iran Is the Common Link in Conflicts From Gaza to Pakistan,” NYT, 1-18-24.

This Iran proxy is back on the list.  Should never have been removed.  “U.S. lists Houthis as terrorists, rebels hit another US-operated ship,” Reuters, 1-18-24.

“Why are Iran and Pakistan striking each other’s territory – and what does it have to do with the Middle East?,” CNN, 1-18-24.

“Does Khamenei Want Iran to Be Bombed?,” Middle East, 1-18-24.

Target practice is rare, and costly.  “The Islamic Republic is now attacking random areas in Syria to show off its missile capabilities while using the cover of “striking terrorists” as a way to test the missiles’ precision. … There is no evidence that Iran struck ISIS. It appears that it attacked an area of Syria controlled by Turkish-backed extremist groups to show off the missile’s capability.”  See “Iran attacked Syria with long-range missile in message to Israel – analysis,” Jerusalem Post, 1-18-24.

Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Israel, U.S., Saudi Arabia, the list is long.  “Iran Says Missile Strikes Show It Will Be ‘Tough and Decisive’ With Foes,” NYT, 1-17-24.

“‘Unprovoked violation’: Iran strikes Syria, Iraq and Pakistan as Middle East tensions spike,” CNBC, 1-17-24.

So, Iran can control its proxies.  “Iran says attacks by its allies won’t stop until Israel’s war in Gaza ends,” CNN, 1-17-24.

“Iran struck Pakistan with missiles and drones as the 2 countries held a joint naval exercise,” Business Insider, 1-17-24.

“Putin and Iran’s Raisi to sign new interstate treaty soon – Russia,” Reuters, 1-17-24.