Month: May 2026

Iran may try to charge “protection fees” for subsea fiber-optic cables crossing Hormuz.  “Iran finds a new weapon beneath Hormuz,” Iran International, 5-19-26.

Do not be confused by this possibility.  He was under house arrest and was opposed by the Supreme Leader.  And the article says he was “consulted.”  Apparently the U.S. and Israel believed Ahmadinejad would cooperate and would be accepted enough by the IRGC.  “Early War Goal Was to Install Hard-Line Former President as Iran’s Leader,” NYT, 5-19-26.

“How Iran Got to the Nuclear Threshold on the Watch of Three U.S. Presidents,” WSJ, 5-19-26.  “Tehran expanded its atomic program after Trump quit the 2015 nuclear deal and then accelerated its work under Biden. … Iran’s leaders have long insisted that they weren’t working on nuclear weapons. Iran isn’t currently enriching uranium and would need to recover fissile material that is buried under tons of rubble if it wanted to sprint to a bomb. But experts, including the U.N.’s atomic agency, have long assessed that Tehran was developing the technological option to develop a nuclear arsenal. With much of Iran’s pre-war leadership dead, Washington is grappling with the possibility that the country’s new leaders may be even less disposed to compromise. Iran still has 10 tons of enriched material, including enough near-weapons-grade material to fuel almost 11 nuclear weapons. It has an unknown number of centrifuges, which are the machines for enriching uranium. Despite Israel’s killing of numerous Iranian nuclear scientists, Iran retains the know-how to start enriching again and probably, experts say, to undertake most key steps for building a nuclear weapon. The U.S.’s biggest concern centers on Iran’s nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium that is enriched to 60% purity. But Iran also has about 440 pounds of 20% enriched uranium. Those materials could be enriched up to 90% weapons-grade material in weeks. Civilian nuclear programs generally rely on low enriched uranium. Iran was the only nonnuclear-weapons country to produce 60% enriched uranium before last June’s attacks.”  Remember, this is a conscious choice of the Regime.  It wants the protection nuclear weapons provide, and the cover for whatever it wants to do on the world stage:  terrorism, Shia Crescent expansion, the spread of the Revolution.

“Iran at a Historic Crossroads: Persian Legacy, Shiʿi Ideology, and Realpolitik,” SPME, 5-18-26.  Great for asking “What exactly constitutes “Iranian interest,” and who defines it?”  In short, “This lecture argues that Iran cannot be understood through the conventional dichotomy of ideology versus pragmatism. Rather, Iranian policy emerges from the interaction of multiple and often competing logics: Iranian-national legacy, Shiʿi political theology, revolutionary institutionalism, security doctrine, economic pressure, geopolitical adaptation and encounter with the West.”  Note that the Regime is the decision maker, and that we don’t blame what happens in Iran on Saudi Arabia, China, the United States, Israel, Iraq, etc.

“Iran at a Historic Crossroads: Persian Legacy, Shiʿi Ideology, and Realpolitik,” SPME, 5-18-26.  Great for asking “What exactly constitutes “Iranian interest,” and who defines it?”  In short, “This lecture argues that Iran cannot be understood through the conventional dichotomy of ideology versus pragmatism. Rather, Iranian policy emerges from the interaction of multiple and often competing logics: Iranian-national legacy, Shiʿi political theology, revolutionary institutionalism, security doctrine, economic pressure, geopolitical adaptation and encounter with the West.”  Note that the Regime is the decision maker, and that we don’t blame what happens in Iran on Saudi Arabia, China, the United States, Israel, Iraq, etc.

“How to Finish the Job in Iran,” WSJ, 5-17-26.

“Iran’s same-day death sentences show its brutality, again,” Dallas Morning News, Ted Poe, 5-15-26.  Congressman Poe has been one of the most vocal opponents of the Regime, reminding persons of its various threats and that it really means the slogan “Death to America” (an integral element of the 1979 government founding).

“Lebanon accused Iran at UN of abusing diplomatic immunity – Fox News,” Iran International, 5-15-26.  “Lebanon filed a sharply worded complaint with the United Nations accusing Iran of abusing diplomatic immunity by refusing to recall its ambassador after Beirut allegedly demanded his expulsion, according to a report by Fox News. The report, citing a letter from late April that recently surfaced, said Lebanese authorities also accused Iran of failing to halt alleged terrorist activities on Lebanese soil.”

In case you wonder whether the Regime is moving to being a normal country, as the blog has repeatedly stated is the standard, or if its leaders want to stay for their own purposes as a revolutionary state, this story gives you more of the current answer.  “Jerusalem Post: Hezbollah planning to occupy Beirut, push out hopes of normalization with Israel,” JPost, 5-13-26.  “Hezbollah has created a systematic action plan to occupy Beirut in order to push out pragmatic elements, Walla learned on Tuesday. At the same time, the defense establishment is recognizing increasing pressure on Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem, who claimed that Israel is preparing for a move to take over large areas in Lebanon.”

The NYT gets the headline wrong.  The news is not “Trump rejects offer”, it is what preceded his decision, that Iran won’t give up its nuclear weapons program (they call it a “nuclear program”).  See “Trump Rejects Latest Iran Offer for Talks, Extending Limbo in Mideast War,” NYT, 5-10-26.

No one knows the answer to the FM’s allegation better than the U.S. negotiators.  If you work out a timeline of these and other negotiations, you will see that historically just as a possible agreement is being worked out, forces in Iran who would not benefit from a move toward peace create an incident.  Over and over again.  The U.S. simply doesn’t have a record of “starting things.”  It would be nice to see a journalist or academic present this.  See “Iran accuses US of ‘reckless military adventure’,” BBC, 5-9-26.  Instead of the BBC investigating the FM’s claims, they simply pass them off to us without evidence.  Point thus won today for Iran.

“Iran warns the US against attacks on its oil tankers and other ships but ceasefire appears to hold,” AP, 5-9-26.

Remember, Iran can’t do everything it does (for years) without superpower assistance or cover.  “State escalates trade row with China over Iran war ahead of Trump-Xi summit,” Politico, 5-9-26.  Of “providing satellite imagery that enables Iran’s military strikes against U.S. forces in the Middle East.”  China did not respond to Politico’s inquiry.

Who would’ve thunk it?  “Senior Iranian official says Mojtaba Khamenei in ‘full health’,” Iran International, 5-8-26.

“The U.S. fires on Iranian tankers trying to evade its blockade amid a Hormuz standoff Updated May 8, 2026,” NPR, 5-8-26.

I’m not sure if funny is the right word for this.  Yes, Iran is in crisis.  Yes, it would take time for them to capitulate.  It is not clear that NBC understands that both can be true.  “Iran could withstand U.S. blockade for months, Western officials and experts say,” NBC, 5-8-26.

“Rubio says U.S. won’t negotiate with Hezbollah but with Lebanese state,” Haharnet, 5-8-26.

And for Kuwait, I think both it and SA to assist with convoys in the Gulf.  Seeing this title, is the first time since the Dessert Storm action against Iraq that SA has given the U.S. access?  Second, notice that “US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are negotiating a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iranian officials. The proposed framework seeks an immediate end to the war and a 30-day window to finalize a comprehensive nuclear and security agreement.”  See “Saudi Arabia reportedly lifts restrictions on US military access to bases and airspace | LIVE BLOG,” I24, 5-7-26.

“Secret document reveals Russia’s plans to aid Iran,” Economist, 5-7-26.

“U.S. and Iran Exchange Fire Amid a Declared Truce,” NYT, 5-7-26.

“Trump says US-Iran ceasefire still in place after exchange of fire in Strait of Hormuz,” BBC, 5-7-26.

It would really help Al Jazeera’s reporting if they included the first fact in this story, that Iranian ships attempted to run the U.S. blockade and wouldn’t stop.  “Iran says it attacked US Navy ships after they targeted Iranian tanker,” Al Jazeera, 5-7-26.

“Iran and U.S. exchange fire in Strait of Hormuz,” Axios, 5-7-26.

“Iran considering US proposal as Trump says war will be ‘over quickly’,” BBC, 5-6-26.

It is these types of actions, such as sinking the 6 speed/attack boats, that makes the blockade effective.  “U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet Disables Iranian-Flagged Tanker,” Aviationist, 5-6-26.

“US, Iran near one-page deal to end war – Axios,” Iran International, 5-6-26.