Month: June 2026

“A significant number of Iran’s leaders are ready to give-up on Khomeinism: Arash Azizi,” CNBC, 6-18-26.  I’ve been thinking about this, whether having a Supreme Leader (and the associated ideology) has run its course.  Is the Regime ready to leave a cleric-led country?  Could Shia beliefs be led by an inflential but not an all-powerful leader?  (i.e., Sistani in Iraq).  Has this run its course?  Iran has grown more feared but not more economically sound.  They people are worse off after 45 years.  This interview also mentions the famous Kissinger quote, asking if Iran is ready to be normal or to remain a revolutionary cause?  BTW, the interviewee is correct that Iran will want to charge for services in the Hormuz Strait, but after the 60 days the world (the U.S.) will not approve of such fees because Iran is not offering anything in exchange for the fee.   Protection?  (that is blackmail).  Safe passage through a narrow strait?  The charts already provide underwater information.  A toll to pass through is also not going to fly because other international straits do not have a passage fee.  It is nothing more than the pirates of the Barbary Coast did.

“Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace,” Foreign Affairs, 6-18-26.

“New arrest in Toronto US consulate shooting as authorities probe foreign ties of gunmen,” BBC, 6-18-26.  I’ll keep this posted until we are sure it is not Iran.  It has fingerprints.

They targeted civilians and where they live and work.  “Iran: Deadly drone strikes on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia may constitute war crimes – new research,” Amnesty International, 6-18-26.

“Saudi FM says Iran’s attacks on the GCC resulted in a significant loss of trust in Tehran,” Arab News, 6-18-26.

“Three Saudi oil tankers carrying 6 million barrels cross Strait of Hormuz,” CNBC, 6-18-26.

The history of international relations, and of war, is full of secret agreements.  This is part of how things get accomplished, countries talking outside the glare of critics or those who could sabotage movement.  See “Secret US-Iran proposals reveal fragile path toward broader nuclear deal,” CNN, 6-18-26.  BTW, Trump is being repeatedly derided in the media at present for making an agreement just like Pres. Obama did with the JCPOA.  No.  I wrote six op-eds against the Obama deal, and lots of other persons complained also.  There were many reasons to object, not the least was that at the end, after several years, Iran was free to produce nuclear weapons.

He would be more persuasive if he did this in person.  “Khamenei shifts responsibility for MoU as Iran, US implement Hormuz terms,” Iran International, 6-18-26.

“U.S. Ends Naval Blockade of Iran,” USNI, 6-18-26.

Comments typed on a social media channel are not proof.  Why won’t the media admit this?  “Iran’s supreme leader says he authorized deal, direct talks with U.S.,” Axios, 6-18-26.

“Text of US-Iran memorandum released,” Iran International, 6-17-26.  “A senior US official on Wednesday read out a 14-point memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran that outlines a high-level understanding to halt the war in Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement defers many of the most difficult issues, including how to wind down Iran’s nuclear program, until a final deal is reached, and paves the way for a broader 60-day negotiation period due to begin in Switzerland on Friday. The document, titled “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran,” was read out to reporters by the US official as follows:

1. The United States of America and the ​Islamic Republic of Iran and their ⁠allies in the current war, by signing this MoU (Memorandum of Understanding), declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on ‌all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, ​and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal ‌in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove ‌its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start ⁠and, considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and de-mining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with ‌the applicable international law and ​the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of ​Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the ⁠United States of America.
7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, ‌i.e. IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part ​of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to ‌a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the ​IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
9. Pending the final deal, the United States of America ​and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Upon the implementation of this MoU, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiation. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be ⁠established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final deal.
13. After signing this MoU, and subject to the beginning of the ⁠implementation of paragraphs 1,4,5,10 and 11 of this MoU, and ​the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.”

 

Here are my thoughts on the MOU:

-We have 60 days from yesterday (60 d after 6-17-26) to negotiate.

-Over the next 30 days Hormuz opens to full/status quo.

-Paragraph 6 holds the incentive—If Iran hits markers, up to USD 300 billion from the U.S. and regional partners for the reconstruction and economic development of ​Iran.  Paragraph 7 is tied to Para. 6, that all sanctions and resolutions will be released if Iran decides to be a normal country.  Many of the sanctioned funds in Paragraph 7 are due to Iran’s terrorism and use of missiles and proxies in the region and beyond over years.  Thus, Iran’s use of terror and missiles and proxies, etc. will be included in the 60 day negotiating period if they want the development funds.  Those funds are held for those subject bad acts and decisions.  Iran has 60 days to change its colors.  [Will it?  No].

-Para 8 says “Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.”  Then “The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to ‌a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7 with the minimum methodology to be down blending on site under the supervision of the ​IAEA.”  Iran has a very small civilian (Bushehr) nuclear energy program.  Remember, there is no “right” to nuclear energy as Iran claims—that privilege can be lost by bad acts.

-Important, by its wording/terms/importance, Paragraph 8 (the nuclear weapons program) must be negotiated before Paragraph 7.  Thus, Paragraph 6 would flow out of those talks on 8 and 7.

-Per Para. 11, the only money Iran receives during the 60 days of negotiations are the frozen or current restricted funds and assets.  How much is this?

-We will see how the 60 days goes.  It is unlikely in my observation that Iran will follow its agreement.  This also means that it is unlikely Iran will start with Paragraph 8 discussions and come to a conclusion with the U.S.

 

“The US-Iran MoU has been signed and is now in effect | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-17-26.  “US President Trump personally signed a copy of the agreement during a dinner with President Macron of France at the Palace of Versailles.”  He didn’t wait for Friday in Switzerland.  This was destined because announcing the MOU on Monday without the text to come until a Friday signing was not good PR or IR anyway.

“Deal Gives Iran Chance to Turbocharge Its Oil Revenue:  Iran could earn more than $60 billion in annual sales based on its prewar production levels and current prices,” WSJ, 6-17-26.

“How the U.S.-Iran Deal Came Down to the Wire,” NYT, 6-17-26.  “But two Iranian officials said Tehran waited until the clock passed midnight local time to finalize the agreement, because it did not want the momentous occasion to coincide with Mr. Trump’s birthday. The seven-and-a-half-hour time difference allowed both Tehran and Washington to claim their preferred version of when the deal was finalized. Mr. Trump had said it would be on Sunday, and Iran had said it would be on a later day.”

“I’m a victim.”  The martyrdom complex.  Iran plays it well.  The thing I want to communicate though is that the coach, Amir Ghalenoei, is lying.  He says they found out after the game they had to leave for their training camp just across the border in Tijuana.  Well, I’ve known this for days—I read the news.  And he’s known it for a week.  See “’Oppressed’ Iran forced to leave U.S. after New Zealand draw,” ESPN, 6-16-26.  But then see “Iran team escorted to Tijuana stadium by Mexico’s National Guard:  Iran will play all of their group games in the US, flying in and out of the country each match day,” The National, 6-9-26.  For those who have followed for years how the Regime has “managed” its teams and “managed” those it plays and those it refuses to play (Jews, for example) and how the Quds Force/IRGC is involved in all things, the U.S. has actually upheld its decision quite well for the World Cup to allow a long time belligerent to access our soil.  “This is the first World Cup since the tournament’s inception in 1930 in which a host nation is set to receive a country with which it is actively at war, according to Reuters.”  See “Iran team arrive in US for World Cup opener as the two nations reach peace deal,” Reuters, 6-14-26.

News like this lets us evaluate whether the Regime is truthful, because we can check the MOU.  “Iran says the initial deal to end the war with the US requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon,” AP, 6-16-26.  Was Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi accurately presenting information?  No.  The AP should run a follow-up story pointing this out.  The full document is posted in full on this blog in the 6-17 entry.  Paragraph 1 is the relevant section, and mentions Lebanon three times.  Hezbollah (Iran) and Israel are not parties to the MOU, and are instead treated as agents of Iran and the U.S.  Para. 1 says nothing about withdrawal by Israel.  Instead it speaks in terms on “termination of military operations” and “refrain from the threat or use of force against each other.”  Israel is supposed to stop fighting, as is Hezbollah, but Israel is not precluded by the MOU by maintaining a security zone in southern Lebanon.  They can sit pat.

“Iran War Live Updates: U.S.-Iran Framework Brings Relief, but Challenges Loom,” NYT, 6-15-26.  Here’s what I think about the agreement announced.  It is a ceasefire.  Really.  It takes what is supposed to be the situation right now (an open international strait) and declares it.  That is not an agreement, that is simply the result of a blockade.  But the strait’s status, the blockade, the nuclear program, everything, is put off during 60 days of negotiations.  That, my friends, is simply a ceasefire.  Another aspect of the NYT story about which to comment—pictured for the story are Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei.  That is a slap at the President since the Supreme Leader is not equated with such, and is also disabled or dead.

“Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Sign Preliminary Deal, but Its Terms Remain Secret,” NYT, 6-15-26.

“Trump says Hormuz to fully reopen Friday, vows to release MoU text afterward,” Iran International, 6-15-26.

“Agreement with Iran reached, Trump says,” CNN, 6-14-26.  “US President Donald Trump says an agreement with Iran has been reached and that the US will end its naval blockade on the country. Tehran has not immediately confirmed the agreement. Key mediator Pakistan said an official signing ceremony will take place in Switzerland on Friday.”  But what are the terms?

“Iran says draft US deal includes oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits and asset release,” Al Monitor, 6-14-26.

“Iran, U.S. reach deal to end war, ‘including in Lebanon,’ and reopen Strait of Hormuz,” CBC, 6-14-26.

“Trump says agreement with Iran will be signed Sunday,” Politico, 6-13-26.  “Iran has not publicly confirmed Trump’s timeline for the signing of the agreement.”  But Hormuz will be open.  Doesn’t look the nuclear weapons file is closed.

“Report: Iran fortifies uranium stockpile with booby-trapped entrances,” i24, 6-13-26.

Of course.  “Iran hardliners rally against emerging US deal on eve of signing ceremony,” Iran International, 6-13-26.  Chanting “Death to Araghchi.”

Iran chose the date on purpose to coincide and detract from the U.S. 250 celebration.  “Funeral for Iran’s Khamenei to kick off July 4, burial set for 5 days later,” i24, 6-13-26.  And please remember the government will allow the Supreme Leader Khamenei a funeral, but none of the protesters were allowed a funeral.

Uh oh Politico.  Here is the headline:  “Iranian ambassador at World Cup: ‘Iran and the U.S. can be very good friends’,” Politico, 6-13-26.  Here is the quote from Iran’s ambassador to Mexico, Abolfazl Pasandideh:  ““If the U.S. closes its eyes to Israel’s interests, Iran and the U.S. can be very good friends.”  So the message, repeated so often on this blog, is that the 1979 Regime is deadest against the U.S. and discriminatory against Israel, wanting to wipe them off the map.  The MOU to be signed Sunday doesn’t change that.  Politico should have used the correct headline.

“UAE denies ‘false’ reports of fund transfer to Iran,” CNBC, 6-13-26.

“Deal with Iran ‘includes Lebanon,’ but Israel has right to self-defense — US official,” Times of Israel, 6-12-26.

“Report: Israel would be required to withdraw completely from Lebanon under US-Iran deal,” Times of Israel, 6-12-26.

“Exclusive: UAE to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, sources say,” Reuters, 6-12-26.

“Pakistan says U.S.-Iran deal text has been reached; Iran holding ‘final’ deliberations,” NBC, 6-12-26.

“A Dangerous Limbo Leaves Iran, and the World, Between Peace and War,” NYT, 6-12-26.

“U.S., Iran expected to “electronically” sign agreement to end war Sunday,” Axios, 6-12-26.  A really unusual procedure under the conditions.

“Trump claims deal to end Iran war near as Tehran says ‘nothing’ finalized,” BBC, 6-11-26.

“More than 50 Iranian military bases damaged in US strikes since start of war, satellite images show,” BBC, 6-11-26.

“MoU with Iran satisfies ‘all US requirements’, diplomat tells Axios,” Iran International, 6-11-26.  “A US-Iran MoU that Trump says will soon be signed would immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, tie sanctions relief to Iranian compliance, extend the ceasefire for 60 days including in Lebanon, and open nuclear talks on a framework for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile pending a second, more detailed accord, Axios reported citing a diplomat from one of the mediating countries and a US official. The MOU, which still needs final sign-off, “goes into details on all the nuclear issues” and “satisfies all US requirements,” the report said citing the diplomat, even though any steps on Iran’s nuclear program would only take place if a second deal is reached.”

“Jordan says it shot down five Iranian missiles,” Iran International, 6-10-26.

“Arab condemnation of Iranian attacks targeting Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait,” Ammon News, 6-10-26.

“Drone Boat Rescues Crew of Downed U.S. Apache Helicopter Near Hormuz,” WSJ, 6-9-26.

“US launches strikes on Iran in response to downing of helicopter, military says,” BBC, 6-9-26.

“Iran war updates: Trump claims Iran shot down helicopter, vows to ‘respond’,” Al Jazeera, 6-9-26.