“UAE condemns Iran’s ‘brazen’ attack on tankers as US launches fresh strikes,” BBC, 7-14-26.
“Was the Mossad’s Ahmadinejad operation a failure, or did Trump kill it? – analysis,” JPost, 7-14-26. Fascinating story. Ahmadinejad in the course of this reporting said he was not under house arrest–so what does he call it? Does he explain that he uses DoorDash? And Pizza Hut delivery? All the time?
What about the 60 day MOU? And the Ceasefire? Who violated which and when? One of the advantages of having the daily news of Iran in front of us in this blog is that you can scroll through the last 10 or 20 days or so of news quickly and look at what happened. Here, as I think you know, the MOU and Ceasefire were violated by Iran, most recently after Iran shot at ships last week to halt traffic using the U.S.-supported route through the strait near Oman. See “Trump Says He Is Reimposing the U.S. Blockade of Iran,” WSJ, 7-13-26. “[MOU] Paragraph 5, which says Iran will make arrangements to restore shipping through the strategic waterway and then work with Oman to determine how to administer it in the future. But it also includes an Iranian pledge to ensure safe passage and remove military obstacles such as mines. … [T]he text clearly requires Iran to open the strait and stop shooting at ships. Iranian hard-liners, however, have used it to push for exclusive control over the waterway as a source of leverage. Iran has been pressuring Oman, which controls the southern side of the strait, to go along with its plan to take control. Instead, Oman has been operating a channel through the strategic waterway that runs through its territorial waters and skirts the lanes managed by Tehran. During a visit by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday, Oman offered a compromise under which no tolls would be charged in Oman’s territorial waters and Iran would decide what it wants for its own maritime corridor. … Iran rejected the compromise. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps signaled its displeasure with the idea by firing at ships in the waterway. … Iran struck Oman during the exchanges of fire in recent days, escalating the conflict. … Iran hit the port town of Duqm and an Omani naval base in Musandam, which serves as an operations center for monitoring traffic in the strait.” See also “Trump notifies Congress of new war against Iran,” Politico, 7-13-26.
Finally. And this added to the fuel to drive PM Starmer from office. If you’ve been to London, you’ve seen and heard the permanent protesters near 10 Downing Street but also heard the collective will over more than five years of the people to get this done. “U.K. to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group,” WPost, 7-13-26. Starmer could never really pull himself to stand against this serious terror threat. “The designation comes after U.K. authorities linked the IRGC and its proxies to a wave of violent plots on British soil, including bombing and assassination attempts targeting Iranian journalists and activists in Britain. … The surge of attacks by … [t]he group, called the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right, or IMCR, has “claimed seven attacks at U.K. locations linked to Jewish and Israeli communities and Persian-language media,” the Home Office statement said. “Sitting behind IMCR were members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force, who almost certainly directed IMCR attacks across Europe.”
“President Donald Trump returned to Hugh’s program today with a focus on Iran,” Hugh Hewitt Show, 7-13-26.
“Jordan Air Defense Systems Intercept and Neutralize Four Iranian Missiles,” Petra News, 7-13-26.
“Oil prices rise as U.S. launches new Iran airstrikes, while Trump abandons Strait of Hormuz fee,” CNBC, 7-13-26.
“Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM says,” Iran International, 7-12-26. Important for now and the future of this strait and others around the world. “US Central Command on Sunday rejected an Iranian commander’s claim that foreign vessels could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz without being identified, tracked and monitored by Iran’s forces. [by the so-called Persian Gulf Strait Authority] CENTCOM said Iran did not control the Strait of Hormuz and that it remained an international waterway. It said US forces were positioned and prepared to keep the waterway open.”
The threats and strikes against Oman and the rest of the GCC continue. Winning friends and neighbors the hard way, does Iran. Here are stories at Iran International, 7-12-26. “Oman summoned Iran’s ambassador on Sunday to protest drone attacks targeting sites in the governorates of Musandam and Al Wusta, Oman’s foreign ministry said.” “Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi on Sunday condemned continued Iranian attacks targeting the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan, as well as commercial vessels.” “The Revolutionary Guards-affiliated Tasnim news agency said Iranian forces had struck US-linked targets in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman in response to US attacks.” And “The Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday they struck US naval logistics facilities and aircraft carrier refueling platforms at the Omani port of Duqm in retaliation for US attacks.”
“Hard-Liners in Iran Want to Keep Fighting America,” NYT, 7-12-26. This article is not a surprise, because that is what the revolutionary Shia have always done, and is the point of this blog. As long as they are in control (since 1979 at this point in history) they will always be a threat to the Sunnis, their neighbor states, the U.S., Israel, Europe, etc. Here is a quote from this story making this point about the IRGC/Quds/Supreme Leader/Qom/pick your name or sub-group as they look for revenge due to their perceived minority status. During the Leader’s funeral, [m]any were emblazoned with an Arabic phrase that means “O Vengeance for Hussein.” The death of Imam Hussein in A.D. 680 at the hands of a tyrant is a significant Shiite symbol for avenging innocent blood and resisting tyranny.”
“Jordan and Saudi Arabia Condemn Repeated Iranian Attacks on Arab States,” Jordan News, 7-12-26.
It is not, of course, just the military/IRGC and Quds Force that promise to keep up terrorism and missile attacks. It is the new Supreme Leader himself (is he alive? he won’t show even a picture of himself. we dare him) who says the country will take its revenge on the U.S. and the President and its citizens. The second thing of note from this NYT article is the reminder that Iran is pivoting as the Regime loses some military power due to the Feb. War but sees that Hormuz is its main method to threaten to strangle the world. The meeting right now between the Iran FM with Oman’s leadership is not just an invitation to control (blackmail) and charge fees for Hormuz, though, it is also a threat to Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the Sultan and Prime Minister of Oman. See “Iran’s Top Diplomat in Oman for Talks on Strait, As Ayatollah Vows Revenge,” NYT, 7-11-26.
“Strict Terms from Washington Before Agreement with Tehran,” Jordan News, 7-11-26. Jordan is one of the best bell-weather countries.
NPR allowed former General Votel to explain clearly several issues, including how the U.S. bases and facilities will probably relocate. “Retired Gen. Joseph Votel on the U.S. strikes on Iran and Tehran’s capabilities,” NPR, 7-11-26.
Well-described. “Aspiring to Regional Domination, Iran Is Ready to Escalate Over Hormuz,” WSJ, 7-11-26. “New outbreak of fighting over the strait comes as Tehran sees itself as a winner in the war that would establish a new Pax Iranica in the Middle East.” … “For the Iranian regime, keeping a chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz has turned out to be more important than the tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief from the Trump administration. That is because Tehran is playing a long game. Iranian officials believe the country has finally emerged as a regional hegemon, after the U.S. and Israel failed to achieve their main goals in the war they unleashed in February. And, as long as Tehran cements this new status by securing permanent arrangements to control the vital waterway—and dominating the Persian Gulf economies along with it—then the rest, including American sanctions relief, will eventually follow. … This attitude heralds a rocky future, with regular bouts of violence, continuing uncertainty for global energy markets and a Damoclean Sword of renewed strikes hanging over the Gulf monarchies. “The Islamic Republic will become even more of a gangster regime. Its takeaway from the war is that concessions are won through coercion—by attacking its neighbors, threatening the Strait of Hormuz and driving up the price of oil,” said Karim Sadjadpour, Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Like Putin’s Russia, the Islamic Republic believes that its security depends not on the prosperity of its people, but on the insecurity of its neighbors.” And, just like Russia in its own neighborhood, the Iranian regime views the oil-rich Gulf monarchies as belonging to its own natural sphere of influence—a sphere denied to it by American meddling ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. … Now that America has failed to protect these Gulf states from Iranian attacks, Tehran’s drive to institutionalize Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz reflects its ambition to establish a new Pax Iranica in the Middle East. After all, the Gulf countries, to a varying extent, rely on the strait not just for their oil and gas exports, but also for other vital supplies, from consumer items to food. … “They have reached the conclusion that they are facing the tyranny of geography—the Islamic Republic is still there, President Trump is not going to be president of the United States forever, and they have to live side by side with the Iranians,” said Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran and Shiite Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “They have to face the reality.””
“Iran faces region’s harshest mix of wartime contraction and inflation,” Iran International, 7-11-26.
We’ll let News.AZ have a turn appearing in the blog, but you can find this story everywhere about the head of the IRGC who has been in hiding since the end of February. Well, really before that, too. His own people want him gone. Here’s the story, a reminder from Ahmad Vahdi that for the rest of the Regime’s life it will not be a moderating or normal country. “IRGC chief vows revenge for Supreme Leader Khamenei’s killing,” News.AZ, 7-10-26.
“Live updates: Iran reportedly plotted to target Trump; independent election board Dems fired,” The Hill, 7-10-26. “It comes as reporting indicates a security threat reportedly prompted the Secret Service to have Trump depart Turkey on an older Air Force One, which is believed to have more defensive measures than the newer, Qatari-gifted one.” The Qatari jet doesn’t have some of the missile defense abilities as the previous Air Force One, and the Iranians know this. See also “Israel warns US of new Iranian plot to assassinate Trump as tensions in region grow – report,” JPost, 7-10-26.
“U.S. demands Iran affirm Strait of Hormuz is fully open after exchange of strikes, officials say,” The Hill, 7-10-26. Under the MOU, Iran is supposed to leave Hormuz open. Let it be known that we all see this serious violation.
Another MOU violation, if true. “CNN Exclusive: New satellite imagery reveals Iran may be rebuilding suspected nuclear facilities,” CNN, 7-10-26.
Bad news, but not unexpected. “US sees Iran nuclear deal as increasingly unlikely – WSJ,” Iran International, 7-10-26. “The Trump administration believes the chances of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran are diminishing. … US officials said that if Iran cannot abide by the interim agreement which provided Tehran with financial benefits in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, there is little hope of reaching a far more complex nuclear deal.”
An update on the possible futher progress of the Abraham Accords, which Iran is doing everything it can to scuttle, including backing the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas against Israel. See “Saudi Arabia’s Challenge to the Abraham Accords,” JINSA, 7-10-26. “This [current] Saudi assessment of Israel and Iran as equally destabilizing forces is politically powerful, but it rests on a false equivalence. Iran is revisionist in its regional purpose: it seeks to reorder the Arab world through proxies, missiles, nuclear threat, and coercive control of maritime chokepoints. Israel, after October 7, became revisionist in its operational method: it no longer accepts prior constraints on the use of force against threats it judges existential. The Saudi strategy rests on collapsing these into a single category.”
“Iran Hatched Fresh Plot to Kill Trump, Israel Told U.S.,” WSJ, 7-9-26.
“Ali Khamenei buried as US signals Iran talks may continue,” Iran International, 7-9-26. Pres. Trump did not let the heightened threats derail the negotiations.
“Live updates: Trump says Iran ceasefire is ‘over’ after new attacks, but negotiations can continue,” NBC, 7-8-26.
“Explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Bushehr area in southern Iran – Iranian media | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 7-8-26.
“Tehran targets Bahrain and Kuwait after U.S. strikes,” AP, 7-8-26.
“Iranian official issues warning to Trump over new threats: ‘We have no red lines’,” The Hill, 7-8-26.
“Iran’s environmental catastrophe has also wrecked its economy,” Times of Israel, 7-8-26.
“Mass Mournings In Qom, Where Khamenei Ruled Supreme Over Iran’s Clerics,” NYT, 7-7-26. About 20% of citizens support the Ayatollah, as reported elsewhere on this blog.
“Resistance and revenge – Iran wanted to send a message with its farewell to Khamenei,” BBC, 7-7-26.
“Trump says U.S. will win Iran war “one way or the other” as Tehran holds funeral for supreme leader,” CBS, 7-7-26.
Al Jazeera shows in this article its irresponsible reporting at times. Here it repeats a Tehran analyst that there are mines near Oman, and does not rely on other reporting that the way is clear, and that other ships have transited it, leaving readers with the distinct impression that warning shots were not heeded by the two tankers, and that the IRGC actually saved them from destruction. What a farce. See “Saudi, Qatari tankers hit as Strait of Hormuz risks worsen,” Al Jazeera, 7-7-26.
This is the best newspiece I’ve seen today on the Supreme Leader’s funeral, an interview by NPR of Kian Tajbakhsh (teaches IR at NYU). “Iranian-American scholar discusses ayatollah’s funeral and country’s future,” NPR, 6-6-26. There is little consent in what we are seeing, that maybe only 20% of the country supports the Regime; 60% don’t support the government. And the last time we saw so many in the streets they were brutaly suppressed. The message of “Death to America” (in English) is real. The Regime has not learned its lesson, will refuse to join the community of nations, and will use the Hormuz Strait against the world. They will continue to aim for death, pressure, terror, and revenge. They want long-term Iranian domination in the region. The cease-fire negotiations will continue to struggle.
Iran International remains a great source. Here are several articles from today. Iran International, 7-6-26. “ANALYSIS: The end of one-man rule? Iran tests life after Khamenei,” “As Iran adjusts to life after Ali Khamenei, a question once considered unthinkable is moving into the open: is the role of Supreme Leader itself being redefined? For nearly half a century, the Islamic Republic has rested on one central principle: the Supreme Leader has the final word. … [Now] Vice President for Executive Affairs Mohammad-Jafar Ghaempanah argued that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s views were subject to institutional review rather than automatic implementation.” And “Qatari LNG tanker among ships hit near Strait of Hormuz – WSJ.” And “Iran’s costly farewell for supreme leader draws backlash.” And “Nearly a third of Hormuz vessels take Oman route – CNN.” And “Pezeshkian greeted with ‘death to compromiser’ chants at Khamenei funeral.” And “Iraq’s top Shia cleric [Sistani] unable to lead Khamenei funeral prayer due to ill health.” And “Ghalibaf says Khamenei’s killers will be punished.” It is this last article that I draw your attention. “Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said those responsible for the killing of Ali Khamenei would be punished, adding that the “final step of revenge” would be realized through the “liberation of Jerusalem.” In a message marking Khamenei’s funeral procession in Tehran, Ghalibaf said Iranians had spent the past four months chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” and demanding revenge against what he called “the killers of our martyred imam.” So, terror continues, attacks against the U.S. will continue, and the aim is to capture Jerusalem.
“Iran resumes attacks in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. says,” Axios, 7-6-26. “Iran’s military fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night.” About 30% of pre-war shipping is getting through daily now.
You ask “What is going on with Iran attacking ships unprovoked? They are moving through Hormuz on the Oman side, refusing to set a precedent and later fee to Iran for passing through an international strait. So Iran is letting them have it. It is blackmail, pure and simple. Pass through on my side (and pay me) or I will shoot you. See “US strikes Iran in retaliation for targeting three commercial vessels in Hormuz | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 6-6-26. Wisely, “US revokes a general license that allowed Iranian oil sales, after calling Iran’s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz ‘wholly unacceptable’.”
“Israel fortifies border with Jordan as Iran seeks new terror path,” Fox, 7-6-26. Quote of the day, despite the IRGC’s efforts. “We have the same agenda as Jordan: To keep the border peaceful.”
“Iran’s Most Favored Strait of Hormuz Nation Is China,” WSJ, 7-6-26. Very concerning that “Beijing will receive a friends-and-family deal in transiting the waterway.” “Speaking in Beijing on Saturday, Iran’s Ambassador to China said his regime “will definitely charge service fees” to transit the Strait. But China and other Iranian friends may receive “special considerations” regarding the level and type of fee. Iranian foreign policy will be the determining factor for global energy flows.” Here are my thoughts, again—the strait has to be open or blackmail and piracy overtake international affairs. We see that smart vessels are taking the Oman route, turning off transponders, using U-turns, and relying on U.S. protection. Look at this statement from the WSJ—“Iran’s grant of favored passage to China underscores that the axis of U.S. adversaries continues to work together to the detriment of U.S. interests. Tehran depends on Beijing to buy its oil and reconstitute its missile program. Moscow sends military hardware and intelligence in exchange for mass-produced Iranian drones and munitions. An Iranian-owned Strait could well grant free passage—for them.”
Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. “Cargo vessel in Red Sea reports coming under attack, UK maritime body says,” CNBC, 7-5-26.
“Khamenei’s other sons appear at his funeral in Iran as new supreme leader remains in hiding,” AP, 7-5-26.
“Eulogist at Khamenei funeral in Iran calls for death of Donald Trump,” Euronews, 7-5-26.
