More details.  “‘Safe and sound’: How a U.S. Airman Shot Down in Iran Was Rescued From a Mountain Crevice,” Time, 4-6-26.  A defense official told Axios that the pilot and the airman “were spread apart by a couple miles” with “hundreds” of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soldiers “everywhere.”  … After the crash landing, the colonel hiked up a 7,000-foot mountain ridgeline and hid in a crevice. While evading capture, he activated an emergency beacon, which allowed U.S. forces to locate him, two U.S. officials told Fox News. A military official told the New York Times that the airman’s signaling was intermittent. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was at the center of the operation, launching a deception campaign to throw Iranian officials off, according to Axios. It said CIA operatives spread a false campaign within Iran that both crew members of the downed F-15 jet had already been found and that U.S. forces were working on exfiltration, trying to confuse Iranian officials who were also working to capture the officer. Trump told Axios that U.S. officials initially suspected the airman might be in Iranian captivity and “sending false signals” to create a trap. The airman had sent a short radio message that said “God is good,” a defense official told Axios. (Trump told the outlet the message said “Power be to God” and that “what he said on the radio sounded like something a Muslim would say.”) The CIA used special technology to locate the airman and determine that it was him, an official told the Times. The CIA also reportedly facilitated an “unconventional assisted recovery,” a process in which the agency contacts civilians willing to aid or shelter U.S. military forces, Axios reported. While the airman was hiding in the mountains, IRGC said it was searching the area near where the pilot’s plane came down, and Iranian officials issued a public plea for locals to find the crew member, offering a reward of $60,000. Videos posted online showed locals from the area where the jet went down forming search parties to find the airman. According to the Times, U.S. aircraft dropped bombs on convoys that approached the area where the airman was hiding. When the airman was found, he was taken to two MC-130J aircraft that were waiting nearby to exfiltrate him out of the country. But the aircraft malfunctioned, which led to U.S. forces destroying the two disabled planes and four helicopters, the Times reported. The commandos and injured airman were eventually reloaded onto three replacement aircraft, according to the Times.”  I’m waiting to hear how the airman was transported from hiding place to waiting aircraft (that had to be destroyed).  What a story, wait for the movie.  And you didn’t hear this from me, right?  Do you remember that Russia and China are providing targeting information to Iran?  Do you think if they could read where the pilot was hiding from his emergency beacon that they would have passed that on to Iran?

“Iran says intelligence chief killed by US-Israeli strike, as Trump threatens ‘hell’ if deal not made,” BBC, 4-6-26.  Israel has struck the IRGC intelligence chief Majid Khademi.  See also “Slain IRGC spy chief led operations against Israel, US, IDF says,” Iran International, 4-6-26.  “Majid Khademi, the head of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence arm killed in Tehran on Sunday, was involved in activities against Israel, the US, and Iranian dissidents, the Israeli military said on Monday. “Khademi worked to advance terrorist activities against the State of Israel and against Jewish targets worldwide. He also took part in attempts to target American individuals and was responsible for monitoring Iranian civilians as part of the regime’s suppression of internal protests,” read the statement by Israel Defense Forces. The IDF described him as a key figure in operations directed both abroad and inside Iran.”

Just yesterday, much of the world condemned the Knesset law allowing the death penalty for Palestinians killing Jews in the West Bank.  But where is the condemnation from Iran’s Parliament approval of the death penalty for protesters?  See “Death penalty one of many tactics used by Iranian regime to prevent further protests,” BBC, 4-6-26.  “From what people have told me from the capital, on some nights, aside from the sound of strikes and explosions, there is another noise that prevents people from sleeping. It is the sound of patrols moving through the streets with the Islamic Republic’s flag and loudspeakers which can reinforce a constant sense of control. Other tactics have also been used, including checkpoints appearing across cities, the internet blackout, and mass text warnings sent to residents. These measures limit communication, making it more difficult for protests to form and spread.”  BTW, just to make it clear that I don’t endorse the new law in Israel, here on this blog I fully stand behind the points of the article, “The death penalty law for Palestinians convicted of deadly acts of terror is unconstitutional,” Times of Israel, 4-3-26.

“Israel killed Quds Force Unit 840 commander, Netanyahu says,” Iran International, 4-6-26.  “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel killed Asghar Bakri – aka Yazdan Mir or Commander Bagheri – the head of Unit 840 in Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force, in an overnight operation, according to a post on X. Netanyahu said Bakri had been responsible for attacks targeting Jews and Israelis around the world. He also said Israel killed Majid Khademi, the head of IRGC intelligence, describing him as a senior figure who had recently taken up the post after his predecessor was killed. “Whoever acts to murder our citizens, whoever directs terror against the State of Israel, whoever builds the Iranian axis of evil, bears responsibility for his own blood,” Netanyahu said.”  It really is quite striking that after years of Iran trying to kill Israel, putting the Ayatollah’s words into actions, that Israel is finally able to stop much of this, certainly to deter.  Intelligence agencies and militaries around the world competely understand what is going on here.

More details.  The noses of the C-130s sunk, which will be subject of evaluation.  “A Harrowing Race Against Time to Find a Downed U.S. Airman in Iran,” NYT, 4-6-26.  “A senior U.S. official described the rescue mission as one of the most challenging and complex in the history of U.S. Special Operations. The commandos had to contend with the mountainous terrain, the Iranian forces that they assumed would rush to attack them and the injured airman’s health, which remained uncertain. As the commandos landed on the objective, U.S. and Israeli warplanes dropped bombs whose bright orange blasts lit up the silhouettes of the surrounding mountains. From his hiding place, the weapons officer alerted his rescuers to the areas they should target for strikes, where he could see Iranians advancing, one senior military official said. The commandos fired their weapons ferociously to keep any Iranians in the area from advancing toward them. But they did not engage in a firefight with enemy forces. U.S. officials described the territory where the airman was hiding as strongly opposed to the Iranian regime and said it was unclear how close Iranian forces ever got to the site. He was rushed to a helicopter that whisked him off to a sandy, austere airstrip inside Iran that Special Operations forces had previously developed for possible rescues or other contingencies. The plan was to immediately load the airman and the rescue force onto two C-130 aircraft that were supposed to carry them out of danger to an airfield in Kuwait. But, in a final twist, the nose gear of at least one, and possibly both, of those planes got stuck in the sandy dirt at the airstrip, military officials said. Hours passed. Efforts to free the stuck wheels failed, so the commandos called in three replacement aircraft. … Eventually the commandos and the injured weapons system operator were reloaded onto three newly arrived replacement aircraft. After the rescue team left, American warplanes bombed the two disabled planes and four MH-6 Special Operations helicopters rather than let them fall into Iranian hands. As the sun was rising, the three planes launched in succession from the remote airstrip. The plane carrying the rescued airman went first followed by the others. When word reached the White House that the aircraft had cleared Iranian airspace, Mr. Trump announced the mission’s success. … All of the commandos were safe and accounted for. There were no U.S. casualties.”

Notice that with the death of the two officials over the weekend, there was not a statement from “the third ayatollah” Mojtaba Khamenei.  Maybe there’s a reason.  See “The Latest Blows to Iran’s Leadership,” NYT, 4-6-26.

“Iran pushes back against Trump’s deadline,” NPR, 4-6-26.

“Pakistan-backed proposal sketches two-phase deal to halt hostilities,” Iran International, 4-6-26.

It is an interesting thought to debate whether the terrorists (IRGC, Houthis) have grown so powerful they now threaten the entire world (trade and power) or if they have grown so desperate they now endanger themselves from the world’s ire?  See “Iran threatens Bab al-Mandeb closure: How would that affect world trade?,” Al Jazeera, 4-6-26.

This was no ordinary university.  Its professors conducted some of the nuclear weapons program research.  Too bad the article didn’t mention this.  “Iran’s top university bombed as US, Israel intensify attacks; 34 killed,” Al Jazeera, 4-6-26.

“Iran withholds body of executed teen protester,” Iran International, 4-6-26.  This is a typical example of Iranian justice.  “Judicial authorities accused the detainees of attempting to access an armory. After interrogations that involved severe psychological pressure, they were transferred to Ghezel Hesar prison, the source said. The defendants were denied in-person visits during detention and were only allowed phone calls. Their trial was held by Judge Abolghasem Salavati, and they were denied access to a lawyer of their choice. Death sentences were issued on February 7. Iran International sources said the confessions in the case were obtained under coercion and that the judicial process led to executions without full awareness of the defendants and their families.”

The only news that matters today.  “‘Injured but safe’: Trump says US airman rescued in ‘miraculous’ mission,” Iran International, 4-5-26.  “The second crew member of the downed F15E fighter jet has been rescued and he and the members of the rescue team that extracted him from Iran are all safely out of the country, Fox News reported, hours after Iran reported deadly airstrikes on the region where the pilot went missing.”  See also “Israel assisted in US rescue mission of downed airman in Iran,” Fox, 4-5-26.

You’re able to read these details first on i24.  “Inside the dramatic special operation rescuing a US fighter crew in Iran,” i24, 4-5-26.

It sounds like SEAL Team 6 joined him on the ridge and held off Iranian forces.  Then copter extraction.  We will soon hear about the two C-130s we lost.  “What We Know About the Rescue of a U.S. Airman After Two Jet Crashes,” NYT, 4-5-26.

No, the two positions are not equal.  Even if they are both wrong, they are not equal.  The NYT is ignoring the track records.  The NYT is also ignoring what Iran would have done if they had found the pilot.  “Iran’s Downing of Plane and U.S. Rescue Leave Both Sides Dangerously Emboldened,” NYT, 4-5-26.

This is in response to the story about China, one of which I have on the blog just a few days ago.  “Satellite firm says it’s indefinitely withholding Iran war images at US request,” Times of Israel, 4-5-26.

“Saudi Arabia and UAE intercept Iranian missiles and drones,” Sana, 4-5-26.

Notice the headline.  “Missing Airman Raises Concerns That Iran Could Gain Leverage Over the U.S.,” NYT, 4-4-26.  The sub-headline is “Since 1979, Iran has repeatedly used Americans and Europeans detained on its territory to win concessions over more powerful adversaries.”  Can we please rephrase the headline to be more accurate?  Something like, “Missing Airman Raises Concerns That Iran Could Hold Him as Hostage,” or “Iran Will Most Likely Follow Practice of Holding the Found Pilot Hostage.”  Let’s call a spade a spade, a terroristic, pirate act as such.  They have held hundreds of hostages and have received hundreds of millions of dollars in ranson from multiple countries.  BTW, based on what the Obama and Biden administrations gave in cash to the Regime at hostage release times, I predict that if Iran finds the F-15 crew member the asking price will be $2 billion.

MEK, arrested two years ago.  “Iran executes two linked to opposition group, media say,” Reuters, 4-4-26.

China targeting U.S. forces, it’s not just Russa.  “Chinese firms market Iran war intelligence ‘exposing’ U.S. forces,” WPost, 4-4-26.  “Beijing has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting private firms developing AI with practical defense applications under its civil-military integration strategy, and last month announced plans to supercharge those efforts as part of a broader five-year national strategy.”  (Remember, in China the private-government distinction is not really present.  China uses these groups to save the government money but also to feign non-responsibility for their actions.)  “Private firms have long used open-source data — including flight trackers, satellite imagery, and shipping data — to generate market intelligence. But the growing AI capability of Chinese firms is making these tools more powerful, underscoring the growing challenge of concealing U.S. military movements from adversaries.  “The proliferation of more and more capable private sector geospatial analysis companies in China will augment China’s defense capabilities and ability to contest U.S. forces in a crisis,” said Ryan Fedasiuk, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank.  MizarVision, a Hangzhou-based firm founded in 2021, is one of the companies that uses a mix of Western and Chinese data filtered through AI to catalogue activity at U.S. bases in the Middle East, track naval movements and identify the position and number of specific aircraft and missile defense systems. Images sourced to the firm — which is not part of China’s military but holds a National Military Standard certification required for firms supplying services to the People’s Liberation Army — and posted on Chinese and Western social media, for example, detailed the buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East on the eve of the launch of Operation Epic Fury, including the passage of the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups. It also shared detailed breakdowns of the number and types of aircraft massing at Israel’s Ovda Air Base, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base and Qatar’s al-Udeid Air Base. “In the lead-up to the escalation of tensions in Iran in 2026, we quickly identified the locations of weapons and equipment deployed in the Middle East,” and “exposed” the refueling patterns of U.S. carrier groups, MizarVizion’s website claims. Elsewhere on the site, it claims to have tracked U.S. military escalation ahead of the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro “months in advance” and says it can “track the entire transport process” of U.S. medium-range missiles in the Asia Pacific “in real time.” MizarVision … does not disclose the sources of the data it analyzes — including satellite imagery, ADS-B flight data and ship AIS data — though Chinese state media reports, an analysis of images posted online and accounts from two users of the company’s platform suggest it draws on a mix of Chinese and Western sources.”

“Iran’s ‘new’ regime looks much the same, only harsher,” CNN, 4-4-26.  If so, let’s don’t give them Hormuz.  If not, let’s not give them Hormuz.  Either way, let’s not give them Hormuz.

“IDF believes Iran still has over 1,000 ballistic missiles that can reach Israel, intelligence officer says,” Times of Israel, 4-4-26.  “The Israeli military believes that Iran still has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles that can reach Israel, an Israeli Air Force intelligence officer tells Channel 12 news. “The Iranians have more than 1,000 missiles that are capable of reaching Israel,” says Lt. Col. “Tet,” who leads the research on Iran’s missiles and drones in the Air Intelligence Group, the IAF’s intel unit. At the start of the war, the IDF assessed that Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles. Iran has since fired over 500 missiles at Israel, as well as hundreds at other countries in the Middle East, and potentially hundreds of missiles were destroyed in strikes. Iran’s missile fire on Israel has slowed to around 10-15 missiles a day in recent weeks, down from around 90 on the first day of the war.”

“UNSC delays vote on force to protect Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 4-3-26.  “The vote on the Bahrain-led draft resolution was postponed due to Good Friday, according to an AFP report

We are back to January 2026, or maybe we never left, as “enemy combatant” can be shot on sight.  See “Iran state TV warns public against disclosing officials’ hiding places,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“UN Security Council vote on Hormuz resolution removed from schedule,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

My guess is Quds Force.  “US expelled Iran deputy UN envoy over security concerns – Axios,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

This opens up the IAEA personnel to attack or to be hostages.  “Iran’s accuses IAEA of ‘complicity’ in war,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“Rescue effort underway after Iran shoots down U.S. fighter jet manned by 2 crew,” i24, 4-3-26.  See also “An F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, American officials and Iran say,” NYT, 4-3-26.  “Iran shot down a U.S. fighter jet over the country, U.S. and Israeli officials as well as Iranian state-affiliated media said on Friday. The fate of the plane’s crew was unclear, as American officials scrambled to mount a search and rescue operation before Iran could get to any survivors, said the U.S. and Israeli officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss military operations.”

“American fighter jet downed over Iran, 1 crew member rescued, U.S. officials say,” CBS, 4-3-26.  A reward has been announced by the Regime to capture or kill the airmen.

Obviously two planes in one day is big news.  “Second US warplane crashes near Hormuz, pilot rescued – NYT,” Iran International, 4-3-26.  “A second US Air Force combat aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, with the pilot safely rescued, the New York Times reported, citing two US officials. The aircraft, an A-10 Warthog, went down near the Strait of Hormuz around the same time an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, the report said.”

“Exiled prince calls for Iraqi militias to be expelled from Iran,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“Qatar reluctant to lead mediation for US-Iran ceasefire – WSJ,” Iran International, 4-3-26.

“Pakistan-led efforts to broker US-Iran ceasefire hit dead end – WSJ,” Iran International, 4-3-26.  “The report said recent mediation attempts stalled after disagreements over the terms of a potential halt in hostilities.”

I continue to harp on this.  Other countries, who have their leaders of course, need to make this a mainstay of their daily comments and demands.  If we can’t believe Iran on whether they have a person in charge, what can we believe them on?  It’s simple.  Why does Iran get a pass on what is normal?  It is so easy to prove—they can take their own film crew underground and interview him, let him read a speech.  See “Iran new Supreme Leader in good health, foreign ministry says,” Iran International, April 2, 2026.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei Mojtaba is unharmed following US-Israeli airstrikes, the foreign ministry said, adding that not appearing in public is not unusual under wartime conditions. The son of the late Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a strike at the onset of the war, is “completely healthy,” according to spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.”

“We can just keep working through a list of targets of ever decreasing significance and continue to piss them off to the point that the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] has a solid lock on the government and they feel justified in waging a holy war against the U.S. in perpetuity,” one of the defense officials said. “In no circumstance can Trump just walk away. He’ll be humiliated if he leaves; and we’ll be in a quagmire if he stays.”  Quote from “Officials warn US is running out of targets to strike in Iran,” Politico, 4-2-26. “The problem is there are few military sites accessible now without a ground invasion, said the former Trump official, who like others interviewed, was granted anonymity to discuss highly sensitive war planning. Tehran’s remaining ballistic missile stockpiles “are getting harder and harder to hit, because the ones that remain are likely in hardened bunkers,” the person said. “Otherwise they would’ve been taken out already.” Tehran’s strategy of trying to wait out American forces is paying some dividends, driving energy prices higher and ratcheting up the political pressure on the Trump administration to resolve the conflict and avoid the wrath of angry voters. The first official worried that Trump would stumble into a strategy similar to Israel’s campaign of ongoing episodic military strikes to keep its Middle East adversaries in check, known as “cutting the grass.” But that could leave the U.S. stuck taking potshots at Iran with little effect — and leaving Tehran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes.”

“About half of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers remain intact – report,” i24, 4-2-26.  “According to CNN, US intelligence assessments indicate thousands of UAVs remain in the hands of the Iranian regime, including “missile cities” that remain buried under rubble from attacks.”

Great article.  Remember what I said, to remember Pres. Jefferson.  “Control Over Strait of Hormuz Will Determine Who Wins the War,” WSJ, 4-2-26.  “Ending the war in the near future while Iran still controls the crucial waterway would be a geopolitical disaster for America’s allies and partners in the Middle East and beyond, said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former national-security official in Bahrain. “Iran would be able to enforce selective sanctions on whomever it wants and whenever it wants, and essentially hold the flow of shipping through the strait at risk if it desires to do so,” Alhasan said. “This would ensure indefinite Iranian leverage over the Gulf states’ economies and over global energy security, and it would leave Iran in a state in which it is still capable of posing a threat, wounded, embittered, and in a hostile posture vis-à-vis most countries in the region.” … Gulf Cooperation Council states such as the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia possess significant naval and air forces of their own. But they, too, would be unlikely to fight Iran for the strait absent a major American intervention, diplomats and officials say. Still—together with other regional parties, such as Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, and the blessing of much of the international community—these Gulf states could apply significant political and economic pressure on the Iranian regime to reopen the waterway for free passage. Even Russia, Iran’s closest ally, said this week that any arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz must be agreed by all the other littoral states of the Gulf. Iran trying to enforce its control over the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities end would be akin to piracy, said Mehran Haghirian, director of research at the Bourse & Bazaar think tank. “It would just lead to a complete isolation of the Islamic Republic beyond what it is right now. And in what world would the GCC states just sit back and allow their lifeline to be controlled by Iran?” he said. “The tension would be not just with the GCC states but with the entire international community, from Indonesia to Burkina Faso to Colombia, that all depend in one way or another on the Strait of Hormuz.” There is another, more practical, difficulty: Currently, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is considered a terrorist organization by many states, including the U.S. and members of the European Union. Financial transactions with Iran, including paying for the passage of Hormuz, are subject to U.S. sanctions that would deter major global shipping companies. “In this bizarre era of maritime protection money, shipowners will risk their ship if they don’t pay Iran—but if they pay Iran, they risk their future in the global financial system,” said Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at the City University of London. “What the Iranians are asking for is not just a transit fee but a loyalty test. It’s a test that no commercial entity can hope to pass.”

“Iran Beefs Up Defenses, Recruits Children as It Prepares for Ground War,” WSJ, 4-2-26.

Iran continues to be a revolutionary state, not a normal country.  Even the supposed alive ayatollah (no April Fools joke) says so.  “Letter attributed to Khamenei posted on Telegram pledges support for Hezbollah,” Iran International, 4-1-26.  “A letter attributed to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was posted on his Telegram channel, pledging continued support for Hezbollah and its leadership. The letter, dated two days ago, praised “resistance and steadfastness” against the United States and Israel and said Iran’s policy “is based on continuing support for the resistance.” It also expressed confidence in Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, saying he could “defeat the plans of the Zionist enemy” and restore “peace and pride” to Lebanon.”

“The Third Islamic Republic:  A War’s Unintended Consequences—for Iran, the Middle East, and the Global Order,” Foreign Affairs, 4-1-26.  Suzanne Maloney is an experienced hand in two administrations and good thinker.  Her proposal that the current fighting will result in a Third Islamic Republic, though, I will disagree with.  Here’s why.  Yes, the IRGC is asserting itself at the expense of the religious class and the bureaucracy.  But that was happening anyway.  The real reason is that she aligns the three republics with the three ayatollahs—and we have no proof yet that there is a third ayatollah.  In fact, the media of the world, and the countries of the world, should really demand that they won’t deal with Iran unless they know who they are dealing with.  And see for support of the argument that not much will change, “Khameneism after Khamenei- why Mojtaba represents continuity, not change,” Iran International, 3-31-26.

“Iran’s President Suggests Diplomatic Engagement Possible in Letter to U.S. Public,” NYT, 4-1-26.

“5 Takeaways From Trump’s Address on Iran,” 4-1-26.

“35 nations to meet to discuss Hormuz reopening,” SeaTrade Maritime, 4-1-26.

Another great article from WSJ, this one in essence introducing international law into the equation of what to do with Iran’s claimed islands in the Gulf.  Remember, international law (and ownership) can change during war.  Iran is also already claiming territory it does not have historical right to (talk to the UAE) and has acted in ways that the international community should not observe those claims.  IL wins again!  IL is made by sovereign states acting in their self interest.  See “The Islands That Give Iran a Stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz,” WSJ, 4-1-26.

He has the long-range picture in mind.  “The Axios Show”: Jamie Dimon defends Iran war as overdue,” Axios, 4-1-26.

“Rubio says US will keep Strait of Hormuz open,” Iran International, 3-31-26.  “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States will ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open and warned NATO may need to be re-examined after some allies denied airspace and basing access.  “The Strait of Hormuz will be open. When this operation is over, it will be open, and it’ll be open one way or another,” Rubio said in an interview with Al Jazeera. “It will be open because Iran agrees to abide by international law… Or a coalition of nations… will make sure that it’s open. One way or the other, it’s going to be open,” he added. .. He also criticized NATO allies over restrictions on US operations, saying, “We have countries like Spain… denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it.” “If NATO is just about us defending Europe… but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement,” he said, adding the alliance “is going to have to be re-examined.”

This is plain wrong.  First Spain, then France, the Italy, refusing different types of landing or flyovers.  And also refusing to face up to the pirates holding Hormuz.  Maybe this is why it took 47 years (since 1979) without a country truly standing up to the Ayatollahs.  See “Trump criticizes France over blocking flights to Israel,” and “Italy denies landing permission for US military aircraft – Reuters,” Iran International, 3-31-26.

A problem long in the making, and should be quickly undone if UAE willing.  “Dozens of IRGC-linked money changers arrested in UAE,” Iran International, 3-31-26.

“Over 4,700 security forces killed in US-Israeli strikes on Iran,” Iran International, 3-31-26.  “At least 4,770 members of the IRGC, Basij, and police have been killed since the start of the war in attacks by Israel and the United States, Iran International has learned. The sources said 20,880 others have also been injured.”

The NYT (and David Sanger) needs to be careful how it handles this story, after years of coverage saying there is no nuclear weapons program or that the Supreme Leader had issued a fatwa against such.  But never showing us the fatwa.  “Trump Says He Halted Nuclear Threat From Iran, Despite Evidence to the Contrary,” NYT, 3-31-26.  “President Trump declared on Tuesday that he had already achieved one of the primary objectives of his attack on Iran, the elimination of its ability to build a nuclear weapon. But there is no evidence that the United States or Israel has removed or destroyed the country’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade fuel. … Dropping the elimination of the nuclear program from the administration’s list of strategic goals, or declaring the problem solved when Iran retains control over its nuclear fuel, now poses a factual, political and rhetorical challenge. Unless something changes over the next two weeks — the target Mr. Trump set to begin withdrawing from the conflict — he will have left the Iranians with 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough for 10 to a dozen bombs. The country will retain control over an even larger inventory of medium-enriched uranium that, with further enrichment, could be turned into bomb fuel, if the Iranians can rebuild that capacity after a month of steady bombing. Just a few weeks ago, the administration was actively debating sending in Special Operations forces to seize the material, stored in 30 to 50 canisters. But the operation would be among the riskiest of commando raids. Isfahan is hundreds of miles inland, and presumed to be guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or I.R.G.C., which runs Iran’s covert nuclear efforts. … And, if real negotiations begin, the United States may convince Iran to give up the material. That is what happened in 2015, when the Obama administration negotiated a deal in which Iran shipped about 97 percent of its nuclear stockpile to Russia. That left the country with so little material that intelligence estimates concluded Iran would require at least a year to make the fuel for a weapon, and months or years longer for the device itself. Mr. Trump exited that accord in 2018, calling it one of the worst in history. But if he leaves Iran without getting the uranium out of the country, he will open himself to the criticism that he accomplished less than Mr. Obama did.”  So I’ll ask the NYT what I said in the op-eds I wrote a decade ago—Why would the U.S. agree to a document allowing Iran to eventually have the nuclear material they needed, just by waiting the requisite number of years?  We weren’t just kicking the can down the road, we were empowering proliferation.  For a state that couldn’t be trusted with it.

We are dealing with Iran.  “Iran does not seem to recognize the distinction being made by Mr. Starmer.  [offensive v. defensive strikes]  The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on social media recently that Mr. Starmer was “putting British lives in danger by allowing U.K. bases to be used for aggression against Iran” and his country would “exercise its right to self-defense.”  Ah, Iran can use self defense, the UK can’t.  See “How Britain’s Leader Decides Which U.S. Bombers to Let Fly Against Iran,” NYT, 3-31-26.

““Get used to the new order in the region,” IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani said in a post on X on Monday. He said that attacks by Iran-aligned groups had undermined what he described as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to expand a regional security belt, warning that a new regional order was emerging. “Netanyahu dreamed of expanding a security belt in the region, but the smart and courageous fire of our brothers in Hezbollah in the north and Ansar Allah in the south exposed the regime’s false assurances,” he wrote. “The dream of the martyred commanders of the resistance has been realized: the war room of the axis of resistance is one.””  See “World must get used to new Mideast order, IRGC-QF chief says,” Iran International, 3-30-26.  The U.S. and Israel have been hunting for Qaani.

“Rubio says ‘people of Iran are incredible’ but leadership is the problem,” Iran International, 3-30-26.  “US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States distinguishes between the Iranian people and their leadership, and expressed hope for change, while warning Washington was prepared if that does not happen.  …  Rubio said the US was engaged in indirect contacts with Iranian figures through intermediaries and was testing whether they could deliver change.  …  Rubio said Iran would not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz, calling such a move unacceptable.”

Notice the end of the article.  Spain apparently has a pay-off, or has not forsworn it.  And this payment of free passage would really be surprising for Spain to accept because it sits at the Gibraltar Strait and remembers the demands of the Barbary Pirates.  Here is the end of the article—“ … the Iranian embassy in Spain said Tehran would be receptive to requests from Madrid concerning transit through the Strait of Hormuz because Spain was “committed to international law”.  See “Spain closes airspace to US aircraft involved in Iran war,” BBC, 3-30-26.

“Turkey says NATO defences down missile from Iran,” Reuters, 3-30-26.  “There was no immediate comment from Tehran which has denied specifically targeting its neighbour Turkey ⁠during the conflict and has said it was not involved in the previous three missile launches, which were all downed by NATO defences.”  Do we believe the reports from Turkey and NATO or from Iran?  Remember, there are radars, visuals, and debris.  Because of such, Reuters should follow up and report which side is accurate.  (the NYT certainly has done the same with the school in southern Iran hit by most likely a new type of U.S. missile).

“How Russia and China are winning the war in Iran,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, 3-30-26.

“How the US could try to seize Iran’s Kharg Island,” BBC, 3-30-26.

“He Helped Stop Iran from Getting the Bomb,” New Yorker, 3-30-26.  “A former C.I.A. officer says that he recruited scientists as part of the United States’ effort to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.”

“Trump’s Iran war is at a fateful fork in the road,” CNN, 3-30-26.  There is something that CNN and I agree with, in the middle of this article—the statement “the revolutionary regime that has haunted both countries for decades.”

This is so rare in international diplomacy.  But it’s Iran, and the Regime is desperate to hold onto Lebanon and Hezbollah, its crown jewel of terror proxies.  “Iran refuses to recall ambassador from Lebanon after expulsion order,” i24NEWS, 3-30-26.  “Lebanese authorities declared the envoy persona non grata and ordered him to leave. Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry had ordered the expulsion of Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani last week, giving him until March 29, 2026, to leave the country after formally revoking its acceptance of his appointment.  [Sheibani is most likely a member of the Quds Force].  The deadline passed without the ambassador’s departure, prompting criticism from Israeli officials, including Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who accused Lebanon of failing to enforce its decision and described the situation as evidence of Iranian influence in the country.”

“Iran War Live Updates: Trump Says Iran to Allow More Oil Ships Through Strait of Hormuz,” NYT, 3-30-26.

“Iran’s military industry in Tehran hit in fresh wave of strikes,” i24, 3-30-26.

Let’s start with two stories about the Kurds.  “The Kurdish Ground Force Preparing to Fight in Iran,” Atlantic, 3-29-26.

Did Iran just violate Iraq territory and try to kill the Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani?  Yes.  “Turkey’s Foreign Minister Condemns Drone Attack on President Nechirvan Barzani Residence,” Kurdistan24, 3-29-26.

“Middle East leaders huddle in Pakistan as Trump weighs ground operations in Iran,” CNBC, 3-29-26.

Sorry A&M and NYU.  “Iran threatens US campuses in Middle East,” Politico, 3-29-26.

“Iran warns U.S. against ground invasion, as Pakistan holds diplomatic talks,” NPR, 3-29-26.

Here’s a story about another Arab state that has been constantly under the gun from the Regime.  Actually for years.  “Army Says Iran Targeted Jordan With Missile, 2 Drones in past 24 hours,” Petra News, 3-29-26.

“How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war,” Economist, 3-29-26.

See “Photos show heavily damaged US radar jet at Saudi base,” BBC, 3-29-26.  “Iran’s IRGC-linked Fars news agency said a Shahed drone had struck the E-3 aircraft.”  This strike against the AWACS jet and multiple KC-135 tankers may represent the largest attack by Russia against U.S. planes in years.  I say Russia, not just Iran, because Russia is providing the satellite targeting and a green light.

“Pentagon reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran,” Military Times, 3-29-26.

“Iran Update Special Report, March 29, 2026,” ISW, 3-29-26.  Two notes.  First, “Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials continue to dismiss Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s concerns about Iran’s economic conditions amid Iran’s war with the United States and Israel. Anti-regime media reported on March 28 that there is a deepening rift between Pezeshkian and IRGC Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi over the regime’s actions during the war and the war’s mounting economic and social costs, citing unspecified informed sources.”  Second, “The Iranian regime appears to be appealing to nationalist sentiments to recruit members of the Iranian population to help the regime maintain internal security. The Wall Street Journal reported on March 29 that Iran has launched a recruitment campaign called “Janfada,” or “Sacrificing Life,” to recruit volunteers to fight US forces in the event of a US ground operation in Iran, citing a text message sent to Iranian mobile users.”

“Middle East realignment: Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are reshaping US-Iran relations – opinion,” JPost, 3-29-26.

This is the type of information that is not typically available on open sources.  https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-march-29-2026/“Analysis: Iran likely transferred highly enriched uranium to Isfahan before the June strikes,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 3-29-26.  “Le Monde has analyzed a previously unreported satellite image of the Iranian nuclear site at Isfahan, showing a large truck loaded with containers. … But the timing of the image, the type of load, and other indirect evidence suggest that Iran may have placed a significant quantity of highly enriched uranium—possibly all of its inventory—at the facility ahead of the June 2025 strikes by Israel and the United States against Iranian nuclear sites.”

The headline starts with “Iran” but should really read “Russia.”  See “Iran strike on Saudi Arabia’s Sultan Airbase destroys key US Air Force platforms,” JPost, 3-29-26.  At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.  “[D]amaged multiple aircraft and likely completely destroyed an E-3 Sentry aircraft. The attack some 60 miles south of the capital of Riyadh in the early hours of March 27 is said to have involved a coordinated precision barrage of at least one Iranian ballistic missile and several attack drones. According to reports, some 10 to 12 American service members were injured in the attack, with at least two in serious condition. The base, a major operating location for US Air Force platforms during the war, has been attacked several times since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury/Operation Roaring Lion. Earlier in the week, 14 others were wounded in an attack, and another missile strike on the base on March 1 killed one service member.  …  The loss of an E-3 Sentry AWACS carries strategic consequences far beyond the physical destruction of a single airframe, as it degrades the ability to detect incoming hostile threats and coordinate any retaliatory response.  …  Its radar provides 360-degree surveillance across a 250-mile radius, allowing it to detect aircraft, drones, and missile launches while simultaneously coordinating friendly forces.  ..  The US Air Force had around 30 E-3 Sentry aircraft, with Boeing having delivered the last one in 1992. But as the platform struggles to maintain readiness, the USAF has cut the fleet almost in half to 16 aircraft. Of those, six were sent to the Middle East ahead of the war. While the platform is nearing the end of its lifetime, it continues to serve as an airborne command post, linking fighters, bombers, and ground commanders into a unified operational picture throughout the region during the war. Operation Epic Fury has involved thousands of US and Israeli sorties across Iran and the wider region. Managing such a vast air campaign requires persistent airborne command and control, and the E-3 Sentry has been central to that effort. Its ability to track threats, direct aircraft, and maintain situational awareness makes it the backbone of coordinated air operations.  …  Iran is said to be receiving external intelligence support from allies like China and Russia for advanced surveillance capabilities to target key installations across the Gulf. The attack’s accuracy suggests that Iran had access to timely, high-quality intelligence about aircraft positions and operational patterns at Prince Sultan Air Base, which also houses F-15E Strike Eagles, F-35A Lightnings, F-16 Fighting Falcons, and more.”

This is not a blog about SArabia.  But the below story highlights how dangerous SA thinks Iran is.  “Iran War Draws Attention to U.S. Troop Presence in Saudi Arabia,” NYT, 3-29-26.

“The Iran war has given Trump his best hand against China — now he shouldn’t fold,” LWJ, 3-29-26.

Russian targeting of U.S. planes continues.  This has to stop.  I would imagine that Russian’s Yelabuga drone factory in Tatarstan is now being discussed in the Administration, green lighting Ukraine.  “Iranian missile, drones strike US military airbase in Saudi Arabia, 12 soldiers wounded – report,” JPost, 3-28-26.  The NYT story on this states “The combined missile and drone attack amounted to one of the most serious breaches of American air defenses in the course of the monthlong war with Iran. At least two KC-135 aerial refueling planes also suffered significant damage in the attack.”  “Strike on U.S. Base in Saudi Arabia Injures 12 American Troops, 2 Seriously, Officials Say,” NYT, 3-27-26.

But note this next story in light of what you’ve just read.  “European allies say Russia is helping Iran more than the U.S. has acknowledged, sources say,” CBS, 3-28-26.

“Iran warns neighbours not to let ‘enemies run the war’ from their land,” Al Jazeera, 3-28-26.  Is this warning solely from Iran, or is it also from Russia?

More missiles in the mix, more interceptors needed.  “Iran-backed Houthis join war with attack against Israel,” BBC, 3-28-26.

“Russia took satellite images of U.S. air base in days before Iranian attack, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says,” NBC, 3-28-26.  These are before and after images, relayed to the Iranians.

What will the UN say?  “Iran’s Water Weapon Against the Gulf,” Project Syndicate, 3-28-26.

“Saudi pipeline to bypass Hormuz hits 7 million barrel goal,” Fortune, Bloomberg, 3-28-26.