“Islamic Republic deploys armed supporters in street rallies,” Iran International, 3-27-26.

Taking away an international strait into the sovereign power of a coastal state is illegal under international law.  It does not matter that Iran has not ratified UNCLOS (nor has the U.S. or Israel).  Nor is Iran’s action legitimate under any doctrine of self defense.  “Iranian Foreign Minister defends Hormuz Strait curb,” MEE, 3-27-26.  The United States and Israel are correct that the right of innocent passage is part of customary international law.  This present-day ability of all nations to move through cargo, oil, etc. through Hormuz was established via the 1949 Corfu Channel judgment of the World Court.  Stop and think about it.  If Iran prevails, there are so many other international waterways where “might will make right” and toll fees will apply.  Here are some:  Strait of Malacca, Sunda, Yucatan, Bab-el-Mandeb, Gibraltar, Mozambique, North Channel, Bering, Bosporous, Dover, Taiwan, Magellan, Lombok.

Good for UAE.  It is time to put the Barbary Pirates down (see earlier post about President Jefferson).  “UAE backs multinational naval force to reopen Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 3-27-26.  “Abu Dhabi tells the US that it will take part in the coalition plan as shipping disruption fuels global energy concerns.  … Abu Dhabi is prepared to deploy its navy as part of the effort. … Officials said the UAE is also working with Bahrain on a United Nations Security Council resolution to provide a mandate for any future force, although opposition from Russia and China is possible. The initiative aims to create what has been described as a “Hormuz Security Force” to escort vessels and ensure safe passage. There is growing recognition among Gulf states and in Washington that reopening the strait may require coordinated naval escorts. … Senior Emirati minister Sultan al-Jaber underscored the broader economic impact of the disruption, saying, “Iran holds Hormuz hostage; every nation pays the ransom, at the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy.””

Quote of the Day.  “There was a couple of leaders in Europe who said that this was not Europe’s war,” Mr. Rubio said. “Well, Ukraine is not America’s war, and yet we’ve contributed more to that fight than any other country in the world.”  Sec. of State Marco Rubio.  See “Rubio Expected to Press Allies Over Strait of Hormuz at G7 Meeting,” NYT, 3-27-26.

The (apparent) farce continues.  Ah, but let’s see if Ghalibaf says this.  I bet a dozen doughnuts he says no such thing.  “Ghalibaf acts only with Khamenei Jr approval, insider tells regime supporters,” Iran International, 3-27-26.

“Enriched uranium hidden deep in Iranian mountains could be key to ending war,” ABC Australia, 3-27-26.

“The latest on Iran’s military attacks on Gulf states,” NBC, 3-27-26.

In the Middle East, there is an old saying that everything is connected to everything.  And here we see a connection between two wars, and dark vs. light.  “Ukraine, Saudi Arabia sign defense deal as U.S. reportedly weighs redirecting Kyiv aid,” CNBC, 3-27-26.

“Ukraine announces ‘mutually beneficial’ defence deal with Saudi Arabia,” Al Jazeera, 3-27-26.

“US offers $10 million reward for information on Iranian cyber actors,” Iran International, 3-27-26.

“Iranian attack on Saudi base wounds at least 10 US troops and damages several planes,” AP, 3-27-26.

This is impressive reporting.  Israel usually wouldn’t admit this.  “Israel Is Rationing Its Best Interceptors—and Iran’s Missiles Are Getting Through,” WSJ, 3-27-26.  It costs more to defend than to attack.  “The decision to use less-capable munitions reflects the pressure militaries across the region are under as they burn through expensive, difficult-to-manufacture weapons to fend off attacks from Iran’s mass-produced missiles and drones. The U.S. and Israel have knocked out much of Iran’s capability to fire missiles but not all of it, turning the war in part into a race to see which side runs out first. “The number of interceptors of every type is finite,” said Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the U.S.-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. “As the fighting goes on, it goes down. And as it goes down, you have to make more careful calculations about what to use.” Iran has fired more than 400 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel since the start of the war. While the numbers were higher in the early days, the barrages have remained relatively steady in recent weeks, with the additional challenge of Hezbollah firing dozens of projectiles at Israel every day. With every incoming missile, officials must decide whether to let it fall in unoccupied areas or shoot it down, and if so with what system. They also have to consider preserving stockpiles to cover the range of threats that could arise in the days ahead. Israel’s multilayered air-defense system, much of which it developed alongside the U.S., uses different munitions designed to confront different types of threats. On the lower tier is the Iron Dome, which is used to shoot down short-range rockets at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars per interceptor, followed by David’s Sling, which can be used against long-range rockets, tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. At the upper tier is the Arrow 3, which intercepts long-range ballistic missiles that leave the Earth’s atmosphere and is among the best antimissile munitions in the world. An earlier version known as Arrow 2 is still used for medium to long-range missile threats. Israel entered the current conflict with stocks of its Arrow interceptors diminished by the war in June.  …  Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain are under similar pressure and have been asking the U.S. for interceptors. To help address the capacity concerns, the U.S. has flooded the region with counterdrone systems, which can shoot down lower and slower-flying threats like Iran’s Shaheds.”

“What is Iran demanding in order to end the war?,” BBC, 3-26-26.  “Iran’s state broadcaster Press TV has quoted a “senior political-security official” as saying that Iran has rejected a US proposal aimed at ending the current war. “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met,” the official reportedly told the broadcaster. They outlined five conditions to Press TV that would need to be met in order to end the war: A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic. Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations. The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region. International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran’s sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials have repeatedly said they want a complete end to the war, and not just a ceasefire.”

This is Barbary Coast-style pirate blackmail to sail through an international strait.  “Iran MP says Hormuz fee proposal to be reviewed next week,” Iran International, 3-26-26.  “A draft proposal to let Iran collect transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz has been prepared and would be sent to parliament’s research center next week for legal review, an Iranian lawmaker said on Thursday.  Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi said he had prepared the draft jointly with Tehran lawmaker Somayyeh Rafiei and that they planned to finalize it with a legal team.”

“Israel dropped two Iran officials from hit list on Pakistan request – Reuters,” Iran International, 3-26-26.  Israel removed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf from its hit list after Pakistan asked Washington not to target them, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing a Pakistani official. “The Israelis had their … coordinates and wanted to take them out, we told the US if they are also eliminated then there is no one else to talk to, hence the US asked the Israelis to back off,” the official said.”  So, Araghchi and Ghalibaf have a Get Out of Jail Free card and automatically become the most powerful people in Iran.

I don’t know yet if he is still alive.  “Iran Guards navy commander Tangsiri targeted in Bandar Abbas – Israeli media,” Iran International, 3-26-26.  “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy commander Alireza Tangsiri was targeted in Bandar Abbas, Israeli media reported, citing an official. The official said Tangsiri was responsible for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Israel Says It Killed IRGC Navy Commander Responsible for Blocking Strait,” WSJ, 3-26-26.  Was he following orders or acting on his own initiative?  Either way, or both, he was blocking a strait protected by international law treaty (UNCLOS, Art. 19, “innocent passage”) and international law custom (which Iran had pledged to uphold).  And either way or both, he made he wrong call.  Let us remember that everywhere any of these Iran commanders can surrender, resign, flee and ask for asylum, there are many alternatives.  See also “Israel kills Alireza Tangsiri, IRGC Navy chief ‘behind blocking of Strait of Hormuz’,” JPost, 3-26-26.

“Generation Jihad | The Hormuz Shake(down),” FDD Long War Journal, 3-26-26.  “Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. It’s not. Ships are still moving. Oil is still flowing. Just not for everyone. Friends pass. Also anyone with millions of dollars to spare. Enemies don’t. This isn’t a blockade. It’s a shakedown.”  This interview also makes the point I’ve made, there is no sense in the U.S. Navy letting Iranian tankers pass through the strait.  Just seize them and hold them off of Oman and use them in the negotiating process.

“Trump’s Iran strategy is to pursue two off-ramps at once,” BBC, 3-26-26.

“Trump Extends Deadline for 10 Days as Peace Talks Persist,” Truth Social, 3-26-26.

“Iran moves to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz – report,” i24, 3-26-26.

Yes.  Do not seize Kharg.  Simply embargo Iran’s tankers which leave Hormuz.  “Analysis: Why seizing Iran’s Kharg Island could be a trap of America’s own making,” FDD Long War Journal, 3-26-26.

“Iran’s Long Game:  Decades of Preparation Are Paying Off,” Foreign Affairs, 3-26-26.

“Iran, Hezbollah continue launching salvos towards Israel | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-26-26.

“Why these 6 Iranian islands could be crucial to Trump’s “final blow” of the war,” Axios, 3-26-26.

“Generation Jihad | The Hormuz Shake(down),” FDD Long War Journal, 3-26-26.  “Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed. It’s not. Ships are still moving. Oil is still flowing. Just not for everyone. Friends pass. Also anyone with millions of dollars to spare. Enemies don’t. This isn’t a blockade. It’s a shakedown.”

“Iran’s former diplomats warn of prolonged regional war,” Iran International, 3-26-26.

“Rubio: Iran at ‘weakest point’ yet still attacking embassies and hotels,” Iran International, 3-26-26.

“Iranian military says US is ‘negotiating with itself’ after Trump says Tehran wants deal ‘so badly’,” BBC, 3-25-26.

“US deploys troops to Middle East while pursuing Iran talks on Thursday,” i24, 3-25-26.

There may not be recorded/documented evidence.  “Judge Orders Records Search After Trump Ties Cole Attack to Iran,” NYT, 3-25-26.  “The bombing of the ship by Al Qaeda killed 17 U.S. sailors in 2000. President Trump has said Iran was “probably involved.”  But we don’t know for sure.  Until then, there are other known ties between AQ and Iran such as harboring.

No ransom required for this tanker, but what about the others?  Remember, if one thing is ingrained in the Regime, it is taking people and ships (and now oil) hostage.  “Thai tanker passes Hormuz safely after coordination with Iran,” Iran International, 3-25-26.  “A Thai oil tanker has safely transited the Strait of Hormuz after coordination with Iran, a Thai official and the vessel’s owner said. “They responded that they would take care of it,” Thailand’s foreign minister said after requesting safe passage for Thai ships. The tanker was not required to make any payment and is now on its way back to Thailand.”  I suggest that someone close to Pres. Trump remind him of what Pres. Jefferson did with the Barbary Pirates, the first U.S. war after Independence.  The Ottoman Empire and its four pirate deys along the northern coast of Africa held 20% of the new U.S. country’s budget paid to ransom for our ships to pass through Gibraltar and trade in the Mediterranean.  What did the Navy and Marines do?  That’s right.  The other part of that story which is often not realized is that the countries of Europe, all paid the annual tribute payments for many years and were too afraid to fight.  Many ships were taken and thousands of persons were taken into slavery or killed over the years.  Thank you Pres. Jefferson.

“In Iran War, Cheap Drones Remain Wild Card,” NYT, 3-25-26.  “Iran was still able to launch 70 to 90 drones per day. That was down from more than 400 drones launched on March 1. … Many are intercepted. The Saudi Defense Ministry said on Saturday that it had shot down dozens of drones overnight, while sirens warned of another incoming attack in Bahrain. The United Arab Emirates’ Defense Ministry said it intercepted three more ballistic missiles and eight drones on Saturday. … Estimates of how many Shaheds Iran had at the start of the war vary widely — from thousands to tens of thousands.  …  There are many different models of the drone known as the Shahed, but the most commonly used is the delta wing Shahed-136, which is in many ways a slow, rudimentary cruise missile. Just over 8 feet wide and around 12 feet long, with a top speed of 115 miles per hour, it launches from a rail-based rack off the back of a military or commercial-grade truck. Once in the air, the Shahed has a range of up to 1,500 miles and uses GPS to find the target for its 90-pound warhead. All at an estimated cost of $35,000 per drone. To combat the threat posed by the Shaheds, Gulf States are firing interceptors that cost millions apiece and scrambling fighter jets that must slow down almost to stall speed to deal with the puttering low-tech machines. They also have Apache attack helicopters machine-gunning them out of the sky. Even if Iran’s ability to manufacture drones were to be severely degraded, it may be able to count on assistance from Russia. Gordon B. Davis, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis who served as a deputy assistant secretary general for NATO’s Defense Investment Division after retiring from the U.S. Army as a major general, said in a briefing on Thursday that Russia was working to produce as many as 1,000 drones a day. Iran is not trying to defeat the United States in any traditional sense, Mr. Davis said, adding, “Iran has adapted quickly, targeting air defenses, radars and command-and-control nodes rather than simply trying to compete symmetrically.””

Yes, Ghalibaf is a likely suspect to be speaking for Iran.  Also the FM, Araghchi.  Not the president though.  “Ghalibaf warns US over troop deployments in region,” Iran International, 3-25-26.

“Pakistan passes US proposal to Iran as fighting continues,” Iran International, 3-25-26.  “Two Pakistani officials said separately that Iran had received a 15-point US ceasefire proposal covering issues including sanctions relief, nuclear limits and access through the Strait of Hormuz, the Associated Press reported, though Iran has denied holding negotiations with Washington.”

“Trump’s ‘absurdly incoherent’ Iran pleas leave allies befuddled,” Politico, 3-25-26.  “In practice, Europe could deploy destroyers to help Washington escort convoys through the strait, said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow and naval military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, since the U.S. only has around 25 of the heavily-armed, missile-capable type of vessel available to immediately deploy worldwide. Europe could also supply counter-mining capabilities, he argued, one area where the U.S. is  “quite constrained.” Germany, Estonia, France, Romania, Belgium, Bulgaria, the Netherlands and the U.K. together operate roughly 40 counter-mine vessels, he said, compared to America’s four.”

We don’t want this to become a regional war.  Russia does.  Iran does.  “Moscow finalizing drone and aid assistance to Iran – report,” i24, 3-25-26.  “Deliveries of humanitarian aid and drones reportedly began in early March and are expected to be finalized by month’s end as Moscow moves to support Tehran.” … If verified, the move would be the first known case of Russia providing direct lethal aid to Iran during the current conflict. Officials cited in the report say Moscow has already been assisting Tehran behind the scenes with intelligence sharing, including satellite imagery and targeting data.”  The Gulf states are going to remember they have been getting slammed by drones made not only in Iran but in Russia.

So who else besides Ghalibaf and Araghchi is speaking for Iran?  Leave it up to Iran International to tell us.  And guess what, as some of us have predicted, it appears the IRGC now rules Iran.  ***I suppose this is the moment Iran is no longer a theocracy but officially a military-led regime because Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr is the new head of the Supreme National Security Council.  I do, though, have the question if Zolghadr has asked the Pakistanis to ask Israel and the U.S. to protect his life, as they have accomplished (for the moment) for G and A.  Which would be an embarrassment for a military leader to take such action.  See “Zolghadr, the IRGC insider at the heart of Iran’s power structure,” Iran International, 3-25-26.  Hmm.  We will have to change the name from the “Islamic Republic of Iran” (it was never a republic) to the “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran.”  To mark this moment, I have pasted the entire I.I. article.  “A foundational figure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr’s rise signals not a shift, but a moment of clarity — the same hardline system, now accelerating and more visible than ever.  The longtime hardliner is the new chief of the Supreme National Security Council to replace his slain predecessor Ali Larijani, state television said Tuesday.  Zolghadr is not a new figure emerging in a moment of crisis, but a product of the Islamic Republic’s original revolutionary security networks. A man whose career spans armed militancy, senior command within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and influential roles across Iran’s political and judicial institutions.  “He is one of the last remnants of the radical revolutionaries that armed themselves against the Pahlavi monarchy,” historian Shahram Kholdi told Iran International. A former deputy commander of the IRGC, Zolghadr belongs to the generation that helped transform the Guards into the backbone of the Islamic Republic not only as a military force, but as a political and economic power center. Over decades, the IRGC expanded its reach across the state, embedding itself in key institutions from the interior ministry to the judiciary. Kholdi traces Zolghadr back to the early networks that evolved into the Quds Force — the IRGC’s elite unit responsible for managing Iran’s proxy militias and projecting power across the Middle East placing him alongside the system later commanded by Qassem Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional strategy.  His appointment following the killing of Larijani underscores what many analysts see as an accelerating trend: the consolidation of power by hardline military figures. What has been a gradual shift over decades appears to have intensified amid the current conflict, with the Guards tightening their grip over both national security and political decision-making. The Quds Force, the IRGC’s external arm, has been at the center of Iran’s regional power projection, training and directing militias from Iraq to Syria, where it helped sustain Bashar al-Assad’s war in a conflict marked by widespread civilian suffering.  “He is part of the three to four thousand families that have been forming the power core of the Islamic Republic,” Kholdi said. Zolghadr’s rise does not mark a departure from that system, but a continuation of it, reflecting the enduring dominance of a tightly knit network of insiders drawn from the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary and security institutions. His role in internal repression also stretches back decades. During the 1999 student protests — a pivotal moment in the regime’s violent suppression of dissent— Zolghadr was among a group of senior IRGC commanders who signed a sharply worded letter to then-reformist President Mohammad Khatami. The message warned that if the government failed to decisively crush the unrest, the Guards would act on their own. The episode is widely seen as a turning point, marking a more overt willingness by the IRGC to intervene directly in politics and, for many Iranians, cementing the reform movement’s ultimate failure. His political trajectory has long aligned with Iran’s most hardline currents. He played a role in the rise of former hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and later acknowledged that conservative factions had carried out coordinated efforts to secure that victory. In office, he adopted a confrontational posture toward the United States, warning that Iran would respond to any attack with overwhelming missile strikes. During the Iran-Iraq War, he led units he fought in cross-border operations, which is experience that would help shape the regime’s enduring emphasis on asymmetrical warfare. According to Kholdi, Zolghadr was among those who helped design that doctrine alongside figures like Qassem Soleimani — building a decentralized system capable of operating even under sustained attack. “They created this asymmetrical hierarchy where units can act independently… and continue operating even if leadership is cut off,” Kholdi said. That system is now visible in Iran’s military posture, with dispersed missile and drone capabilities across the region. Kholdi also points to Zolghadr’s deep institutional knowledge as a key factor in his significance today. “The fact that he hasn’t been eliminated is bad news — he is one of the main people who knows a lot about how this system works,” he said, adding that Zolghadr likely has insight into sensitive areas including the country’s nuclear program. For ordinary Iranians, his rise is much the same as his predecessor Ali Larijani, who was eliminated in an Israeli airstrike overnight on March 16 in Tehran. “No, he is much the same,” Kholdi said when asked whether Zolghadr differs from figures like Larijani. His appointment underscores a consistent reality: power in the Islamic Republic remains concentrated within a small circle of entrenched insiders — many of whom have been at the center of the system since its earliest days.”

For speed’s sake, I am using initials of G and A and Z when looking at whose life is currently apparently protected.  Uh oh, this is not putting them in well with friends.  “Reports of Ghalibaf-Trump channel sparks political storm in Tehran,” Iran International, 3-25-26.

“Group behind European antisemitic attacks may be only a facade, warn experts,” AFP, 3-25-26.  “Targeting of Jewish sites in several cities raises concerns that Tehran may be behind newly-established, shadowy organization, already labeled ‘Iranian-backed proxy’ by Israel.”

Attacks against Jordan by Iran continue.  “Civil Defense responds to thousands of incidents across Jordan in 24 hours,” Roya News, 3-25-26.

“We punish those who no longer allow us to control them” seems to be the message.  See “Iran missile hits Lebanon after Tehran envoy expelled from Beirut,” Iran International, 3-25-26.

They are trying.  “50 arrested in northern Iran over alleged contacts with exile media – Tasnim,” Iran International, 3-25-26.  “Iranian authorities have arrested 50 people in the northern Mazandaran province for allegedly sending information about military and security sites to the Persian-language broadcasters Iran International and Manoto, IRGC- affiliated Tasnim news agency reported on Wednesday. The arrests were made by the police intelligence organization in the province since the start of the war. The report said the suspects were identified through surveillance and technical intelligence measures. It also said arrests were being carried out across the country, including in villages and remote areas, and warned that those detained would face severe punishment.”

“Iran launches missile attack toward Israel for 7th time in three hours | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-25-26.

“The Narrow Path to a U.S.‑Iran Deal,” WSJ, 3-25-26.

Considering the control by Iran in southern Lebanon since the early 1980s and its later heavy influence in the national legislature and in Beirut, this is a really important story in Lebanon’s future and the possible disarmament of Hezbollah.  In short, the Supreme Leader Nos. 1 and 2 (there apparently is not a No. 3 as MK is unable to communicate, and I won’t repeat opponent jokes about his not appearing until the Occultation) have violated Lebanon’s sovereignty for too long.  See “Beirut declares Iranian ambassador ‘persona non grata,’ calls for his departure,” i24, 3-24-26.

“Israel targeted Russia-Iran weapons supply line in Caspian Sea strike – report,” i-24, 3-24-26.  “Officials told The Wall Street Journal that the operation focused on disrupting shipments of ammunition and unmanned aerial systems, including Shahed drones.”  Israel sends a message to Russia and Ukraine about right and wrong.

You see this title and your head spins.  “Will Iran Turn to Terrorism?,” in Foreign Affairs, 3-24-26.  I thought that happened starting in 1979.  Somebody call FA.

“Trump administration offers 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran,” AP, 3-24-26.

Read this and let’s talk.  The understanding of int’l law and warfare and national interests is not understood by this reporter.  Nor do they identify how the Regime was going to be stopped, by somebody, anybody, before the U.S. and Israel, months and months ago, decided to step up.  The UN certainly was not addressing Iran.  See “Iran war shows norms of international conflicts have been overturned,” BBC, 3-24-26.

“Iran’s Missile Shots at Diego Garcia,” WSJ, 3-24-26.  This goes to the debate over “imminent” threat.  Please be aware that presidents know more than we.  So whether missile capabilities, nuclear enrichment amounts, use of proxies to attack, refusal to negotiate in good faith regarding the nuclear program, continued acceptance of missile aid from China, continued coordination with Russia of drone technology, etc., there was plenty to understand there has been and is an imminent threat from Iran.  Whether a president acts on it or not.  From the Journal, “The episode also is a reminder of the virtues of missile defense. U.S. systems like Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) and SM-3 have demonstrated their effectiveness, and now everybody wants more interceptors. It’s easy to forget that even shorter-range air defenses were conceived in controversy—derided by the American left as too expensive and provocative to enemies, as if America would somehow be safer if it remained defenseless.”

“Iran’s Missile Shots at Diego Garcia,” WSJ, 3-24-26.  This goes to the debate over “imminent” threat.  Please be aware that presidents know more than we.  So whether missile capabilities, nuclear enrichment amounts, use of proxies to attack, refusal to negotiate in good faith regarding the nuclear program, continued acceptance of missile aid from China, continued coordination with Russia of drone technology, etc., there was plenty to understand there has been and is an imminent threat from Iran.  Whether a president acts on it or not.  From the Journal, “The episode also is a reminder of the virtues of missile defense. U.S. systems like Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) and SM-3 have demonstrated their effectiveness, and now everybody wants more interceptors. It’s easy to forget that even shorter-range air defenses were conceived in controversy—derided by the American left as too expensive and provocative to enemies, as if America would somehow be safer if it remained defenseless.”

“Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls,” NYT, 3-24-26.  “Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sees a “historic opportunity” to remake the region, according to people briefed by U.S. officials on the conversations.”

“Iran to expand terror attempts against Israelis, Jews overseas for Passover, Israel warns | LIVE BLOG,” i24, 3-24-26.

“Hezbollah’s missile arsenal slashed after months of Israeli strikes – report,” i24, 3-24-26.

“A ‘Wannabe Strongman’ Rises in Iran as Trump Seeks a Dealmaker,” WSJ, 3-24-26.

“Republicans reject limits on Iran war, despite deepening conflict,” Politico, 3-24-26.

If you know “How to speak Trump,” you know that this headline is not absolute but part of the negotiating process.  It would also help the reporter to listen to all of Pres. Trump’s comments for context and clues.  The one thing we don’t know is who is the U.S. negotiating with, but we know that it is happening.  See “Trump: Strait of Hormuz Will Be Jointly Controlled By “Me And The Next Ayatollah, Whoever That Is”,” RCP, 3-23-26.

“Trump says strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure paused for 5 days amid US-Iran talks,” Politico, 3-23-26.

“Trump signals end to conflict after ‘strong talks’ with Iran, denied by Tehran,” i24, 3-23-26.

“Iran’s Top Diplomat Is the Face of a Defiant Regime,” WSJ, 3-23-26.

“U.S. negotiating with senior Iranian official:  Trump,” Axios, 3-23-26.  “Ghalibaf is a former general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps., a former mayor of Tehran and a close associate of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Ghalibaf played a key role in managing Iran’s war effort during the 12-day war in June and is currently seen as the most senior civilian official in Iran’s decision-making circle. It was Ghalibaf who responded to Trump’s threat to bomb power plants with a similar threat to strike energy facilities in the region.”

“Gulf States Edge Toward Joining Fight Against Iran,” WSJ, 3-23-26.

“The Back-Channel Diplomacy Behind Trump’s U-Turn on Iran,” WSJ, 3-23-26.

“Iran built a vast camera network to control dissent. Israel used it to track targets, AP sources say,” PBS, 3-23-26.  Good reporting.

Yes, Pres. Trump will seemingly say two different things, or change after stating something.  But he’s dealing with a fluid situation, and with persons who are doing the same thing.  Like three dimensional chess.
“Bessent: The Iran Regime Is In Chaos, It’s Hitler’s Bunker–Hitler Is Dead, Himmler Is Dead, Goering Is Dead,” RCP, 3-22-26.

“Iran threatens to ‘completely’ close Strait of Hormuz and hit power plants after Trump ultimatum,” Politico, 3-22-26.  See also “Iran war updates: Iran warns of hits on energy sites after Trump threat,” Al Jazeera, 3-22-26.

It does seem to be over for Pahlavi.  As several of us have thought, he should have clearly held himself as the option only until elections could be held.  “The Distant Promise of Iran’s Would-Be King,” New Yorker, 3-22-26.  This is how the article concludes.  “Pahlavi remains the most prominent figure among the various dissidents jockeying for a leadership role in a post-Islamic Republic Iran. But, despite his seemingly good intentions, the pounding of Iran’s cities, the bombing of its palaces and cultural heritage sites, the food and gas shortages, the toxic smoke-filled skies, the dead schoolchildren, and the buzz of low-flying drones overhead all risk transforming his image from the leader of a unified future to the agent of his country’s ruin. In the ancient kingship tradition, endangering the empire would cause a king to lose his farr. No monarch in two and a half millennia of Persian history has invited a foreign power to attack the land of Iran, and nowhere in the long literary tradition of royal counsel—known as andarznameh, or “mirror for princes”—has an exception been made for the cause of ending domestic tyranny. This is the current predicament of Pahlavi, whose royal charisma has never been more on the line.”

I believe this is the first time any country has attempted to attack Diego.    “Two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) were launched toward Diego Garcia, a strategically vital base used by both the United States and the United Kingdom. Officials said neither missile reached its target. One failed during flight, while a US naval vessel responded by firing an SM-3 interceptor at the second missile. It remains unclear whether that interceptor successfully destroyed the incoming threat.”  “Iran fires 2 ballistic missiles at US-UK base on Diego in first long-range strike attempt – report,” i24, 3-21-26.

“The Mojtaba mystery: CIA searches for signs of Iran’s new leader,” Axios, 3-21-26.

“IRGC aerospace chief faces internal criticism over battlefield absence,” Iran International, 3-21-26.

“Mojtaba Khamenei is likely controlled by IRGC, i24NEWS told,” i24, 3-21-26.  “The assessment in Jerusalem and DC is that Mojtaba is injured rather than deceased, and that he is functional.”

“A 19-year-old star wrestler and two other young men were hanged in Iran as regime continues with executions and crackdown on dissent during war,” Fortune, 3-21-26.

Iran successful in getting through Israel’s missile defenses and hitting Arad and Dimona.  “Iranian missiles sow panic in Israeli town,” Le Monde, 3-21-26.

“Iran fires missiles at remote U.K.-U.S. base, suggesting long-range capabilities it previously denied,” NBC, 3-21-26.  Uh oh.  “Diego Garcia is the same distance from Iran as much of central Europe.”  And Europe doesn’t for the most part have missile defense.

Some people might say Dead Man Walking, but I’ll say Dead Man Talking.  “Iranian message attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei accuses Israel of attacking Turkey, Oman to frame Tehran,” i24, 3-20-26.  “Iran’s new leader is yet to make a public appearance or even record a message in his own voice.”

This is an important step.  “Saudi Arabia agrees to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif to US for Iran operations,” Iran International, 3-20-26.

“Pro-Iran Ashab al-Kahf claims attack on US diplomatic facility in Iraq,” Iran International, 3-20-26.

“A Look at the Escalating Battle for the Strait of Hormuz,” NYT, 3-20-26.

“U.S. admin mulls land occupation of Kharg Island, i24NEWS told,” i24, 3-20-26.  “Occupying or besieging the island would cut Iran off from its primary source of oil revenue, depriving its already strained economy of vital income.”

“Israel: Top Iranian spokesperson killed,” The Hill, 3-20-26.  Not quite Baghdad Bob.

“Iranian missile strikes near Israeli nuclear facility, after Tehran says one of its sites targeted,” BBC, 3-20-26.  In the city of Dimona, not the nuclear facility, 47 hurt.

Read this story and then think.  Why else would they meet other than to preserve the nuclear weapons program?  If the uranium was simply for research or for electricity production, you would never see this sort of meeting under these circumstances and history.  Just wouldn’t.  “Tehran meeting struck by Israel likely tied to Iran’s atomic bomb plans,” Iran International, 3-20-26.  It is too bad this story is at the bottom of the page for March 20, but regular readers will see it.  The persons who assembled at the Feb. 28 meeting weren’t gathering for a picnic.  And Israel knew their identities.

“US F-35 Hit By Suspected Iranian Fire, Makes Emergency Landing: Report,” NDTV, 3-20-26.

“2 Men Charged With Spying for Iran on Britain’s Oldest Synagogue,” NYT, 3-19-26.

“How Strong Are Iran’s Strongmen?:  A Conversation With Stephen Kotkin,” Foreign Affairs, 3-19-26.

“Iran war updates: Israel refinery bombed as retaliatory strikes reverberate,” Al Jazeera, 3-19-26.

“There’s Only One Path to Victory in Iran,” NYT, 3-19-26.

“As Iran strikes Gulf energy sites, Trump says Israel won’t hit its gas field again—but US will if attacks go on,” Times of Israel, 3-19-26.

“Saudi Official Warns Patience Is Limited as Iranian Attacks Barrage Kingdom,” NYT, 3-19-26.

“QatarEnergy: Iran attacks remove nearly 1/5 of natural gas capacity for years – report,” i24, 3-19-26.  Qatar is realizing what about Iran?!  “QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea and China, with losses of about $20 billion a year, Reuters reports.”

“Israel says Haifa oil refinery hit in Iranian missile attack,” Al Jazeera, 3-19-26.  Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen says ‘no significant damage’ reported after Iranian attack on Haifa oil refinery.

Inflammatory, please excuse the pun.  “Iran hits Qatar gas site in retaliation for Israeli energy strikes,” Iran International, 3-19-26.

Who is winning this war?  How to get the Regime the change?  Do leaders have a chance to surrender?  These are all answerable questions.  “The top Iranian officials killed since Iran war’s start,” Axios, 3-18-26.

Oil, shadow banking, weapons, rocket fuel, international ties.  “How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,” WSJ, 3-18-26.

“Iran Guards issue evacuation warning for petrochemical sites in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE,” Iran International, 3-18-26.

Well-done description of head of Intelligence Ministry.  “Spymaster Esmail Khatib killed: The man who turned dissent into espionage,” Iran International, 3-18-26.

The most detailed story I’ve seen on this.  “Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran,” WSJ, 3-18-26.

“Now that the Iran war is here, the US must complete its mission,” Atlantic Council, 3-18-26.  “One senior Gulf official told me that his country has long known its greatest danger lies in Iran and not in Israel—a reality made obvious in recent days. The war’s inevitability was not due to any one factor, the officials told me. Rather, it was a cumulative consequence of a revolutionary regime that for nearly half a century built its power through murderous proxies, deadly missiles, nuclear aspirations, and relentless intimidation. Another senior Gulf official told me that his country had long argued to US negotiators from Democratic administrations that they were wrong to think that containing Iran’s nuclear capabilities was sufficient, as that failed to address the missiles and proxies that posed threats to its neighbors. In the telling of Gulf officials, the region has been living in a form of shadow war for years. Proxy conflicts, cyberattacks, and military strikes on energy infrastructure were part of a sustained campaign designed by Iran to test and erode the Gulf’s security architecture. Look at Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and increasingly Riyadh. They reflect a degree of religious tolerance, political moderation, and economic modernization that contrasts sharply with Iran’s theocracy. … Even as US forces pursue these objectives, Americans should not lose sight of the larger opportunity. This past week, one Trump administration official spoke to me about a longer-term vision harbored by some in the White House of a Middle East where not only moderate Arab and Israeli leaders normalize their relations—as they have done through the Abraham Accords—but a new Iranian government and Arab leaders eventually do so as well, ultimately leading to Israeli-Iranian normalization. At this time of war without an obvious end, that vision sounds fantastical. But it is seemingly impossible developments like this one that could become reality, serving both US interests and those of its regional partners, if the Trump administration sees through the mission in Iran that it has set out for itself.”

Who is making these decisions in Iran?  That is a very important question.  They are of such consequence, and of such specificity, that it seems like those persons “left behind” wouldn’t have the wherewithal to figure these strikes out.  “Iran threatens to strike Gulf energy facilities after South Pars attack,” Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.

Read the headline and understand what the situation is, as you’ll see in the article, and not what the headline implies.  “U.S. Intelligence Saw No Change in Iran’s Missile Capabilities Before War,” NYT, 3-18-26.

“Iran executes Swedish citizen accused of spying for Israel, judiciary says,” Iran International, 3-18-26.

“Iran continues exporting millions of barrels of oil as around 90 ships cross the Strait of Hormuz despite the war,” PBS, 3-18-26.  Good reporting by PBS.  “Vessels may be transiting “with at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. So, Iran may have “effectively created a safe corridor” with some ships passing close to the Iranian coast. Some vessels near or in the strait were found to have declared themselves as China-linked or with all Chinese crew to reduce risks of being attacked, based on an earlier analysis on ship tracking platform MarineTraffic. Analysts believe they were taking advantage of China’s closer ties with Iran. … The latest passages through the Strait of Hormuz show the strait was not simply “closed. It is better understood as closed selectively against some traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements.””

“Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One,” WSJ, 3-18-26.  “The advanced technology deployed by Israel and the penetration of Iranian society by its agents are combining to create the greatest threat yet to a deeply entrenched regime. But decades of military experience show it is difficult if not impossible to dislodge a government from the air. And if the Iranian regime survives, it could emerge emboldened and more dangerous. “It will be a clear victory for the regime with both predictable and unforeseen circumstances,” said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank. … Israel’s security establishment believes Iran’s crumbling economy and popular anger have put the regime on an irreversible path to collapse whether it happens during the war or down the road. Ultimately, though, it is a job Israel and the U.S. are putting on the Iranian people.”

“Iran holds funerals for officials Larijani and Soleimani,” Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.

“Israel kills Iran intelligence minister Khatib in latest high-profile strike,” JPost, 3-18-26.

“Iran attacks Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City in retaliation for Israeli strikes,” i24, 3-18-26.

“How China Is Quietly Helping an Isolated Iran Survive,” WSJ, 3-18-26.  In the vein of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.  “From buying oil to selling rocket parts, China gives Iran critical support.”

“Iran war: What is happening on day 19 of US-Israel attacks?,” Al Jazeera, 3-18-26.

“Iran Maintains Near-Total Internet Blackout Amid U.S.-Israeli Strikes,” NYT, 3-18-26.  “As the war has stretched into its third week, the Iranian government has blocked internet access for most of its 92 million citizens.”