Iran Nation or Cause

“Reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian wins Iran’s presidential vote,” CNN, 7-6-24.  Remember, reformist really doesn’t mean reformer, someone to stand up to the Regime.  If anything, it means a slight tendency to be willing to talk to the U.S. but only to gain traction for the Islamic State of Iran.  It does not mean any true significant agreement with the U.S., or Saudi Arabia, and certainly absolutely no dealings with Israel.  In this way they are different than the hardline conservatives.  The long CNN article implies Pezeshkian can make change with the West—only the Supreme Leader can, and he won’t.  Another thing the article says, “Out of 30.5 million votes counted in Friday’s runoff, Pezeshkian won 53.6%, edging out ultraconservative Saeed Jalili, who had 44.3% of the votes, according to state-run Press TV. Voter turnout was 49.8%, Press TV reported.”  That is the key, that Press TV reported, a government source.  Remember, only 40% voted (supposedly) for the general election—how would there be more voting in the run-off?  Very unlikely.  Will we ever know the true number of voters?

Regardless, the NYT today in its story implies that having a reformist explains the hope some persons have and came out to vote in greater numbers, just to have some inkling of improvements in life in the country.  As we saw with Rouhani’s presidency, this is unlikely.  The president holds few real powers.  See “Reformist Candidate Wins Iran’s Presidential Election,” NYT, 7-6-24.

See also “Centrist Masoud Pezeshkian will be Iran’s next president,” Al Jazeera, 7-6-24.

“Iranian voters pick moderate as president to replace hardline Raisi,” Reuters, 7-6-24.  He is urging people to stick with him because of the difficulty of the promises he has made.  Success will only be seen if he actually curbs the Morality Police and their abuse of women who don’t partly or fully cover their hair, and success will only be seen if he fulfills the promise of negotiating over the nuclear program and ending the corresponding sanctions.  He will fail because the Leader insists on Islamic values (head coverings) and having nuclear deterrence and offensive capabilities.

“Polls close in Iran presidential run-off,” Al Jazeera, 7-5-24.

“Iranian IRGC Warship Crosses Equator For First Time,” RFE/RL, 7-4-24.

“Quote of the Day—”Maybe they didn’t participate in the elections because they had problems, were busy with work, were not in the mood, or simply didn’t have the time.”  Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.  See “Iran’s Supreme Leader downplays low election turnout,” Iran International, 7-3-24.

“Afghan Asylum Seekers Face Hostility in Iran,” FP, 7-3-24.

These police chiefs now have to watch their backs from Quds.  “Iran imposes sanctions on 11 American individuals,” Mehr, 7-3-24.

“EU diplomat imprisoned in Iran kept his sexuality a secret from the regime,” Politico, 7-3-24.  “Homosexuality is punishable by death in Iran, and thousands have been executed for it there since the 1979 Islamic revolution.”

“Turkey resumed oil imports from Iran in March after 4 years: data shows,” Hellenic News, 7-2-24.

“As Iran faces a rare runoff presidential election, disenchanted voters are staying away,” AP, 7-2-24.

“Khatami says discontent in Iran extends beyond the 60% who didn’t vote,” Iran International, 7-2-24.

“Iran is Exporting Crude Oil to 17 Countries, Minster Tells Mehr,” Mehr, 7-2-24.

“Iran’s presidential candidates discuss economic sanctions and nuclear deal ahead of Friday runoff,” AP, 7-2-24.

“Iran election: How Saeed Jalili’s refusal to quit may hand victory to the reformists,” MEE, 7-2-24.  It is interesting to see in this article clear support for this blog’s position that the Leader calls the shots, and asks various candidates to drop out so the Leader’s favorite can win.

“As Iran faces a rare runoff presidential election, disenchanted voters are staying away,” AP, 7-2-24.

Here is another article showing the discontentment of citizens.  “The Take: Why is Iran seeing its lowest voter turnout ever?,” Al Jazeera, 7-2-24.

“U.S. Nuclear Fears as Iran Targets African Uranium,” Newsweek, 7-2-24.  Let’s have the UN Secretary General call out Niger.

“Iran becomes 4th largest oil exporter in OPEC: Report,” Mehr, 7-2-24.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217141/Iran-becomes-4th-largest-oil-exporter-in-OPEC-Report

“Top adviser to Khamenei says Iran will back Hezbollah with all means if war breaks out,” Times of Israel, 7-2-24.  “A top adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader says the Islamic Republic and its proxies would support Hezbollah with “all means” if Israel launches a war in Lebanon, the Financial Times reports. While stressing that Iran is not interested in a war, Kamal Kharrazi, Ali Khamenei’s foreign affairs adviser, warns that “there would be a chance of expansion of the war to the whole region, in which all countries including Iran would become engaged. In that situation, we would have no choice but to support Hezbollah by all means.””

“Disenchanted Iranian voters abstain in rare runoff presidential election,” Ynet, 7-2-24.

“Iran uses proxy militias in Iraq to pressure the US,” FDD, 7-1-24.

“ADL sues Iran, North Korea and Syria over Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack,” The Hill, 7-1-24.  See also “October 7 victims sue Iran, Syria, North Korea for billions in US court,” Times of Israel, 7-1-24.

“What the Russia-Iran ‘comprehensive agreement’ means for Western security interests,” FDD, 7-1-24.

“Will Iran’s foreign policy change under a new president?,” Al Jazeera, 7-1-24.

Lack of truly robust sanctions enforcement by U.S., and cooperation by some Asian states, and more than 300 ships identified involved.  “Iran’s Oil Exports Hit a 5-Year High in 2024,” Iran International, 7-1-24.

“Arab League Removes Hezbollah From Terror List; How Iran Benefits,” Iran International, 7-1-24.

But what about the Guardian Council?  They said the six candidates have plenty of experience.  “Iranian presidential candidates accuse each other of having no plan or experience ahead of runoff,” AP, 7-1-24.

“US, Europe warn Hezbollah to ease strikes on Israel and back off from wider Mideast war,” Politico, 6-30-24.

“Hezbollah, Iran plan a Mediterranean campaign against Israel,” JNS, 6-30-24.

We very much agree with this, that Iran is emboldened and assisted by Russia and China.  Likewise, “Tehran poses a greater threat to American allies and interests in the Middle East than at any point since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.”  See “How Iran Defied the U.S. to Become an International Power,” WSJ, 6-30-24.  This is a good article about the overall relationship between Iran and the U.S.  The only quibble I have with it is quoting Princeton professor Hossein Mousavian, a known apologist for the Regime.

“Four Takeaways From Iran’s Presidential Election,” NYT, 6-30-24.

“US, Europe warn Hezbollah to ease strikes on Israel and back off from wider Mideast war,” Politico, 6-30-24.

“Hezbollah, Iran plan a Mediterranean campaign against Israel,” JNS, 6-30-24.

We very much agree with this, that Iran is emboldened and assisted by Russia and China.  Likewise, “Tehran poses a greater threat to American allies and interests in the Middle East than at any point since the Islamic Republic was founded in 1979.”  See “How Iran Defied the U.S. to Become an International Power,” WSJ, 6-30-24.  This is a good article about the overall relationship between Iran and the U.S.  The only quibble I would have with it is quoting Princeton professor Hossein Mousavian, a known apologist for the Regime.

“Four Takeaways From Iran’s Presidential Election,” NYT, 6-30-24.

“Iranian Ayatollah Accuses Saudi Arabia of Using Wahhabism to Divide Iran,” Iran International, 6-30-24.

“Campaigning for Iran’s presidential run-off begins,” AA, 6-30-24.

“Iran Sees Historic Gas Flaring Surge Amid Energy Deficit,” Iran International, 6-30-24.

“18 troops hurt, one seriously, in Hezbollah drone strike in north,” Times of Israel, 6-30-24.

“Israel says its Beirut strike killed Hezbollah’s top military commander, who it blames for Golan Heights attack,” CNN, 7-30-24.  A similar strike, as in 2020 against the Quds head, but not as challenging to Iran (and of course the Soleimani was not Israel).

“What We Know About the Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh,” NYT, 7-30-24.

“Voting ends in Iran’s snap presidential election,” AA, 6-29-24.

“Hard-liner Saeed Jalili leads in early Iran presidential election results: Report,” The Indian Express, 6-29-24.

“Iran’s presidential election heads to a runoff after reformist wins most votes,” CNN, 6-29-24.  Remember, reformists are almost identical to conservatives in beliefs.  But they advocate moderation in communication and relationships, like former Pres. Rouhani.  The run-off will be next Friday.  “A reformist candidate won the most votes in the first round of Iran’s presidential election and will face a conservative hardliner in a run-off next week. None of the four candidates secured more than 50% of the vote in Friday’s election, prompting a second round on July 5. The election saw the lowest voter turnout for a presidential election since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979. Reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who received the most votes, will face off in the runoff, according to Mohsen Eslami, the spokesperson for the election committee. Pezeshkian led with 42.5% of the votes, followed by Jalili with 38.6%, according to the state news agency IRNA. Out of 60 million eligible voters, 24 million cast their ballots, resulting in a 40% turnout, Eslami said.

The percentage voting is also reported by NBC now, just 40%.  “Iran to hold run-off election between reformist Pezeshkian and hard-liner Jalili,” NBC, 6-29-24.  “After counting over 24.5 million votes, Pezeshkian had 10.41 million while Jalili held 9.47 million.  The historically low turnout of 39.96 percent is itself a gauge of the Iranian electorates’ waning support of its Shiite theocracy after years of economic turmoil and mass protests.  Another candidate, hard-line parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, had some 3.38 million votes. Shiite cleric Mostafa Pourmohammadi had just over 206,000 votes.”

Perhaps it is appropriate that the story of Iran’s nuclear program gets headlines, continually, even as the selection of a new president is processed.  “Iran Installs Half of Planned New Centrifuges at Fordow, IAEA Report Says,” Haaretz, Reuters, 6-29-24.  “Iran has installed half the advanced uranium-enriching machines it said earlier this month it would quickly add to its Fordow site dug into a mountain, but has not yet brought them online, the UN nuclear watchdog said in a report seen by Reuters. Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency two weeks ago it would rapidly expand its enrichment capacity at Fordow by adding eight cascades, or clusters, of IR-6 centrifuges at Fordow within three to four weeks.”

“Financial Watchdog Keeps Iran on Global Blacklist,” Iran International, 6-29-24.

“Iran’s supreme leader is terrified of people power,” Economist, 6-29-24.

“How Iran is growing rich despite its status as a pariah nation,” NYPost, 6-29-24.

“Iran presidential candidate Jalili is fiercely loyal to Khamenei,” Reuters, 6-29-24.

“Iran heads to presidential run-off on July 5 amid record low turnout,” Al Jazeera, 6-29-24.  “Only 40 percent of more than 61 million eligible Iranians voted, the Ministry of Interior said on Saturday, a new low in presidential elections since the country’s 1979 revolution.”

“Voter Turnout Plummets Across Iran’s Restive Provinces,” Iran International, 6-29-24.

This blog sometimes points out countries assisting Iran, and helping it delay a decision to move from a revolutionary country to a normal state.  Here is another such article.  “A space quad: Russia, China, North Korea and Iran,” Asia Times, 6-28-24.  Space cooperation is another element to the relationship among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who already cooperate in weapons sales, energy, and finance.

Only country in the world where a candidate would say this.  “Iran’s sole reformist candidate wants warm ties ‘with all countries except Israel’,” 6-28-24.  And he’s not even identified as a hardliner.

“Iran Election Pits Engagement With West Against More Confrontation,” WSJ, 6-28-24.

“With Voter Discontent High, Turnout Appears to Plummet in Iran,” NYT, 6-28-24.