Iran must release all hostages belonging to any of the P5+1 states, and pledge to take no more because it will be punished for doing so, before the negotiations begin.  This hostage taking (a practice since 1979) must stop.  It is not normal for any country to hold people as pawns in international relations.  See “U.S. in Contact With Iran on Detained Americans, Biden Aide Says,” Tony Czuczka, Bloomberg, February 21, 2021.

Note two things.  First, the U.S. sanctions are forcing Iran back to the negotiating table, exactly what the U.S. hoped.  (this is something the media is not yet picking up on).  Second, the sanctions are not the fault of the U.S., they were imposed because of Iran’s actions.  (this is something the media will not admit).  See “US sanctions inflicted $1 trillion damage on Iran’s economy: FM,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, February 21, 2021.

An accurate and concise statement—“Iran’s deafening silence on China’s Uighur Muslim repression speaks volumes about Tehran’s reliance on Beijing’s money.”  See “Why Iran won’t cross China on the Uighurs,” Kourosh Ziabari, Asia Times, February 21, 2021.

Again, just words.  Iran’s FM says things like this headline, but there are no resulting actions.  “Iran Says Ready for Talks With Arab States Without Preconditions,” Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 21, 2021.

This article is an example of the Leader and his Regime making rational calculations to move toward what they want—reduced sanctions, and not losing the ability to acquire ultimate weapons.  “Iran’s Compromise With Nuclear Monitors Limits Escalation,” Jonathan Tirone and Arsalan Shahla, Bloomberg, February 21, 2021.

“The Influence of Persian Racism on Status of Azerbaijani Turks in Iran,” Elchin Hatami, Modern Diplomacy, February 21, 2021.

Reuters says, “Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards have arrested dozens of dual nationals and foreigners in recent years, mostly on espionage charges. Rights activists have accused Iran of using them as bargaining chips, something Tehran denies.”  But Reuters, who has years of reporting on Iran’s hostage taking, refuses to run a story on whether the U.S. citizens are criminals/terrorists/etc.  Why won’t Reuters do an investigative story on those held in Iran and those held in the U.S.  And for other countries?  This is not rocket science.  See “Any U.S.-Iran communication over detained U.S. citizens has been via Swiss – official,” Reuters, February 21, 2021.

So Iran will follow its domestic law and end snap inspections under the JCPOA Additional Protocol.  Using later domestic-passed law to obviate international agreements is actually a violation itself of treaty principles—every International Law treatise includes this.  Further undermining Iran’s position here is that the Regime will not follow the letter of the law passed by the Majlis—it will instead allow three months of limited snap inspections as a compromise with the IAEA.  See “IAEA strikes deal with Iran to cushion coming blow of slashed access,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, February 21, 2021.

Reuters is making a lot of news today.  This goes back to my point about not reporting about the true nature of the hostages.  “White House says U.S. communicating with Iran over detained Americans,” Michael Martina, Reuters, February 21, 2021.

“Non-oil trade” is the key phrase.  Regardless of U.S. sanctions, keep your eye on the ball about what is being shipped—especially if it’s not on the manifest.  “Iran to launch direct shipping line to S. Africa, Latin America,” Hellinic Shipping News, February 21, 2021.

A novel definition of “non-breach” of an international agreement—FM Zarif says “All our steps (to breach the deal) are reversible…The move on Feb. 23 is not abandoning the deal,” Zarif said in a televised interview with Iran’s English Language Press TV.”  Under international law, whether a step is reversible or not does not constitute the definition of breach.  (I am having to offer too much international law guidance here—why isn’t the media interviewing international law scholars in the same article to refute what the FM claims?).  See “Iran’s Zarif Says Ending IAEA Snap Inspections Doesn’t Breach Nuclear Deal,” Asharq Al-Awsat, February 21, 2021.

Sometimes this blog carries news of countries that enable or influence Iran’s behavior.  Here is one of these.  “No matter how warm relations between Washington and Delhi become, history shows that some level of non-alignment will always be part of India’s policies.”  See “What India’s Relationship with Iran Means for America,” Larry Wortzel, National Interest, February 20, 2021.

It is really interesting and informing to read the types of stories carried by TASS.  “Russia, China seek to comply with nuclear deal, Europe does not – Iran’s foreign minister,” TASS, February 21, 2021.

“Iran closes Iraq border points to stem spread of coronavirus variant,” Reuters, February 20, 2021.

“Iran says studies EU-proposed informal meeting with U.S.,” Reuters, February 20, 2021.

“Iran’s female alpine ski team is coachless in Italy,” DW, February 20, 2021.

Iran, as seen in this article, is now claiming all Pres. Trump declarations are invalid and will be withdrawn.  “Reversing Trump Mideast Policy, Biden Ready for Talks With Iran,” Matthew Lee, Real Clear Politics, February 19, 2021.

What timing.  Get some extra hostages for leverage.  Either Iran is totally tone deaf, or it is banking on the knowledge that in this case “past performance is a guarantee of future performance” (to turn a financial phrase)—they know that hostage taking pays.  See “French-Iranian, German Citizens ‘Arrested In Iran’,” RFE/RL, February 19, 2021.

“Iran hangs already-dead woman Zahra Esmaili, lawyer says,” Iran Human Rights Monitor, February 19, 2021.

“Iran’s Largest Agrifood Export Terminal Launched in Mazandaran,” Financial Tribune, February 19, 2021.

“IRGC official says Iran’s conventional arms non-negotiable,” Tehran Times, February 19, 2021.

A great story.  “Judoka who fled Iran over Israeli matchup wins silver in Tel Aviv Grand Slam,” Rami Ayyub, Yahoo Sports, February 19, 2021.

Five years?!  “UIA plane crash: Ukraine expects to get compensation from Iran within 5 years,” Ukrinform, February 19, 2021.

“Unaddressed by the president and his team was the shift in posture that announcement represented. For weeks, and as recently as February 12, the White House had insisted that no new talks with Iran could commence, even with the Europeans involved, unless and until the Islamic regime first returned to compliance with the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). “It’s really up to Iran to come back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA. And at that point, we could move the discussion forward,” White House Press secretary Jen Psaki said at the press briefing of February 8. Four days later, she repeated: “If Iran comes back into full compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA, the United States would do the same and then use that as a platform to build a longer and stronger agreement and also address areas of concern.”  See “White House defends shift in Iran posture,” James Rose, Local 12, February 19, 2021.

Will the Biden Administration require accountability from Iran, or will the USG look away?  “Iranian-backed militias likely behind deadly rocket attack on U.S.-led base, experts say,” Dan De Luce, NBC, February 19, 2021.

“They Thought, Why Not Iran? The Decision Upended Their Lives,” Farnaz Fassihi, New York Times, CBNC, February 18, 2021.

“Bolton: Iran has never abandoned Idea of acquiring nuclear capability,” Ali Younes, Arab News, February 18, 2021.

““An extraordinary wave of support”: Calls in unison for Iran to end persecution of Bahá’ís,” Baha’i World News Service, February 18, 2021.

“The 37-year-old Zargari said that her husband is now in a relationship with her best friend and that he requested she consent to a divorce. “I didn’t and he blocked me,” Zargari said, adding that her husband is “always laughing (at) my job and my team.” The couple was together for five years, said Zargari, who was writing from the Shemshak ski resort. She said her husband was born in the United States and is a citizen of both the U.S. and Iran. Under Iranian law, husbands can stop their wives from traveling outside of the country.”  See “Barred from travel by husband, Iran ski coach works remotely,” Andrew Dampf, AP, News and Observer, February 18, 2021.

“In signal to Iran, Israel, US begin developing Arrow-4 missile defense system,” Udi Shaham, Jerusalem Post, February 18, 2021.

Quote of the Day candidate.  “Iranian Judo Star in Tel Aviv: ‘We Were Taught to Hate Israelis’,” Itamar Katzir, Haaertz, February 18, 2021.

Another political prisoner eliminated.  “Outrage over ‘killing’ of Iranian Dervish prisoner of conscience,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, February 17, 2021.

“Husband of Iran’s ski coach bars her from leaving country,” New Haven Register, February 17, 2021.

Whipsaw.  Iran on Feb. 15 said it would expel.  Now it says the opposite.  “Iran says it will not expel IAEA nuclear inspectors,” Syed Zafar Mehdi, AA, February 17, 2021.

“Iran: Suicidal inmate subjected to 60 lashes and at risk of amputation,” Amnesty International, February 17, 2021.

“To save Iraq from economic collapse and fight ISIS, contain Iran’s proxies,” Ranj Alaaldin, Brookings, February 17, 2021.

And similar to the entry above, “Shadow Network of Militias Backs Iran,” Amira El-Fekki and Sune Engel Rasmussen, Wall Street Journal, February 16, 2021.

“Iran’s Soleimani set up centers to monitor Jews for Zionism – report,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, February 17, 2021.

“IAEA chief to visit Tehran before Iran reduces cooperation -Iran envoy,” Reuters, Jerusalem Post, February 17, 2021.

“Iran plans extra advanced machines at underground enrichment plant: IAEA,” Reuters Staff, February 17, 2021.

An Iranian PMU fired 107 mm rockets at a military installation next to the civilian airport.  “U.S., Kurds Blame Iran for Deadly Irbil Attack Despite Tehran’s Denials: Sources,” Paul Shinkman, USNWR, February 16, 2021.

Good analysis.  Iran is now testing Biden with violence, not just threats.  “After rocket attack, Biden faces first real test on Iran,” Martin Chulov, Guardian, February 16, 2021.

Quote of the day.  “In October 2019, the International Judo Federation said it had banned Iran from international competition over the country’s refusal to allow its fighters to face Israeli opponents. Iran said the ban was based on “false claims.” On Tuesday, president of the Iranian Judo Federation Arash Miresmaeili expressed regret that “a foolish athlete” and “hollow champion who only thinks of his personal interests has gone to Tel Aviv [for an international judo competition, representing Mongolia] and is proud of it.” “This is not an honor but a stain of shame on your forehead that will stay with you forever, because you have turned your back on the ideals of the system, on your homeland, and are proud of it,” Miresmaeili said in a statement, addressing Mollaei.”  See “Israeli media hails ‘historic’ arrival of Iranian-born judoka,” Arab News, AFP, February 16, 2021.

The next step to blackmail the remaining JCPOA parties (really just UK, France, and Germany) by Iran, which has told the UN IAEA that it will halt snap nuclear inspections on February 23.  See “Iran to curb cooperation with nuclear watchdog inspectors,” Al Jazeera, February 16, 2021.

“Iran could deploy 200 missiles in Iraq to attack Israel,” Jerusalem Post, February 16, 2021.

“The Deterrent Message Iran Needs to Hear,” Elliott Abrams, op-ed, National Review, Yahoo News, February 16, 2021.  “Trump tweeted on December 23, two days after an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, “Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.” The messages were clear: If an Iranian proxy killed an American, the U.S. reaction would not target the proxy but would target Iran. What exactly that meant was kept ambiguous; Iran had to calculate risks. And the Iranian regime did so. From the election to the inauguration there was one attack, and after that December attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, the Iranian proxies desisted. And to repeat, there is only one logical explanation for this: Tehran got the message and instructed them to desist. This background explains why the attack on Americans in Erbil is so important. Iran understood the messages from the United States prior to January 20, but what is the message now? Will we “hold accountable those responsible,” as Blinken said, or will we instead allow Iran to hide behind proxies it controls? If we do the latter, the message to Iran is that such attacks are acceptable — and we can expect more of them. These are efforts to kill Americans, and by killing or wounding American servicemembers and contractors to drive the United States from Iraq. The Biden administration should instead adopt a policy of deterrence, warning Iran that it will be held accountable directly. That messaging, plus a clear willingness to carry through if need be, has worked. It did not reduce attacks to zero, but it significantly depressed their size and frequency — because those must have been the orders from Tehran. Those orders can be sent to the Iraqi Shia militias once again. It all depends on what Tehran hears from Washington. If an American is killed by an Iranian-supported militia and the United States responds, does that mean the end of diplomacy or a wider war? It does not. The United States has a multitude of military options, some of which would clearly signal to Iran that we have no wish to escalate into a larger conflict — but that we insist the Iranian regime stop trying to kill Americans — or else. That’s the message the Biden administration should be sending this week.”

“Bulgarian prosecutors say heroin found in cargo from Iran,” AP, Star Tribune, February 16, 2021.  “Bulgarian customs officials confiscated more than 400 kilograms (880 pounds) of heroin from a ship transporting goods from Iran, prosecutors said Tuesday. The drugs were divided in 487 packages and hidden among asphalt rollers the ship was carrying, prosecutor Vladimir Chavdarov. Customs officials in the Black Sea port of Varna valued the seized heroin at 18 million euros ($22 million). Two Bulgarian men – the owner of the receiving company and a customs officer – were detained and could face up to 20 years in jail, if convicted on drug trafficking charges. Bulgarian police believe the heroin was not intended for the domestic market but rather destined to be sold in Western Europe. Drugs from the Mideast sometimes are transported on trucks from Afghanistan through Iran, Turkey and Bulgaria to Western Europe.”

“Iran had between 80,000 and 100,000 Jews before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but most have since fled, mainly to the United States, Israel and Europe. There are now only about 8,500 left, mostly in Tehran but also in Isfahan and Shiraz, major cities south of the capital.”  See “Iran arrests thieves digging secret tunnel to steal from synagogue,” Jerusalem Post, February 16, 2021.

“Iran military slams spy chief for saying soldier tied to nuke scientist’s death,” AFP, Times of Israel, February 16, 2021.

“Iran’s ‘JCPOA Blackmail’ Must Be Met With International Pressure,” Hassan Mahmoudi, op-ed, Eurasia Review, February 15, 2021.

How can Iran claim that it is an act of piracy, if Iran said it is not their oil?  Go figure.  It would be nice if the media and other countries pointed this out.  Iran can’t says its not theirs but that they’re been stolen from.  Am I missing something?  “Iran Says U.S. Attempt to Seize Oil Cargo Is ‘Act of Piracy’,” Arsalan Shahla, Yahoo Finance, February 15, 2021.

“Iran says it will end snap IAEA inspections if nuclear deal terms not met,” Arab News, Reuters, February 15, 2021.

“In a dangerous game of cat and mouse, Iran eyes new targets in Africa,” New York Times, The Economic Times, February 15, 2021.  “When Ethiopia’s intelligence agency recently uncovered a cell of 15 people it said were casing the embassy of the United Arab Emirates, along with a cache of weapons and explosives, it claimed to have foiled a major attack with the potential to sow havoc in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. But the Ethiopians omitted a key detail about the purported plot: who was behind it. The only clue was the arrest of a 16th person: Accused of being the ringleader, Ahmed Ismail had been picked up in Sweden with the cooperation of friendly “African, Asian and European intelligence services,” the Ethiopians said. Now U.S. and Israeli officials say the operation was the work of Iran, whose intelligence service activated a sleeper cell in Addis Ababa last fall with orders to gather intelligence also on the embassies of the United States and Israel. They say the Ethiopian operation was part of a wider drive to seek soft targets in African countries where Iran might avenge painful, high-profile losses such as the death of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, said to have been killed by Israel in November, and Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian spymaster killed by the United States in Iraq just over one year ago.”

Notice who’s not there—Syria.  If my country was going to have a new constitution, I kind of think at a minimum my country should be part of the conversation.  Iran is angling to keep its pipeline to Hezbollah in Lebanon alive and well.  “Turkey, Russia, Iran to start talks on Syria Tuesday,” Nazli Yuzbasioglu, AA, February 15, 2021.

Not a good idea, Iraq should have turned this down.  Or at least until Iran made amends to Ukraine and Canada.  “Iran and Iraq set up special court to investigate Soleimani assassination,” Middle East Monitor, February 15, 2021.

“Retired Government Employees Protest In Iran Demanding Higher Pensions,” RFE/RL, February 15, 2021.

“Iran says it will end snap IAEA inspections if nuclear deal terms not met,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, February 15, 2021.

“Iraqi Airlines Resume Flights to Iran,” Tasnim, February, 15, 2021.

“In Tehran, families of downed Flight PS752 demand arrest of Revolutionary Guard leader,” Nahayat Tizhoosh and Ashley Burke, CBC News, February 15, 2021.

“Khomeini in the Archipelago: Iranian Interests and Influence in Indonesia,” Maxwell Lowe, The Diplomat, February 15, 2021.

It is easy enough for the United Nations to send one of its in-country representatives to Damascus Airport and stop this.  (DHL could to).  Will they?  “Report: Iran concealing weapons stockpiles in UN containers at Damascus airport,” Neta Bar, Israel Hayom, February 14, 2021.  “Tehran is using UN containers to conceal weapons stockpiles at the Damascus International Airport, according to a report in the Voice of Damascus, a news site aligned with Syrian rebel fighters. According to a source employed at private company, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have set up a dummy container terminal adjacent to the airport. Containers at the site bear the names of the UN and international shipping company DHL. The Iranians are using the new terminal as a temporary distribution center for storing weapons, in particular missiles and missile parts, prior to their distribution throughout Syria. According to the source, the terminal is situated just 200 meters (yards) from the airport, which was targeted by Israel in the past for its use by the Revolutionary Guards to arm Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian militias and Hezbollah. The facility is guarded by members of the Revolutionary Guards, according to the report, and airport workers are prevented from getting near the site. The terminal holds over 25 containers formerly used by the UN.”

“Iran, Russia to hold joint naval exercise in Indian Ocean: military official,” Xinhua, February 14, 2021.  And Happy Valentine’s Day.

“Iran and Russia to form economic alliance,” Neta Bar, Israel Hayom, February 14, 2021.  Another Valentine’s.  The concern is that Iran’s move to join Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union will allow Iran to ability to bypass U.S. sanctions and of course advance its nuclear program.

More news through China.  “Iran receives “no message” to withdraw forces from Syria: official,” Xinhua, February 14, 2021.

Most of these companies are owned and controlled by the IRGC.  “Iran’s top 100 companies honored,” Tehran Times, February 14, 2021.

“Iran’s army test fires short-range ‘smart’ missile,” AP, February 14, 2021.

“Biden could be forced to show his hand on Iran nuclear deal in next 7 days,” Times of Israel, February 14, 2021.  “A key date comes on February 21 when Iran, under a law passed in December by the conservative-led parliament, is set to stop allowing inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency unless there is an easing of US sanctions.”

“These abuses echo anti-LGBT+ medical treatments by the Nazis.”  See “Iran’s use of ‘electric shocks’ on gay children is torture, says UN report,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, February 14, 2021.

“IRGC-made militias the most dangerous of all Iran-backed groups – study,” Saeid Golkar and Kasra Aarabi, op-ed, Jerusalem Post, February 14, 2021.

A rare story, but partly due (probably) to the U.S. sanctions’ affect on the Iran terror budget.  Also, “Iran has reportedly been critical of Islamic Jihad spending, and the exorbitant salaries it pays operatives on all levels. The Palestinian terrorist group’s leaders are reportedly furious over the move, and the cuts have led to an internal dispute between the commanders of the Al-Quds Brigades, which has even resulted in an armed conflict between them.”  See “Report: Iran slashes Islamic Jihad’s funding,” Shahar Klaiman, Israel Hayom, February 14, 2021.

This is a message from Iran to Saudi Arabia—“Houthi rebels demand Saudi-led coalition end airstrikes in Yemen in return for halting their attacks on Saudi Arabia.”  See “Yemen rebels offer to halt attacks on Saudi Arabia,” AA, February 14, 2021.

This can’t be discounted because it is the MOI head Alavi making the claim.  “Minister: Iran prosecuting main perpetrator behind nuclear scientist’s assassination,” Press TV, February 14, 2021.

The U.S. allows Afghanistan to import oil and fuel from Iran in a special concession exempting Afghanistan from sanctions against Iran.  We don’t know what triggered this fire yet, maybe from the Iranian side of the border post.  “500 vehicles in flames after fuel tanker explodes on Afghanistan-Iran border,” Jessie Yeung, CNN, February 13, 2021.

“Iran Journalist Gets 2 Years in Prison for Writing about Vice President’s Brother’s Corruption Case,” Michael Lipin and Ramin Haghjoo, VOA, February 13, 2021.

“Christians detained for their faith in Iran paid nearly £1m in bail in 2020,” Christianity Today, February 13, 2021.

A concerning visit from a leading figure to be the next Supreme Leader.  “What’s so popular about Iran judiciary chief’s visit to Iraq?,” Press TV, February 13, 2021.

“Iran’s Guard begins ground forces drill near Iraqi border,” AP, Military Times, February 12, 2021.

“Venezuela receives more airlifts of refinery materials from Iran,” Reuters, February 12, 2021.

“Iranian official arrested in Istanbul over dissident’s killing: sources,” KFGO, Thomson Reuters, February 12, 2021.