The seven candidates for the June 18 presidential election had a debate, and two more debates will be held Tuesday and Saturday. “Iran’s presidential candidates clash amid disqualification row,” Maziar Motamedi, Al Jazeera, June 5, 2021.
“Iran presidential candidates trade barbs in TV debate,” Reuters, June 5, 2021.
This is a very true argument—that if the U.S. wants Iran to change, the U.S. itself must be willing to commit (through a treaty) to that same agreement. Note also that this is a full board opinion piece. “Biden Should Aim for a Treaty, Not a Deal, with Iran,” Editorial Board, Bloomberg, June 4, 2021.
Politico is getting on this boat after it left the dock, a few days late on this story. But more interesting is to observe that the media in general does not report on or investigate the “why does this matter” aspect of the story. After years of Iranian naval activity (usually closer to home), what good purpose for Iran or good purpose for other countries does the IRGC provide? Anti-smuggling? Anti-piracy? Patrolling straits? Providing humanitarian assistance? Defense? No, Iran’s Navy and “coast guard” is not built for nor does it provide these services that a normal navy does. So it is up to Politico to look back so that it can know what questions to ask about the present, and the future. “Iranian warships appear to begin first Atlantic crossing as U.S. warns against weapons transfers,” Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi, Politico, June 4, 2021.
“Iran wants action, not promises, to revive nuclear deal, Khamenei says,” Reuters, June 4, 2021.
I don’t think so. Experience in these election decisions by the Supreme Leader shows they are usually final. “Decision to remove candidates from Iran election to be reviewed,” Reuters, June 4, 2021.
Iran is in arrears on paying dues to the UN operating budget and will lose voting rights in the 193-state General Assembly. I believe they owe 16M, from a posting some months ago. This is an indication that the U.S. sanctions do bite because Iran does not want to lose face at the UN—lots of receptions and of course Nowruz. But now they will. “Iran, Central African Republic lose voting rights in UN General Assembly,” Business Standard, AP, June 3, 2021.
It is quite rich (excuse the pun) for FM Zarif (he makes an appearance!) to claim that U.S. sanctions prevent Iran from paying its UN bill. Just look at how much Iran is spending to spin centrifuges! Or look at any other unnecessary expense that Iran is making against its neighbors or against Arab states or in Syria or in Yemen, the list is billions of dollars long. And Iran has money in its sovereign funds. And the Ayatollah is worth billions. They’ve got the money. See “U.N. Suspends Iran’s Voting Rights for Delinquent Dues. Iran is Furious,” Rick Gladstone and Farnaz Fassihi, New York Times, June 3, 2021.
“The Iranian Navy IRINS Makran supposedly headed to Venezuela is ordered back home as a result of IRIS Kharg sinking in the Gulf of Oman. She will replace Kharg in the IRIN training mission to Russia. It won’t be officially confirmed as they weren’t officially headed to Venezuela.” See “Loss of Iranian Navy Ship Mutes Tehran’s Global Ambitions,” 3rd Warship Lost Since 2018,” H.I. Sutton, USNI News, June 3, 2021.
“Why Iran’s Presidential Election Is a Sham,” Eli Lake, op-ed, Bloomberg, June 3, 2021.
“U.S. sees sixth round of Iran nuclear talks and likely more,” Reuters, June 3, 2021.
“Opinion: The way forward on containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” Bob Menendez and Lindsey Graham, op-ed, Washington Post, June 3, 2021.
“Iran nuclear talks expected to resume on June 10 – diplomats,” Reuters, June 2, 2021. Can’t wait for this one. “EU official sees Iran nuclear deal at next round of talks,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, June 2, 2021.
“Iran Interested in Russian Weapons Systems: Moscow Official,” Inder Singh Bisht, Defense Post, June 2, 2021.
Yes, and 16 times greater than any other country that owes back dues. “Iran and CAR lose voting rights in UN General Assembly,” AP, June 2, 2021.
“Iran’s deception began as soon as talks ended,” Kaveh Taheri, op-ed, Israel Hayom, June 2, 2021.
Very good overview of the various Naval incidents for Iran in the past several years, including this one for the Kharg, a supply/refueling ship, which burned and sank June 1. “Iran’s largest warship catches fire, sinks in Gulf of Oman,” Amir Vahdat and Jon Gambrell, AP, June 1, 2021.
“UPDATED: Iranian Warship Thought to be Headed to Venezuela Left Port with 7 High-Speed Missile Boats Aboard,” H.I. Sutton and Sam LaGrone, USNI News, June 1, 2021.
“Iran’s biggest cement production line inaugurated,” Tehran Times, June 1, 2021.
It is my understanding the pilots were inside a hanger when their ejection seat discharged. Certainly a tragic scene. “Iran TV: ‘Technical problem’ on fighter jet kills 2 pilots,” AP, June 1, 2021.
“Iran navy training ship on fire at mouth of Gulf, crew evacuated –report,” Reuters, June 1, 2021.
What?! “In March, the import volumes of Iranian crude reportedly totaled 33,000 barrels per day. That marks the first delivery of Iranian crude to the US since 1991.” Trying to entice the Regime back into compliance with the JCPOA? See “US reports it has imported sanctioned oil from Iran, a first after 30 years of sanctions,” Hellenic Shipping News, May 31, 2021. “The United States imported a rare cargo of 1.033 million barrels of Iranian crude in March despite sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.” See “U.S. imports rare Iranian oil in March despite sanctions – EIA data,” Reuters, May 30, 2021. Ah, now it is apparent—the Biden Administration is not directly buying Iranian oil, but this influx is from the seizure of the Iranian tanker sailing to Venezuela. “U.S. records show Iran crude oil cargo landed in March, month after ship seizure,” Reuters, May 30, 2021. Finally, see “US sells off Iranian crude oil seized off coast of UAE,” Jon Gambrell, AP, May 31, 2021. “The U.S. has sold some 2 million barrels of Iranian crude oil after seizing an oil tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, court documents and government statistics show. The Iranian crude oil showed up in new figures released over the weekend by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, raising the eyebrows of commodities traders as Tehran remains targeted by a series of American sanctions. The EIA figures included just over 1 million barrels of Iranian “crude oil imports” in March. The oil came from the MT Achilleas, a ship seized in February by the U.S. off the coast of the Emirati port city of Fujairah. U.S court documents allege the Achilleas was subject to forfeiture under American anti-terrorism statues as Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard tried to use it to sell crude oil to China. The U.S. has identified the Guard as a terrorist organization since the administration of former President Donald Trump. Prosecutors say shippers tried to disguise the shipment by labeling it as “Basra light crude” from neighboring Iraq. The U.S. government brought the Achilleas to Houston, Texas, where it sold the just over 2 million barrels of crude oil within it for $110 million, or at around $55 a barrel, court documents show. The money will be held in escrow amid a court case over it.”
“Iran and world powers resume ‘final round’ of nuclear deal talks,” Business Standard, May 31, 2021.
“The Iranian people are not just struggling against the coronavirus but also against the Velayat (clerical rule) Virus.” See “Iran and the Covid-19 crisis,” Firouz Daneshgari, Modern Diplomacy, May 31, 2021.
“Iran: Hamas already rebuilding Iran-backed rocket arsenal,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, May 31, 2021.
“Iran Nuclear-Fuel Production Plummets After Natanz Explosion,” Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, May 31, 2021.
“Pan-Gulf identity as an alternative to Iran’s Vilayat-e Faqih,” Mohammed Al-Sulami, Arab News, May 31, 2021.
One more reason not to treat with Iran. “UN watchdog: Access to key Iranian data lacking since Feb 23,” Kiyoko Metzler and David Rising, AP, May 31, 2021.
“70-Percent Increase in Price of Food in Iran,” Jubin Katiraie, Iran Focus, May 31, 2021.
“Can Hamas, an Iranian Proxy, Be Deterred?,” Farhad Rezaei, BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,058, May 31, 2021.
“Iran: Ebrahim Raisi, the Oppressor of Mashhad Protests,” Mahmoud Hamidi, Iran News Update, May 31, 2021.
“UN nuclear watchdog chides Iran over uranium enrichment,” DW, May 31, 2021.
“Iran warns Armenia to halt Araz River pollution,” AzerNews, May 31, 2021.
“Iran’s Virtually Uncontested Presidential Election Is a Precursor To Expanded Repression,” Mansoureh Galestan, NCRI, May 31, 2021.
“Women Share Stories Of Sexual Abuse In Iranian Prisons,” Golnaz Esfandiari, RFE/RL, May 31, 2021.
“Iran fails to explain uranium traces found at several sites -IAEA report,” Francois Murphy, Reuters, May 31, 2021.
“Benjamin Briere: France condemns spying charge against tourist in Iran,” Tim Stickings, The National, May 31, 2021.
“Iranian-backed militias are in America’s sights,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, May 30, 2021.
This is rational decision—a candidate who remains the central bank chief would affect monetary and exchange rate policies. But Hemmatti should have resigned on his own without putting the President in this situation. “Rohani Dismisses Iran’s Central Bank Chief Over Presidential Candidacy,” RFE/RL, May 30, 2021.
“Intelligence Website Releses 3D Reconstructed Images of Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Facility,” Algemeiner, May 30, 2021.
“The Five Myths That Doom a New Iran Deal,” Michael Rubin, National Interest, May 30, 2021.
“Iran: Chief Of Police Threatens Supporters Of Election Boycott,” Iran News Wire, May 30, 2021.
It is not normal for a country to do this. “Iran praises Hamas for missile barrages, commemorates key missile maker,” Seth Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, May 29, 2021.
“Iran-backed militias turn to drone attacks, alarming U.S. forces in Iraq,” Louisa Loveluck and John Hudson, Washington Post, May 29, 2021.
Seven years and counting, thank you Iran. “Yemen FM says Iran’s support for Houthis is prolonging war,” Arab News, May 29, 2021.
“Iranian tanker seized by Indonesia is released after 4 months,” Reuters, May 29, 2021. The “Iranian-flagged tanker, the MT Horse, was released on Friday after a court decision earlier in the week. The court ruled the vessel could leave Indonesia, while the captain would be subject to a two-year probation without any fine.” He was also released.
It is not clear from this news how this is related to U.S. sanctions, which do not prohibit medicine and other essential aid. “Iran says Iraq to release $125 million of frozen funds for vaccines,” Reuters, May 29, 2021.
“U.S. monitoring Iranian warships that may be headed to Venezuela,” Betsy Woodruff Swan, Lara Seligman, Andrew Desiderio, and Nahal Toosi, Politico, May 29, 2021.
“Israelis should ‘go back’ to Europe, US: Iran’s Quds Force commander,” WION News, May 29, 2021.
One of the most important stories during May, and which many intelligence agencies may have been aware during the 11 day conflict. “Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah coordinated Gaza fighting in joint war room — report,” Times of Israel, May 29, 2021. “Iran’s IRGC and Hezbollah coordinated with Hamas on the recent fighting in Gaza between Palestinian terrorists and Israel, according to the editor-in-chief of a Lebanese daily affiliated with Hezbollah. … [O]fficers from the IRGC, Hamas and Hezbollah set up a joint military operations center in Beirut. The commander of the IRGC’s overseas Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani, visited the operations center twice during the military hostilities, according to Al-Amine. The newspaper editor claimed Hezbollah sent weapons and ammunition to Gaza and “moved a number of Palestinian resistance officers out of the Strip during the aggression,” according to Al-Manar.” How did these personnel move and this support occur?
It is not normal in most countries for the military to back a candidate and take steps to ensure he wins. “Iran Guards Say Not Supporting Any Candidate But ‘Educating’ Voters,” Iran International, May 29, 2021.
“From Tehran to Jerusalem via Gaza: A Hamas rocket’s trajectory,” Christian Science Monitor, May 28, 2021.
“Iran’s Rohani Congratulates Assad On Syria Election Victory,” RFE/RL, May 28, 2021. “Iranian President Hassan Rohani has congratulated Syria’s Bashar al-Assad on winning a fourth seven-year presidential term in an election dismissed as a sham by the opposition and Western governments, according to an Iranian presidential website. … Assad won the election on May 27 with a majority of 95 percent. The election was the second presidential vote since the country’s conflict began 10 years ago to challenge Assad’s authority following his takeover from his father in 2000, and featured no independent monitors. Assad ran against two little-known figures for Syria’s top post, which has been held by a member of the Assad family for five decades. … The Syrian civil war broke out in 2011 when anti-Assad protests turned into an armed insurgency in response to a brutal military crackdown. The fighting has left nearly half a million dead and half the country’s population displaced, including more than 5 million refugees outside Syria. With the help of Russia and Iran, Assad has crushed the insurgency and regained control over 70 percent of territory.”
NYT gives Milani a favorable quote. “Today we are witnessing an unabashed attack on any semblance of republican principles in favor of the absolute power of the supreme leader,” said Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. See “Iran Clears Way for Hard-line Judiciary Chief to Become President,” Farnaz Fassihi, New York Times, May 28, 2021.
What will 80 lashes do to Narges Mohammadi, a campaigner against the death penalty, and spokeswoman for the Defenders of Human Rights Centre in Iran? She was found guilty of “propaganda against the system.” “Iran sentences activist to 30 months jail, flogging,” Arab News, AFP, May 27, 2021.
“Iran’s Khamenei backs hardliner versus hardliner presidential vote,” Parisa Hafezi, Reuters, May 27, 2021.
Bizzaro, on two fronts. First, why would the Iranian Health Ministry have a picture of the dead Quds Force leader on the wall? His life activities didn’t have too much to do with health, instead the opposite. Second, Iranians have been moaning for months about the need from more inoculations. Why export? The home crowd needs these. “Iran Says Mass Producing Covid 19 Vaccines, Ready For Export,” Kashmir Observer, May 27, 2021.
“Iran: Ukraine Airline Victims’ Families Harassed, Abused,” HRW, May 27, 2021.
“New Iranian Underwater Weapon Hints At Technology Advances,” David Hambling, Forbes, May 27, 2021.
On the other hand, after reading Max Boot’s op-ed from yesterday, take Mike Rogers’ piece. Rogers is former chair of the House Intelligence Committee. Read it and decided who has the better argument. Rogers says Iran helped Hamas build up to some 30,000 rockets and mortars, especially the most advanced. And the article names and quotes Hamas officials crediting Iran for its support. Rogers says, “Iran’s policies in the Middle East have done nothing but bring ruin to the region, destabilize our allies and foment violence in areas that need assistance and support, not more arms and munitions. “Iran’s destabilizing role has been exposed in Gaza,” Mike Rogers, op-ed, The Hill, May 27, 2021.
“Iranian agents linked to terrorist plot in Sweden against dissidents,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post,” May 27, 2021.
“Alarmists, including current Secretary of State Antony Blinken, warned that delivering on a decades-old promise to move the US embassy to Jerusalem would set fire to a regional tinderbox. Many of the same detractors said taking Iranian terrorist leader Qasem Soleimani off the battlefield would spark a war. In both cases, the opposite happened. Our potential partners, Arabs and Jews alike, saw that it was possible to break out of antiquated molds and approach old problems with new ideas – and would-be troublemakers realized there were real consequences to malign actions.” See “Ex-US intel chief to ‘Post’: Biden is surrendering to Iran,” John Ratcliffe, Jerusalem Post, May 27, 2021.
“How Hamas Is Strengthening the Turkey-Iran-Qatar Axis,” Maya Carlin, National Interest, May 27, 2021.
The selected and very limited options for the next presidential election bode poorly for the country. “The Islamic Republic’s Republic Is Dying,” Sina Toossi, Foreign Policy, May 27, 2021.
