Of course, this blog relies on open sources and my interpretation of them. So just recently I posted that not much had changed in Iran’s level of involvement in Syria and the that part of the Shia Crescent was still as active as ever as Iran continued to pour in resources. But here is significant news that Israel is passing on to the world, and doesn’t mind Iranian citizens’ hearing. And information the Regime of course already knows. Iran’s economic woes, worsened by the coronavirus crisis, have limited Tehran’s ability to support Hezbollah and other militias in Syria since 2011 when Iran first sent in snipers to shoot civilian protesters. According to a 2018 report in Foreign Policy, Iran has 11 bases around the country, another 9 bases for their militia forces in southern Aleppo, Homs, and Deir Ezzor as well as another 15 bases belonging to Hezbollah. Iran has spent over $30 billion and lost over 2,000 troops in Syria. So it is really good to read in several sources below that Iran has now had to cut back. We can certainly credit the significant increase of airstrikes blamed on Israel which has influenced Iran to reduce forces and decrease weapons smuggling by air. Finally, the significance of this story is not just the counting of Iranian soldiers, armaments, missile components, etc. in Syria that have been decreasing per Israel and the U.S. The other significance is the world seeing that Iran is in Syria for no good reason, and also that Iran has to admit that has no reason to be there other than expansion of the Revolution. See “Senior defense official: Iran reducing presence in Syria,” Anna Ahronheim, Jerusalem Post, May 5, 2020. See also, “Iran Significantly Reducing Forces in Syria, Israeli Defense Official Says,” Yaniv Kubovich, Haaertz, May 5, 2020. The government of Israel has identified a significant reduction in the number of Iranian forces in Syria. Iran has been evacuating military bases near the border with Israel since the start of the coronavirus outbreak. Israel attributes this to damage incurred by Israeli attacks and to Iran’s economic crisis. Israel believes that Syrian Pres. Assad understands Iran has become a burden, and that he pays a high price for its presence. I believe Israel has been communicating this to him for some time, explicitly. Syria’s anti-aircraft batteries have certainly taken a beating.
In trying to assess if Iran is “normalizing” its behavior, either due to goodwill, a change in heart, recognizing the advantages of the West, the effect of U.S. sanctions, reaction to coronavirus, budget cuts due to mismanagement and corruption, or a change in religious beliefs, loss of support from Russia or China—the list of possibilities is long—here is an interesting story from the overnight attacks in Syria most likely by Israel. This article alone cites some of the many ways Iran is currently involved in Syria and Lebanon, the tip of the spear for the Shia Crescent, and an indication that Iran continues to shift funds and men and weapons to this front and is not yet moderating its behavior. Here are some quotes: “Iran-linked arms warehouses east of Aleppo in northern Syria and militia bases in Deir Ezzor in the east of the country”, “defense laboratory is believed by Western intelligence services to be used in the development of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime with help from Iran.”, “Iran-backed militias have established a number of bases and headquarters in the Aleppo area, as well as warehouses for storing advanced munitions.”, “missiles and ammunition belonging to the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group.”, “military airfield outside Damascus killed four pro-Iranian fighters”, “Iranian-linked command centers”, “warehouse outside of Palmyra and the entrance to an underground facility near Damascus”, “Iran’s presence in Syria, where it is fighting in support of President Bashar Assad”, “Tehran seeks to establish a permanent foothold along Israel’s northern borders”, “Iran from providing the Lebanon-based Hezbollah terror group with advanced weaponry, specifically precision-guided missiles.” See the article at “Strikes attributed to Israel hit Iran-linked defense labs, Shiite militia bases,” Judah Ari Gross, Times of Israel, May 5, 2020.
This is the first time in months that the Foreign Ministry has indicated willingness to trade hostages for U.S. prisoners. Probably the Supreme Leader is seeing coronavirus as an opportunity to get some Iranians home (who have been charged with assisting the Regime in various ways). The pain on the Iranian-held hostages has been afflicted, and there are always more hostages that can be taken. “Spokesman Says Iran Still Prepared For Prisoner Exchange With US, Europe,” Radio Farda, May 4, 2020. Here is a related story. “Iran Official Says Five Military Personnel Are In Jail Abroad, Blames The US,” Radio Farda, May 5, 2020.
“Iran’s Trade Balance With Asian Partners Negative For First Time,” Dalga Khatinoglu, Radio Farda, May 5, 2020.
“Coronavirus returns long-banned drive-in movies to Iran,” Mehdi Fattahi and Nasser Karimi, AP, Star Tribune, May 5, 2020.
63 died Monday. “Iran death toll from new coronavirus outbreak rises by 63 to 6,340: health ministry official,” Reuters, May 5, 2020.
“Facebook says it dismantles disinformation network tied to Iran’s state media,” Jack Stubbs and Katie Paul, Reuters, May 5, 2020.
180 former judges join 12,000 lawyers opposing move by the Supreme Leader to quash the Bar Association. “Ex-Judges Join Lawyers In Rejecting Move To Dismantle Iran Bar Association,” Radio Farda, May 5, 2020.
“Iran Atomic Inspections Continued at a Record Pace Last Year,” Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg, May 5, 2020.
“Pressure Increases On Prominent Rights Defender In Iran Prison,” Radio Farda, May 5, 2020.
Hundreds of Mahan Air flights to and from China across the Middle East. Flight staff had Covid, one pilot died from Covid. See “Sanctioned Iran airline flew first cases of coronavirus into Mideast,” Benjamin Weinthal, Jerusalem Post, May 5, 2020.
What?! So Iran’s has been at this for more than 5 years. “Iran’s state broadcaster meddled in Scottish referendum, says Facebook,” Michael Safi, Guardian, May 5, 2020.
See “U.S. expected to deport Iranian professor acquitted of sanctions busting: officials,” Humeyra Pamuk, Ted Hesson, Reuters, May 5, 2020.
