“How Iran Changed War: The Lessons of Tehran’s Use of Precise Mass,” Foreign Affairs, 9-25-26. “But more than six months later, the Iranian regime not only remains intact; it is perhaps stronger than before. It immediately replaced lost officials and struck back at Washington and its regional partners. And it shuttered the Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices around the world and winning newfound political leverage—all to the great frustration of U.S. officials. There are several reasons why Iran performed surprisingly well. For one, the country had long planned for American and Israeli attacks, so it was prepared to reconstitute its government when top leaders were killed. It was also able to import enough goods to keep its economy from completely collapsing despite a U.S. naval blockade. But one of the most significant factors is that the Islamic Republic had built up a large arsenal of cheap yet accurate drones and missiles. These munitions made Iran’s counterattacks effective and allowed it to close the strait—and thus deter American escalation. In doing so, Iran has demonstrated something broader. The age of what I called precise mass—or high-volume, low-cost, precision-guided weapons—is well underway. It is no longer possible for the U.S. military, or any military, to win a full-blown war simply by using small numbers of exquisite weapons to dazzle opponents. Weaker countries can match stronger ones through offensive barrages. Offense is currently cheaper than defense: the price of effective interceptors has yet to fall to the level of attack drones and missiles, which means defending against precise mass is extremely costly. After all, militaries cannot endlessly block salvos of $35,000 Shahed-136 attack drones with $4 million Patriot missiles.” Two things—this is not an impossible situation for the allies but we should note they did not want to put armies on the ground. Second, the article doesn’t point out that the Supreme Leader model has been shattered, and we don’t even know if the Leader of the country is alive.
A reminder of the enabling. “GOP senators dismayed by Trump embrace of Xi after China helped Iran target US troops,” The Hill, 9-25-26.
Important news, and consistent with those who say that the Regime will never give up seeking a nuclear weapon (despite the false claims the former Leader forbid it via fatwa—that document was never produced). See “Iran rules out nuclear concessions even if US accepts Hormuz proposal,” Iran International, 9-25-26.
The air shutdown is taking effect. “Iran threatens regional air travel as US sanctions cut its flight links,” Iran Internation,” 9-25-26. More sweeping is this next important story. “A U.S. Arm-Twisting Campaign Is Cutting Iran Off From the Rest of the World,” WSJ, 9-25-26. The U.S. is finally, since 1979, getting serious about sanctions. Air Mahan closed, same with major banks, good news.
Which also gives the U.S. more time to produce munitions. “Trump Rejects Iran Ceasefire, Expects Renewed Bombing After Midterms,” WSJ, 9-25-26.