Iran Nation or Cause

Will there be a war to the north?  How far will Iran go?  Is the proxy Hezbollah willing?  “Explainer: Is the Hezbollah-Israel conflict about to spiral?,” Reuters, 6-5-24.

“UN nuclear agency’s board votes to censure Iran,” Politico, 6-5-24.  “Iran was rebuked for failing to cooperate with the watchdog.  …  The censure followed a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency a week ago that said Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, the latest in Tehran’s attempts to steadily exert pressure on the international community.  …  Twenty members voted for the resolution, while Russia and China opposed it, 12 abstained and one did not vote, according to diplomats. They spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the outcome of the closed-doors vote. The resolution was put forward by France, Germany and Britain.  …  Censure resolutions by the IAEA board are not legally binding but send a strong political and diplomatic message.”

“Iran, Russia, China issue joint statement on JCPOA,” Mehr, 6-5-24.

“Iran-Backed Hezbollah Raises the Stakes in Its War Against Israel,” Iran International, 6-5-24.

“UN nuclear agency’s board votes to censure Iran for failing to cooperate fully with the watchdog,” AP, 6-5-24.

“Jordanian officials, like their Western allies, say that Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group and pro-Iranian militias who control much of southern Syria are behind a surge in the multi-billion-dollar drugs and weapons trade. Iran and Hezbollah deny the allegations. U.N. experts and U.S. and European officials say the illicit drug trade finances a proliferation of pro-Iranian militias and Syrian pro-government paramilitary forces, after more than a decade of conflict in Syria.”  See “Jordan makes biggest drugs bust in years at border with Saudi Arabia,” VOA, 6-5-24.

“Iranian military adviser killed in Syria, reports say, two months after Iran and Israel came close to war,” CNN, 6-4-24.  “Abiyar is the first member of the IRGC to be reported killed by Israel since April, when Israel is suspected to have bombed the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.”

“US Court Finds Iran Guilty of Torturing Veteran Journalist,” Iran International, 6-4-24.

“Simin, a Christian Imprisoned for Leading a Church in Iran,” Missions Box, 6-4-24.

“Questions Begin as Registration of Candidates Ends in Iran,” Iran International, 6-3-24.  How many of 80 will the Guardian Council eliminate?  It is certainly not democratic.

Very rare story.  “Palestinian presidency criticizes Iran’s Khamenei publicly: What we know,” Al Monitor, 6-3-24.  Abbas and the Palestinians say Iran exploits them for its own purposes.

Qalibaf.  “Iran’s parliament speaker registers presidential bid,” VOA, 6-3-24.

“Iran’s foreign minister confirms Oman-brokered talks ongoing with US,” Times of Israel, 6-3-24.

One subject that Russia and China do not support Iran on, for Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs in the Persian Gulf.  “In rare clash with Iran, China reaffirms solidarity with UAE over disputed islands,” Al Monitor, 6-3-24.

The Guardian Council (controlled by the Ayatollah) is all that matters.  “Iran’s ex-president Ahmadinejad, disqualified Larijani sign up for election,” Al Jazeera, 6-2-24.

Like Russia, at least China won’t recognize that Iran owns the three islands in the Gulf.  “Iran’s foreign ministry summons Chinese ambassador in Tehran over Gulf Islands,” Reuters, 6-2-24.

“200 Days in Evin: British-Iranian Woman Jailed for Protesting,” Iran International, 6-2-24.

Iran has given its blessing to the current deal being discussed.  “The current ceasefire plan is a plan to keep Hamas in power. The result will be that Hamas will return to running most of Gaza in a year and the reconstruction effort will obviously empower Hamas as it has in the past, with Hamas partnering with the donors and then each house that is reconstructed will have a Hamas minder who plans the tunnel shaft entrance and where to place launchers in or near it…and so in a few years Hamas will be back to where it was on Oct 6. Not only that, but this plan will also result in Hamas likely exploiting the war to come to power in the West Bank within 10 years. Hezbollah will not be deterred and Israelis will have trouble returning to the north and south. The Houthis and Iran will be emboldened.”  See “Israel’s comprehensive proposal for Gaza hostage release revealed – report,” i24, 6-1-24.

“Female Hardliner Politician Registers to Run for Iran’s President,” Iran International,” 6-1-24.  “Former female lawmaker Zohreh Elahian has registered to run in Iran’s June 28 snap presidential vote, potentially becoming the first woman ever allowed to stand if approved by the Guardian Council.”

Probably an internally favored candidate.  “Senior Khamenei Official Enters Iran’s Presidential Race,” Iran International, 6-1-24.  “Vahid Haghanian, a prominent and mysterious figure within the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, has registered as a candidate for the upcoming presidential election. Haghanian, known for his elusive background and secretive role within the inner circles of the Iranian regime, has historically been a key player in facilitating the Supreme Leader’s directives across Iran’s military, cultural, economic, and political spheres.”

Ali Larijani.  “Former Iran parliament speaker registers for presidential vote after Raisi death,” Reuters, 5-31-24.

This is the first time a Supreme Ayatollah has ever declared U.S. students as agents of Iran and, openly and proudly, as terrorists.  “Iran Supreme Leader’s Direct Message to US College Students Sparks Fury,” Newsweek, 5-30-24.  “Iran’s Supreme Leader released a message of support for American college students who have participated in pro-Palestine protests.  “Dear university students in the United States of America, you are standing on the right side of history,” Ali Khamenei wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter. His comments sparked fury on social media, with several people suggesting that having support from the authoritarian leader was not a good thing. House Speaker Mike Johnson wrote on X: “When you’ve won the Ayatollah, you’ve lost America.” A popular right-wing X account, End Wokeness, wrote: “Imagine telling someone 10 years ago that the Iranian Supreme Leader would be thanking a bunch of blue-haired atheists at Columbia.” Several other X accounts, including the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs and the Orthodox rabbi and adjunct professor David Bashevkin, suggested that having Khamenei’s support might suggest the protesters are actually on the wrong side of history. Iran’s Supreme Leader also shared a piece of advice with American students, writing on X: “Dear university students in the US, my advice to you is to become familiar with the Quran.” Khamenei also released a longer open letter, in which he wrote that he wanted to express “empathy and solidarity” with student protesters. “You have now formed a branch of the Resistance Front and have begun an honorable struggle in the face of your government’s ruthless pressure—a government which openly supports the usurper and brutal Zionist regime,” he wrote. Khamenei also invoked antisemitic tropes about Jewish people controlling the media. “The global Zionist elite—who owns most US and European media corporations or influences them through funding and bribery—has labeled this courageous, humane resistance movement as “terrorism,” ” Khamenei wrote.

This is actually a 35+ year problem in Europe.  “Iran Behind Attacks on Israeli Embassies in NATO Countries: Mossad,” Newsweek, 5-30-24.

That the hall was almost empty should be a sign to the UN that its member states believe the UN made a mistake honoring the memory of the Butcher of Tehran.  “UN General Assembly Hall Empty During Raisi Memorial,” Iran International, 5-30-24.  And see 5-30-24 AFP, “Tribute to late Iranian president at UN stirs anger.”

“Mossad says Iran behind attacks on Israeli targets in Sweden, Belgium,” Al Monitor, 5-30-24.  “Foxtrot’s rival gang RUMBA was also allegedly recruited by Iran.  …  Fears ahead of Olympic Games in Paris.”  … Mossad Director David Barnea has been warning of Iranian attempts to target Israelis and Jews in Europe. In September, Barnea revealed that in 2023, his agency and other Israeli agencies and international partners had foiled 27 Iranian plots against Israelis around the world, on almost every continent, including in Tanzania, Georgia, Cyprus, Greece and Germany.”

“Iran’s Tasnim news agency: Iran made sea-launched ballistic missile available to Houthis,” Reuters, 5-29-24.

“Iran launches aggressive crackdown on women who defy strict Islamic dress code,” NPR, 5-29-24.

“Russia Uses Drones Carrying Newest Iranian Glide Bombs,” Kyiv Post, 5-28-24.

Where else in the world do you hear chants of “Death to America” during a funeral?  “Iran’s supreme leader leads prayers at Raisi funeral,” BBC, 5-22-24.

Nuclear bomb here we come.  Thus sayeth CRR and Brookings experts.  “What the Death of Iran’s President Really Means,” Politico, 5-22-24.