Iran Nation or Cause

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When Iran inserts a Regime member into American academia, these types of opinion pieces continue.  Many persons besides me continue to call on Princeton to divest itself from this person, Seyed Mousavian.  Here is the latest article, which makes the claim “Iran could seek another unifying president like Raisi”—he was anything but.  Just ask any Iranian or Syrian, or Lebanese citizen, let along Israeli or Yemeni or Saudi.  Or ask someone from Afghanistan or UAE.  Or how about Jordan.  Don’t forget Iraq.  And this is just the start, we haven’t touched Europe or North America. (Mousavian attempts to portray Raisi as a positive “unifier” for the Regime, bringing together a president who aligned the executive with the legislature and the Supreme Leader.  But this is anything but unity, as Mousavian does not address, that the Leader’s / Regime’s policies are deadly for Iranians and the region).  See the piece at “Ebrahim Raisi: The president’s death leaves Iran at a crossroads,” MEE, 5-21-24.

“Thousands on streets for Iranian president’s funeral after crash,” BBC, 5-21-24.

“Iran’s rulers crack down on expressions of joy at Raisi’s death,” VOA, 5-21-24.  “[S]everal citizens who reported being ordered by security agencies to remove online content expressing joy at Raisi’s demise.  The head of Iran’s cyber police had warned a day earlier that authorities were “carefully monitoring cyberspace” and advised citizens to refrain from publishing “provocative” content.”

“After Raisi’s Death, Elections Pose Tricky Test for Iran’s Rulers,” NYT, 5-21-24.

“The death of the president changes the power dynamics in Iran,” Economist, 5-21-24.

“Who is Ali Bagheri Kani, Iran’s acting foreign minister?,” Al Jazeera, 5-21-24.

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“Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi dead in helicopter crash; Mohammad Mokhber now acting president,” AL.com, 5-20-24.  Another loss to the Regime is the FM, Hossein Amirabdollahian, which will put a damper on their nuclear and proxies portfolio.  The Quds Force is reeling for the moment.  Remember, aircraft and helicopters in Iran have parts shortage, but NOT because of U.S. and Western sanctions—those are decisions the Regime makes.  The Regime has plenty of money for want they want to spend on (i.e., proxies, drones, nuclear program, Hamas support), and most important because their own actions and support of terrorism earned them those sanctions.  Stop being a pariah and a Shia Revolution, and act as a normal country, and those sanctions will be lifted.  So in this article it is no surprise to hear “former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sought to blame the United States for the crash in an interview Monday. “One of the main culprits of yesterday’s tragedy is the United States, which … embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities,” Zarif said. “These will be recorded in the list of US crimes against the Iranian people.””

So, who is this interim president?  “Iranian vice presidents are relatively low profile. But Mokhber has already caught the attention of the Biden administration for his role in supplying drones and missiles to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine. In October 2022, Mokhber was one of a delegation of senior Iranian officials who traveled to Moscow to finalize a sale of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles to Moscow. U.S. officials have condemned Iran’s provision of arms to Russia, particularly the drones that Russia uses to target Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. A former member of the medical corps of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, Mokhber is a conservative politician with deep ties to the supreme leader, according to media reports. He held senior positions in Setad, a conglomerate controlled by Khamenei that was involved in efforts to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, as well as the Mostazafan Foundation, a charity also controlled by Khameni that is sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department.”  Setad and the Foundation have stolen from the people and minority groups.  Mokhber doesn’t have clean hands.  See “The one thing US fears after Iranian president’s death,” Politico, 5-20-24.

Correct statement.  “President Raisi’s death a perilous moment for Iran regime – but don’t expect a change to foreign policy,” Sky News, 5-20-24.

“‘Protector of the resistance’: Iran’s allies, proxy terror groups mourn Raisi’s death,” Times of Israel, 5-20-24.

“The helicopter crashed because of a “technical failure,” the IRNA state news agency said.”  Another disputed statement.  See “What We Know About the Helicopter Crash That Killed Iran’s President,” NYT, 5-20-24.  Also see this story for a striking picture of the Western dressed president and assistants from Azerbaijan who are wearing coat and ties, and the representatives from Iran who refuse to wear ties because they believe they are symbolic of the decadent West.  Another striking aspect of this NYT story is that the NYT gave no credit to Turkey for its drone locating the crash site from its heat and passing the coordinates to the Iranian rescuers, who presumably would have continued searching for a day or two.

Turkey found the helicopter for Iran.  “Turkey says helicopter carrying Iran’s Raisi did not emit transponder signal, adds Turkish drone used to find wreckage,” IntelliNews, 5-20-24.

“Why Iran Believes It’s Winning Against Israel,” FP, 5-20-24.

“Ali Bagheri-Kani, who has close family ties with Khamenei and previously led Iran’s delegation in nuclear talks with the West, was appointed acting foreign minister.”  See “Iranian President, Foreign Minister Killed in Helicopter Crash,” WSJ, 5-20-24.

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“President Raisi’s helicopter crashes in Iran: What we know so far,” Al Jazeera, 5-19-24.  “Travelling with Ebrahim Raisi were Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province Governor Malek Rahmati, and Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, the representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to East Azerbaijan, according to state media. Where did the helicopter fall? It fell in the Dizmar Protected Area, a wildlife corridor across the border with Azerbaijan. State TV initially said the helicopter fell near Jolfa, a city on the border with Azerbaijan but later it put it farther east near the village of Uzi.”  … “… where his helicopter went down, while the rest of the convoy continued.”  What?!  The president of the country’s copter goes down and the others don’t stay or at a minimum mark the spot?

Per Iranian Constitution Art. 131, the first vice president becomes acting president if the president is incapacitated (and if the supreme leader approves).  The next president is elected in 50 days.  The first vice president is Muhammad Mukhbar.

“Official says rescuers see helicopter that was carrying Iran’s president, others at a distance,” AP, 5-19-24.  It is more than 12 hours after the crash, on the side of a mountain.  Rescuers still have not arrived.

BTW, since taking office in 2021, Raisi has tightened morality laws against women, was in charge during another bloody crackdown on anti-government  protesters, and oversaw the continuation of Iran’s nuclear program and its enriching uranium close to weapons-grade levels.  They also supplied missiles and bomb-carrying drones to Russia for use against Ukraine.  And don’t forget Hamas and the attacks on Israel, including Hezbollah to the north since Oct. 2023 and via proxies throughout the Middle East.  And then there’s the unprecedented huge missile and drone attack on Israel.  He’s been busy.

“Saudi Arabia has long relied — like other Gulf Arab nations — on the U.S. to be the security guarantor for the wider Middle East as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program in recent years have spilled over into a series of attacks. The proposal now being discussed likely would deepen that, and also reportedly includes access to advanced weapons and possibly trade deals as well. Saudi Arabia has also pushed for nuclear cooperation in the deal that includes America allowing it to enrich uranium in the kingdom — something that worries nonproliferation experts, as spinning centrifuges opens the door to a possible weapons program. Prince Mohammed has said the kingdom would pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran had one. Iran in recent weeks has increasingly threatened it could do so.”  See “Biden national security adviser, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince discuss security deal,” Politico, 5-19-24.

Over and over we were told it was a “hard landing.”  That repeated statement was misleading or even a lie, reflecting how government orders are handled by state media.  See BBC, “Iran president helicopter in hard landing – state media,” 5-19-24.

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“Jordan foils Iranian plot to carry out sabotage operations with weapons,” Ammon, 5-15-24.  “Reuters also quoted two Jordanian sources as saying that Jordan has foiled a suspected Iranian-led plot to smuggle weapons into the U.S.-allied kingdom to help opponents of the ruling monarchy carry out acts of sabotage.  The weapons were sent by Iranian-backed militias in Syria to a cell of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan that has links to the military wing of Palestinian group Hamas, the people told Reuters.  They said the plot’s aim was to destabilize Jordan, adding that the cache was seized when members of the cell were arrested in late March.  …  Another senior figure in Brotherhood, who also requested anonymity, told Reuters the arrested cell members had been recruited by Hamas chief Saleh al-Arouri, who masterminded the Palestinian group’s operations in the West Bank from exile in Lebanon.  Spokespeople for the Jordanian government and the U.S. Department of Defense declined to comment.  A diplomat close to Tehran said the Iranian ambition to establish a proxy foothold in Jordan went back to Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards who was assassinated by the U.S. in 2020.  Soleimani believed that given Jordan’s strong ties with the U.S. and the West, building up an allied group there capable of fighting Israel was crucial to Tehran’s strategic ascendancy in the region, the diplomat told Reuters.”  See also “’Jordan thwarts Iranian plot to smuggle weapons across its territory,’ reports Reuters,” Roya, 5-15-24.

“Exclusive: US intelligence spotted Chinese, Iranian deepfakes in 2020 aimed at influencing US voters,” CNN, 5-15-24.

By intimidation and threats does Iran sometimes act, or make these claims without statements by the other state.  “Iran is seeking closer ties to Egypt – analysis,” FDD, 5-15-24.

“‘A huge question’: IAEA chief alarmed by Iran’s talk of developing nuclear weapons,” Times of Israel, 5-15-24.

“Iran’s Drive to Build a Nuclear Bomb Is Gaining Momentum,” Newsweek, 5-15-24.

$3.7 Billion.  “Iran Ex-minister Sentenced To Jail For Graft: State Media,” AFP, 5-15-24.

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Alinejad has been the target of assassination by the Regime for her calls for human rights and opposing authoritarianism.  “‘One Solution, Revolution,’ Iranian Dissident Tells Copenhagen Democracy Summit,” Iran International, 5-14-24.

“Israeli Insider Reveals Motivation Behind Last Month’s Strike in Iran,” Iran International, 5-14-24.

“US calls on Iran to halt unprecedented weapons transfers to Yemen’s Houthis for attacks on ships,” AP, 5-14-24.

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“The Attack on Iran’s IRGC Leaders in Damascus and the Iranian Attack on Israel: An Iranian View,” Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 5-12-24.

It is hard to believe the reports out of Washington on 5-12, that the U.S. will withhold intelligence if Israel invades broadly in Rafah.  Already Pres. Biden and Sec. Blinken and NSA Sullivan are indefinitely holding smart bombs from being send to Israel to be used against the Iran-backed Hamas.  What is instead accurate is what Sen. Tom Cotton, who serves on the Armed Services Committee, says regarding the State Department report “was very clear: there is no evidence that Israel is violating international law.”  [speaking of whether Israel is using U.S. weapons against civilians].  He said Israel “is doing more than any military in history to prevent civilian casualties.”  See “Blinken: Israel offensive on Rafah would not eliminate Hamas,” AFP, 5-12-24.  That the Administration does not understand how the 1,200 killed in only half a day by Hamas compares with the 35,000 killed (about half of them Hamas) over seven months is also worth noting in light of Cotton’s broadly-accepted views.

The Biden administration reportedly also says it can give information on locations of secret tunnels in Gaza used by Hamas as an incentive to Israel not to enter Gaza’s southernmost city.  What?  And the Administration is said offering intel on Hamas leaders’ whereabouts if Israel drops its planned major Rafah op.  What?  Israel can’t respond to Hamas and Iran this way, nor would any other country.  See “US said offering intel on Hamas leaders’ whereabouts if Israel drops major Rafah op,” Times of Israel, 5-12-24.