Masked men and three white vans seen in the middle of the night seen by a farmer heading for RAF Fairford, where the public can get very close to B-1s and B-52s due to the set-up of the base. The men are British nationals, live in London, mid-20s. Not identified publicly yet. In fact, little has been revealed yet. In July, the IRGC had threatened any base anywhere if involved in Iran attacks. One last thing to mention—Iran has often world-wide hired local thugs to do its assassinations and bombings, men who are not the brightest of criminals. Wearing a mask while driving a van near an important air base is not very smart. “U.K. holds 5 British suspects after arrests near U.S. air base as Iran denies role,” NPR, AP, 9-28-26.
I’ll say. “Release of 5 Men in U.K. Prompts New Questions Over Possible Terror Plot,” NYT, 9-28-26. I’ve got no idea how any confessions could have been checked out this quickly, and the UK could hold them for 14 days. And if there were no confessions, they shouldn’t have been released so quickly. Keystone Cops? And do you remember this blog’s recording of the below-story from 9-24? “Britain warns Iran it will not tolerate hostile activity on UK soil,” Reuters, 9-24-26. And you hold while you probe, you don’t give them a chance to flee. BTW, what do their interrogations reveal about the plot? “5 men arrested near a US-run air base are bailed as UK police probe whether there’s a link to Iran,” AP, 9-28-26.
“Saudi Arabia is reaping a massive oil windfall, making it perhaps the Iran war’s only winner. Tehran’s proxies actually ‘did Saudi a favor’,” Fortune, 9-28-26.
The most important news of the day. “Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran’s Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down,” WSJ, 9-28-26. “The U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have become better at fending off or evading Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers to cross the strait. Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February, oil data trackers say. Shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of their prewar regional flows as of last week, according to tracker Kpler. So far this month, crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the U.A.E. and others—moving through Hormuz and alternative routes—have risen to almost 13 million barrels a day. That is the highest total since February, when the region exported nearly 19 million barrels a day, according to ship tracker Huax. … Iran, by contrast, has been unable to move crude through Hormuz since the U.S. reinstated its maritime blockade in July. The stores of oil that Iran had stockpiled beyond the blockade could run out by mid-October, Kpler estimates, choking off a vital source of revenue as the country’s economy buckles under the pressure of sanctions and the strain of war. The shift weakens Tehran’s ability to extract concessions by holding global energy supplies hostage, undercutting one of its most potent sources of leverage in talks to wind down the conflict. But it also creates a dangerous incentive. With its own oil income dwindling and its neighbors finding workarounds, Iran might see renewed attacks as its best remaining means of applying pressure, even at the risk of American retaliation. … After the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February, Iran’s attacks on the strait severely disrupted shipping and forced Gulf producers to look for workarounds. Saudi Arabia diverted crude across the desert to the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates used its pipeline to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, but those didn’t fill the gap. Oil prices rose and with them the cost of gasoline and diesel for American consumers. Iran used that leverage to cut a deal with President Trump in June that promised upfront financial relief for reopening the waterway. That deal fell apart when Iran started attacking commercial ships in the strait. [Miscalculation by hardliners] … Meanwhile, the volume of Iranian crude already on vessels outside the blockade—which is still generating revenue for Tehran—has fallen to around 15 million barrels from 29 million barrels in early September. Kpler expects those barrels, most of which are destined for China, to be depleted by early to mid-October at the current pace. “Probably within the next two weeks…they are going to make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then they will have nothing,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday on Fox News.”
“Iran under scrutiny after plot foiled near UK base used by US military,” Fox News, 9-28-26.
