by guest blogger, Dr. Ryan Jessup
Below is our final ranking dotplot for the season. Note how Alabama ends the season way beyond the other teams, teams 2-4 are grouped together, followed by another large break after the 11th team, LSU.
Although Navy’s loss to Army for the first time in more than a decade was a surprise, our rankings did not see them as a top 40 team anyway, so the surprise was rather mild.
The final network graph (below) demonstrates the inter- and intra-conference play (the lines connecting the dots) as well as the relative strengths of the teams within their conferences via the dot size.
Lastly, below are our predicted winners and win margins for 40 of the 41 bowl games. All of these bowls are assumed to be at neutral sites, so, for example, the Hawaii Bowl win margin does not adjust for Hawaii’s homefield advantage (a 5.25 point adjustment). After the two national semi-finals have been played we will return to predict by how much Alabama will win.
| Date | Team One | Team Two | Bowl Game | JP Favorite | Win Margin |
| 2016-12-17 | UTSA | New Mexico | GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL | New Mexico | 0.75 |
| 2016-12-17 | San Diego State | Houston | LAS VEGAS BOWL PRESENTED BY GEICO | Houston | 18.75 |
| 2016-12-17 | Toledo | Appalachian State | RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL | Toledo | 2.25 |
| 2016-12-17 | Arkansas State | UCF | AUTONATION CURE BOWL | UCF | 0.75 |
| 2016-12-18 | Louisiana Lafayette | Southern Miss | R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL | Southern Miss | 2.25 |
| 2016-12-19 | Tulsa | Central Michigan | MIAMI BEACH BOWL | Tulsa | 11.75 |
| 2016-12-21 | Western Kentucky | Memphis | BOCA RATON BOWL | Western Kentucky | 7.75 |
| 2016-12-22 | Wyoming | BYU | SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL | BYU | 7.75 |
| 2016-12-23 | Colorado State | Idaho | FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL | Colorado State | 18.75 |
| 2016-12-23 | Old Dominion | Eastern Michigan | POPEYES BAHAMAS BOWL | Eastern Michigan | 3.75 |
| 2016-12-23 | Navy | Louisiana Tech | LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL | Navy | 8.25 |
| 2016-12-24 | Troy | Ohio | DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL | Troy | 0.75 |
| 2016-12-25 | Middle Tennessee | Hawaii | HAWAII BOWL | Middle Tennessee | 8.25 |
| 2016-12-26 | Mississippi State | Miami (OH) | ST. PETERSBURG BOWL | Mississippi State | 15.75 |
| 2016-12-26 | Boston College | Maryland | QUICK LANE BOWL | Maryland | 3.75 |
| 2016-12-26 | Vanderbilt | NC State | CAMPING WORLD INDEPENDENCE BOWL | Vanderbilt | 7.75 |
| 2016-12-27 | North Texas | Army | ZAXBY’S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL | Army | 10 |
| 2016-12-27 | Wake Forest | Temple | MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHROP GRUMMAN | Temple | 23.75 |
| 2016-12-28 | Washington State | Minnesota | NATIONAL FUNDING HOLIDAY BOWL | Washington State | 5.75 |
| 2016-12-28 | Baylor | Boise State | MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL | Boise State | 18.75 |
| 2016-12-28 | Northwestern | Pittsburgh | NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL | Northwestern | 3.75 |
| 2016-12-28 | Miami | West Virginia | RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL | Miami | 18.75 |
| 2016-12-29 | Utah | Indiana | FOSTER FARMS BOWL | Utah | 10 |
| 2016-12-29 | Kansas State | Texas A&M | ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL | Texas A&M | 18.75 |
| 2016-12-29 | South Carolina | South Florida | BIRMINGHAM BOWL | South Florida | 14.75 |
| 2016-12-29 | Virginia Tech | Arkansas | BELK BOWL | Virginia Tech | 18.75 |
| 2016-12-30 | Colorado | Oklahoma State | VALERO ALAMO BOWL | Colorado | 27.25 |
| 2016-12-30 | TCU | Georgia | AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL | Georgia | 8.25 |
| 2016-12-30 | North Carolina | Stanford | HYUNDAI SUN BOWL | Stanford | 8.25 |
| 2016-12-30 | Tennessee | Nebraska | FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL | Tennessee | 3.75 |
| 2016-12-30 | Air Force | South Alabama | NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL | Air Force | 11.75 |
| 2016-12-31 | Florida State | Michigan | CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL | Michigan | 34.25 |
| 2016-12-31 | Louisville | LSU | BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL | LSU | 11.75 |
| 2016-12-31 | Kentucky | Georgia Tech | TAXSLAYER BOWL | Georgia Tech | 1.75 |
| 2016-12-31 | Alabama | Washington | CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL – CFP SEMIFINAL | Alabama | 39.25 |
| 2017-01-01 | Clemson | Ohio State | PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL – CFP SEMIFINAL | Ohio State | 23.75 |
| 2017-01-02 | Iowa | Florida | OUTBACK BOWL | Iowa | 1.75 |
| 2017-01-02 | Wisconsin | Western Michigan | GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC | Wisconsin | 20.75 |
| 2017-01-02 | Penn State | USC | ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL | Penn State | 0.75 |
| 2017-01-03 | Oklahoma | Auburn | ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL | Auburn | 11.75 |
| 2017-01-10 | TBD | TBD | CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME | TBD |