by M. C. Jennings | Dec 16, 2016 | Academics, COBA Faculty, Current Students, Research, Uncategorized
by guest blogger, Dr. Ryan Jessup
Below is our final ranking dotplot for the season. Note how Alabama ends the season way beyond the other teams, teams 2-4 are grouped together, followed by another large break after the 11th team, LSU.
Although Navy’s loss to Army for the first time in more than a decade was a surprise, our rankings did not see them as a top 40 team anyway, so the surprise was rather mild.
The final network graph (below) demonstrates the inter- and intra-conference play (the lines connecting the dots) as well as the relative strengths of the teams within their conferences via the dot size.
Lastly, below are our predicted winners and win margins for 40 of the 41 bowl games. All of these bowls are assumed to be at neutral sites, so, for example, the Hawaii Bowl win margin does not adjust for Hawaii’s homefield advantage (a 5.25 point adjustment). After the two national semi-finals have been played we will return to predict by how much Alabama will win.
| Date |
Team One |
Team Two |
Bowl Game |
JP Favorite |
Win Margin |
| 2016-12-17 |
UTSA |
New Mexico |
GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL |
New Mexico |
0.75 |
| 2016-12-17 |
San Diego State |
Houston |
LAS VEGAS BOWL PRESENTED BY GEICO |
Houston |
18.75 |
| 2016-12-17 |
Toledo |
Appalachian State |
RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL |
Toledo |
2.25 |
| 2016-12-17 |
Arkansas State |
UCF |
AUTONATION CURE BOWL |
UCF |
0.75 |
| 2016-12-18 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
Southern Miss |
R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL |
Southern Miss |
2.25 |
| 2016-12-19 |
Tulsa |
Central Michigan |
MIAMI BEACH BOWL |
Tulsa |
11.75 |
| 2016-12-21 |
Western Kentucky |
Memphis |
BOCA RATON BOWL |
Western Kentucky |
7.75 |
| 2016-12-22 |
Wyoming |
BYU |
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL |
BYU |
7.75 |
| 2016-12-23 |
Colorado State |
Idaho |
FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL |
Colorado State |
18.75 |
| 2016-12-23 |
Old Dominion |
Eastern Michigan |
POPEYES BAHAMAS BOWL |
Eastern Michigan |
3.75 |
| 2016-12-23 |
Navy |
Louisiana Tech |
LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL |
Navy |
8.25 |
| 2016-12-24 |
Troy |
Ohio |
DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL |
Troy |
0.75 |
| 2016-12-25 |
Middle Tennessee |
Hawaii |
HAWAII BOWL |
Middle Tennessee |
8.25 |
| 2016-12-26 |
Mississippi State |
Miami (OH) |
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL |
Mississippi State |
15.75 |
| 2016-12-26 |
Boston College |
Maryland |
QUICK LANE BOWL |
Maryland |
3.75 |
| 2016-12-26 |
Vanderbilt |
NC State |
CAMPING WORLD INDEPENDENCE BOWL |
Vanderbilt |
7.75 |
| 2016-12-27 |
North Texas |
Army |
ZAXBY’S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL |
Army |
10 |
| 2016-12-27 |
Wake Forest |
Temple |
MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHROP GRUMMAN |
Temple |
23.75 |
| 2016-12-28 |
Washington State |
Minnesota |
NATIONAL FUNDING HOLIDAY BOWL |
Washington State |
5.75 |
| 2016-12-28 |
Baylor |
Boise State |
MOTEL 6 CACTUS BOWL |
Boise State |
18.75 |
| 2016-12-28 |
Northwestern |
Pittsburgh |
NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL |
Northwestern |
3.75 |
| 2016-12-28 |
Miami |
West Virginia |
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL |
Miami |
18.75 |
| 2016-12-29 |
Utah |
Indiana |
FOSTER FARMS BOWL |
Utah |
10 |
| 2016-12-29 |
Kansas State |
Texas A&M |
ADVOCARE V100 TEXAS BOWL |
Texas A&M |
18.75 |
| 2016-12-29 |
South Carolina |
South Florida |
BIRMINGHAM BOWL |
South Florida |
14.75 |
| 2016-12-29 |
Virginia Tech |
Arkansas |
BELK BOWL |
Virginia Tech |
18.75 |
| 2016-12-30 |
Colorado |
Oklahoma State |
VALERO ALAMO BOWL |
Colorado |
27.25 |
| 2016-12-30 |
TCU |
Georgia |
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL |
Georgia |
8.25 |
| 2016-12-30 |
North Carolina |
Stanford |
HYUNDAI SUN BOWL |
Stanford |
8.25 |
| 2016-12-30 |
Tennessee |
Nebraska |
FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL |
Tennessee |
3.75 |
| 2016-12-30 |
Air Force |
South Alabama |
NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL |
Air Force |
11.75 |
| 2016-12-31 |
Florida State |
Michigan |
CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL |
Michigan |
34.25 |
| 2016-12-31 |
Louisville |
LSU |
BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL |
LSU |
11.75 |
| 2016-12-31 |
Kentucky |
Georgia Tech |
TAXSLAYER BOWL |
Georgia Tech |
1.75 |
| 2016-12-31 |
Alabama |
Washington |
CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL – CFP SEMIFINAL |
Alabama |
39.25 |
| 2017-01-01 |
Clemson |
Ohio State |
PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL – CFP SEMIFINAL |
Ohio State |
23.75 |
| 2017-01-02 |
Iowa |
Florida |
OUTBACK BOWL |
Iowa |
1.75 |
| 2017-01-02 |
Wisconsin |
Western Michigan |
GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC |
Wisconsin |
20.75 |
| 2017-01-02 |
Penn State |
USC |
ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL |
Penn State |
0.75 |
| 2017-01-03 |
Oklahoma |
Auburn |
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL |
Auburn |
11.75 |
| 2017-01-10 |
TBD |
TBD |
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME |
TBD |
|
by M. C. Jennings | Dec 7, 2016 | Academics, COBA Faculty, Current Students, Research, Uncategorized
by guest blogger, Dr. Ryan Jessup
The bowls are all set as 14 weeks of the NCAA football season have passed with only one game remaining: Army vs. Navy, to be held this upcoming Saturday.
Our model ends with the same team on top that we had all season, Alabama, who ESPN and 538 acknowledge as the best college football team of all time. Ohio State and Michigan remain 2nd and 3rd, respectively, but, thanks in part to Wisconsin’s loss and Washington’s crushing of Colorado, the Huskies move into our 4th spot. Clemson is our 8th ranked team, behind Wisconsin, Penn State, and USC, respectively. No. 12 Western Michigan is our highest ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences and Oklahoma is our highest ranked Big 12 team, at #18. As Don Pope pointed out last week, the Big 12 looks more like a Group of 5 conference than a Power 5 conference this year.
Next week, after the Army-Navy game, we will give our projections for all 40+ bowl games. My grad school alma mater, Indiana, will play in the Foster Farms Bowl. That’s how you know you’ve hit the big time, why mess around with crummy bowls like the Rose or Sugar when you can throw a pigskin sponsored by a chicken.
by M. C. Jennings | Nov 28, 2016 | Academics, COBA Faculty, COBA Staff, Current Students, Research, Uncategorized
by guest blogger, Dr. Don Pope
Well, sports fans, it was another exciting weekend of college football. Several traditional big rivalry match-ups were played, the most notable being Michigan versus “The Ohio State University”. The two schools up in Okie-land delayed their annual “Bedlam” rivalry game until this coming weekend so they could focus on the turkey and dressing last week.
The first of the following figures shows our adjusted rankings after week 13.
Note that, as before, Alabama stands out way above the rest, followed by Ohio State and Michigan after their close game, then another Big 10 team, Wisconsin, and the remainder of the top 50 teams.
The second of the figures is a network representation of college football this season, with the dots representing the teams in the various conferences, or independents. The lines represent games played, both within conference and between conferences. The size of the dots reflects their rankings in our system. The large red dot in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) is Alabama, and 3 the large red dots in the Big 10 are Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The sad tale of these figures is the demise of the Big 12. They seem to have forgotten that, after your team scores, you are supposed to put 11 other guys out on the field whose objective is to stop the other team from scoring. Our rankings place many schools from many conferences above any school in the Big 12. Thus, we do not predict the Big 12 teams this year to perform very well in bowl games, assuming that they get invited to any bowl game more significant than the Captain Crunch Breakfast Cereal Bowl.
Stay tuned for next week!
by M. C. Jennings | Nov 22, 2016 | Academics, COBA Faculty, Current Students, Research
by guest blogger, Noah Bastable
The most notable game this week happened on Thursday when the Houston Cougars beat Louisville in a tumbling loss for the Cardinals as they fell down from #5 to #14, even though both teams have a 9-2 record. This is, in part, how the Jessup-Pope College Football Rankings (much like life) works. If you notice the bottom 6 teams on the chart, their PageRank scores do not differ as much as the top 4 teams. Even the difference between Alabama and Ohio State is huge. This just goes to show it’s easy to get to the top, but it is hard to stay on top (even though Alabama may say otherwise).
The University of Houston Cougars were previously ranked #46 and are now ranked #17 on the Jessup Pope College Football Ranking system.
We hope that everybody has a great week off of school and work and enjoys their Thanksgiving meals, perhaps while watching the 9-1 Cowboys face the Redskins on Thanksgiving day.
by M. C. Jennings | Nov 15, 2016 | Academics, COBA Faculty, Research, Uncategorized
by guest blogger, Dr. Don Pope
Well sports fans, it was one of those weeks. 3 of the top 4 CFP ranked teams went down in flames to defeat, as well as my dear old Texas Aggies. Since the top 4 CFP ranked teams end up in the most significant bowl games and play each other for the unofficial (not recognized by the NCAA) national championship, then we are going to see a scramble for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked teams at the end of the regular season. That assumes, of course, that Alabama remains in their overwhelming number 1 ranked position, which is surely to occur unless their team bus blows an engine and they fail to show at their remaining games. Our rankings did not change a great deal from the previous week (week 10) to week 11 (shown below).
This is due to several factors: first, our algorithm is not bothered by a “defeat” as much as other rankings, as in the case of Michigan only losing by 1 point on the road against Iowa. Secondly, our rankings were never as excited about Clemson and Washington as other rankings had been. Our rankings, after the 800 pound monster Alabama, are very impressed with the body of work of several Big 10 conference teams. Among these is Northwestern, which is still flying below the radar on many rankings, but our rankings feel that they are a strong contender.
Stay tuned for this coming weekend’s games. The only certainty is more surprises.
by M. C. Jennings | Nov 8, 2016 | Academics, COBA Faculty, Current Students, Research
by guest blogger and marketing major from Japan, Noah Bastable
Hello wildcats and welcome back to our weekly blog post on the Jessup Pope College Football Rankings!
This week is the tenth week of college football and we’d like to talk you through some noticeable changes since last week.
Our top four teams – Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin – remain the same but their order has switched.
LSU lost to Alabama but they went up in the rankings from 16th to 11th. The score was close until Alabama broke the scoreless game in the last quarter by scoring 10 points.
Ole Miss shot up through the rankings from 28th to 17th after a 37-27 win against the Georgia Southern Eagles.
Nebraska went down from 12th to 20th after their staggering 62-3 loss to Ohio State.
The most interesting turnout, however, was one between two of our home state teams, Baylor and TCU. TCU “clobbered”, as Ryan Jessup put it, the Bears 62-22 defeating them so badly that their running back was sidelined for attitude issues. Perhaps there is a silver lining in the Bears-Frogs game, the lesson learned that no matter how rough a game may get, one must always maintain a right attitude.
That is it for this week. Come back and check us out again next week for more of the new and improved Jessup Pope College Football rankings! Go Wildcats!!
